Severe Thunderstorm Warning 349, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
407 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

PER REASONS STATED IN THE MORNING UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW
TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH BETTER FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE ARKLATEX REGION AND
SEA BREEZE ENHANCED COASTAL CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER IT
APPEARS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM THESE FORCING MECHANISMS WILL BE
CONVERGING OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND FARTHER EAST AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING. SO HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS FOR THE EARLY EVENING. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A LIMITED THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. HAVE
EXPANDED THE AREA TO INCLUDE AREAS ALONG/N OF THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR
WHERE GREATER COMBINATION OF FORCING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR (~35 KTS)
WILL EXIST. FARTHER SOUTH...GREATER HEATING HAS RESULTED IN STEEPER
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES (~8.5 DEG C/KM)...AND WITH THE ORGANIZED
COASTAL CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION...THERE WILL BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUST POTENTIAL GIVEN GREATER DOWNDRAFT
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE. OVERALL...THE GREATER CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING SHOULD BE MAINLY
ALONG/N OF HWY 82 AND OVER NE LA INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MS. LOOK FOR STORMS TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET WITH GENERALLY
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED INFLUENCE FROM THE
WESTERLIES COULD SUPPORT ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY IF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT SHEARS OUT AND
TAILS BACK ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT MORE
ROBUST CONVECTIVE CHANCES MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY WHEN A
SIGNIFICANTNORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR WHERE DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION WILL BE
GREATER. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE LESS...WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES (VERTICAL TOTALS NEAR 30) AND STRONG MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...THERE MAY BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO ORGANIZE AND
WE HAVE ADDED THIS MENTION TO THE HWO/GRAPHICS. THE FORECAST CAVEAT
IS THAT CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE MORNING OR EVEN LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AND MAKE STORM INTENSITY MORE
MARGINAL AND MORE OF THE SPS VARIETY. LOOK FOR MUCH DRIER AIR TO
BEGIN BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT. /EC/

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND KEEPS THE WARM MOIST
AIR AT BAY. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE DEPTH AND POSITION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...SO NOT SURE HOW MUCH COOL CANADIAN AIR SINK
SOUTH...BUT IT WILL STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS.
LOWER TO MID 60S FOR A FEW NIGHTS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90 FOR A FEW DAYS WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE. HAVE FOLLOWED CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AND POPS WHICH STILL LOOK GOOD. /07/

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION FROM LOUISIANA. THESE MAY AFFECT THE KGLH/KGWO TAF SITES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS KJAN CLOSER TO 00Z. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT EASTERN SITES(KHBG/KMEI/KGTR) WILL BE LATER TO SEE
STORMS IF THEY SEE ANY AT ALL. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE BRIEF MVFR
REDUCTION IN VIS AND POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 01-03Z. OUTSIDE OF RAIN
AREAS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE DAYBREAK BUT SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY AND
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  94  73  93 /  38  27  21  40
MERIDIAN      72  92  72  92 /  33  29  18  40
VICKSBURG     73  95  72  94 /  34  23  20  40
HATTIESBURG   75  95  75  95 /  37  27  14  40
NATCHEZ       73  93  73  92 /  20  22  13  40
GREENVILLE    72  94  73  89 /  57  34  29  32
GREENWOOD     72  92  72  89 /  56  30  23  32

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

EC/07/28

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
240 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
231945-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
240 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO
60 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA. DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND MONDAY.

28

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
502 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

MSZ053-054-059-222230-
CLAIBORNE MS-JEFFERSON MS-COPIAH MS-
502 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN COPIAH...
SOUTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE AND NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 530
PM CDT...

AT 501 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER PEYTON...OR 22 MILES WEST OF HAZLEHURST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BARLOW AROUND 510 PM CDT.
  CARPENTER AND DENTVILLE AROUND 530 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3183 9089 3205 9072 3205 9062 3190 9037
      3169 9074
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 220DEG 18KT 3186 9078

10

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
603 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

MSZ048-049-055-222330-
SIMPSON MS-HINDS MS-RANKIN MS-
603 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN RANKIN...
NORTHWESTERN SIMPSON AND SOUTHEASTERN HINDS COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM
CDT...

AT 602 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER WHITES...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BYRAM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FLORENCE AROUND 625 PM CDT.
  RICHLAND...STAR AND MONTEREY AROUND 630 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3197 9018 3201 9023 3202 9022 3202 9025
      3203 9025 3204 9023 3205 9023 3205 9028
      3211 9035 3226 9013 3213 8991
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 227DEG 13KT 3209 9020

10

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
605 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

ARZ074-075-222330-
ASHLEY AR-CHICOT AR-
605 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL CHICOT AND EASTERN
ASHLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 605 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR SNYDER...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF WILMOT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SNYDER AROUND 620 PM CDT.
  PORTLAND AND MONTROSE AROUND 630 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3339 9158 3339 9156 3322 9136 3308 9160
      3321 9175
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 227DEG 13KT 3320 9162

10

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
631 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

MSZ049-230000-
RANKIN MS-
631 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN RANKIN COUNTY UNTIL 700
PM CDT...

AT 630 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR BRANDON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BRANDON AROUND 635 PM CDT.
  PELAHATCHIE AROUND 700 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3219 9020 3220 9018 3221 9019 3223 9019
      3223 9020 3225 9021 3239 9003 3230 8973
      3223 8973 3211 8984 3207 9012
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 226DEG 16KT 3223 8999

10

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
633 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

ARZ074-075-230000-
ASHLEY AR-CHICOT AR-
633 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN CHICOT AND NORTHEASTERN
ASHLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 632 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR PORTLAND...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF WILMOT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MONTROSE AROUND 650 PM CDT.
  LAKE VILLAGE AROUND 700 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3339 9163 3339 9146 3348 9146 3349 9144
      3329 9116 3306 9145 3336 9169
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 216DEG 16KT 3318 9147

10

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