Severe Thunderstorm Warning 327, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
330 PM CDT AUG 10 2015

.SHORT TERM(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED THE REGION UNDER THE MEAN RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
ARKLATEX REGION. A MORNING MCS HAD SENT A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE NORTH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS PUSHING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AREA RADARS WERE PICKING UP SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS AS OF MID AFTERNOON
RANGED FROM THE LOWER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. A WELCOME PATTERN
CHANGE IS COMING FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE MEAN RIDGE
CENTER WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES...WHILE
AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN US. FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO INCREASE TO SCATTERED COVERAGE
OVER SOME OF THE CWA. WITH CURRENT TRENDS SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT
REACH EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA...BUT HAVE OPTED TO LET THAT
WARNING EXPIRE AT 7 PM. FOR TONIGHT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL START
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW OUR RAIN CHANCES TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
FOR TUESDAY THE FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE REGION. THERE MAY BE A MARGINAL RISK OF SOME SEVERE IN THE
SOUTH HALF...BUT THERE ARE SOME ISSUES WITH THAT. IT WILL DEPEND ON
THE WHAT HAPPENS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CONVECTION
WISE. I COULD SEE SOME MORNING ACTIVITY AFFECTING AIR MASS RECOVERY.
SO WITH THAT IN MIND WILL LET THE MID SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT
THAT. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. HEAT INDICES WILL BE FROM 106 TO 110 FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY EXTENDING OVER MOST OF THE REGION. INDICES NORTH OF THE
ADVISORY AREA WILL BE AT 105. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT OUR CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL PUSH SOUTH. SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AS WE GET SOME 60S DEWPOINTS COMING IN. THIS WILL SEND
READINGS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTH. AS
WE PUSH INTO WEDNESDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND IT WILL TAKE THE LAST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE PINEBELT AREA
WITH IT. BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPS WILL MODERATE SOME WITH HIGHS IN THE
90-94 RANGE. THE 60S DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA...MAKING FOR LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS WILL BE ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
60S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST. THE MIDDLE 60S WILL BE
AROUND FIVE DEGREES LOWER THAN SEASONAL READINGS./17/

.LONGTERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF NEEDED RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME
FIXED BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES AND THE STUBBORN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION.  NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. PWATS WILL GO DOWN TO
AROUND 0.75 INCH ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE RISING TO AROUND
1.8 INCHES BY MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
90S...THE NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL HELP TO MAKE FOR MORE TOLERABLE
CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT AS LOWS FALL INTO
THE 60S AND 70S.  AS EXPECTED THOUGH...DEW POINTS WILL MODERATE UP
SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THE CHANCES OF AT LEAST SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION RETURNING TO THE FORECAST SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. 17/19/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING AT MOST
TERMINALS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH AND EAST MS, POSSIBLE IMPACTING JAN/
HKS, MEI, AND HBG/PIB. BRIEF CIG/VISBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO +RA AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. LATER TONIGHT, A SHORT
PERIOD OF PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK, MAINLY AT SITES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       78  98  76  93 /  26  31  28   4
MERIDIAN      75  94  75  92 /  41  47  33   6
VICKSBURG     78  99  75  93 /  20  24  23   4
HATTIESBURG   77  98  76  94 /  14  54  40  14
NATCHEZ       79  98  75  93 /  17  33  27  10
GREENVILLE    78  96  73  91 /  18  17   7   4
GREENWOOD     76  95  73  90 /  27  18   9   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-
     019-025>066-072>074.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     MSZ034>037-040>045-047>066-072>074.

LA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-
     075.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     ARZ074-075.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
242 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>028-034>036-
040>043-047>049-053-054-059>061-111945-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
242 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...EXTREME
TIMING...EXTREME THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND AN ELEVATED THREAT TUESDAY
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON

HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES OF 110 TO
115 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. ON TUESDAY...HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO THE 105 TO 110 RANGE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

MSZ029>033-037>039-044>046-050>052-055>058-062>066-072>074-111945-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-
LAMAR-FORREST-
242 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...SIGNIFICANT
TIMING...SIGNIFICANT THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND A LIMITED TO ELEVATED
THREAT TUESDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON

HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES OF 110 TO
115 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. ON TUESDAY...HEAT
INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO THE 105 TO 110 RANGE GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20. NORTH OF I-20, HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
TO THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

DL

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*EXCESSIVE HEAT*
EXTREME...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN 110 DEGREES FOR 3 OR
 MORE DAYS IN A ROW AND/OR AIR TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 107
 DEGREES.
SIGNIFICANT...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN 110 DEGREES
 AND/OR AIR TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES.
ELEVATED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX 105 TO 110 DEGREES AND/OR AIR
 TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 103 DEGREES.
LIMITED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX NEAR 105 DEGREES AND/OR AIR
 TEMPERATURES 100 TO 103 DEGREES.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
416 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

MSZ061-062-102200-
LINCOLN MS-FRANKLIN MS-
416 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND
WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 416 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER VAUGHN...OR 8 MILES WEST OF BROOKHAVEN...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  VAUGHN AROUND 420 PM CDT.
  MCCALL CREEK AROUND 450 PM CDT.
  WEST LINCOLN AROUND 455 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3166 9069 3165 9048 3141 9044 3141 9075
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 001DEG 9KT 3159 9059

DB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
422 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

MSZ051-057-102215-
JASPER MS-NEWTON MS-
422 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN NEWTON AND
NORTHWESTERN JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 422 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER LAWRENCE...OR NEAR NEWTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  NEWTON AROUND 430 PM CDT.
  LAWRENCE AROUND 435 PM CDT.
  ROBERTS AND GARLANDVILLE AROUND 515 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3214 8932 3221 8932 3242 8930 3242 8909
      3215 8904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 001DEG 8KT 3235 8920

DB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
427 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

MSZ049-050-102215-
RANKIN MS-SCOTT MS-
427 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL RANKIN AND
SOUTHWESTERN SCOTT COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 427 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER PELAHATCHIE...OR 7 MILES WEST OF MORTON...MOVING SOUTH AT 10
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PELAHATCHIE AROUND 440 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3222 8973 3221 8977 3220 8990 3238 8988
      3238 8969 3222 8969
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 001DEG 8KT 3234 8979

DB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
504 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

MSZ056-102245-
SMITH MS-
504 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN SMITH COUNTY UNTIL 545
PM CDT...

AT 504 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR RALEIGH...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF MAGEE...MOVING SOUTH AT 15
MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TAYLORSVILLE AROUND 540 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE MIZE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3201 8964 3201 8943 3181 8935 3179 8963
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 350DEG 12KT 3194 8954

DB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
526 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

MSZ055-102315-
SIMPSON MS-
526 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN SIMPSON COUNTY
UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 526 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER SANATORIUM...OR NEAR MAGEE...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SANATORIUM AROUND 540 PM CDT.
  MAGEE AROUND 610 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3177 8986 3198 8984 3198 8966 3183 8965
      3178 8965 3178 8966
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 357DEG 6KT 3192 8976

DB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
530 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

MSZ052-102315-
LAUDERDALE MS-
530 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT LAUDERDALE COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM
CDT...

AT 530 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR MARION...OR NEAR MERIDIAN STATION...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MARION AROUND 535 PM CDT.
  LAUDERDALE AROUND 540 PM CDT.
  TOOMSUBA AROUND 555 PM CDT.
  KEWANEE AROUND 600 PM CDT.
  ALAMUCHA AROUND 605 PM CDT.
  INCREASE AROUND 610 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3223 8843 3223 8876 3237 8891 3258 8866
      3258 8860 3246 8840
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 314DEG 19KT 3248 8864

DB