Severe Thunderstorm Warning 203, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
405 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

.DISCUSSION... THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS IS
OBVIOUSLY TOO FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON TO LIMIT OUR LOCAL RAIN
CHANCES. CURRENTLY GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS
RIDGE IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR MID JUNE AND IS WORKING WITH AMBIENT
DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND FLOW LEVELS
ARE SUCH THAT SOME STORMS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WITH A
LIMITED POTENTIAL IN MOST AREAS OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 OR 60 MPH.
THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BUT MAY BE MOST FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN
ZONES AND IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS NOT BEEN
WORKED OVER ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS EVENING EXPECT
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO MAINLY BE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION
WITH LOW CLOUDS BUILDING TOWARD DAWN.

THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION FOR TOMORROW LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY EXCEPT
FOR THE FACT THAT THE SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE WILL BE TRYING TO EXERT
ITS INFLUENCE A LITTLE MORE OVER OUR REGION. EVEN SO...MODEL
CONSENSUS STILL EXPECTS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO OUR REGION TO BE RELATIVELY STOUT...AND THIS ALONE
SHOULD ENSURE A FAIR AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONSIDERING A RELATIVE LACK OF THERMAL CAPPING. TODAY CONVECTION HAS
BEEN PRETTY WIDESPREAD IN A HOMOGENEOUS FASHION BUT FOR TOMORROW THE
MORE NUMEROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED WEST OF THE I-55
CORRIDOR. LIKE TODAY...SOME GUSTY STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
TOMORROW BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW TO MAKE AN INFORMED DECISION ON WHETHER LOW LEVEL SHEAR /
INSTABILITY COMBOS WILL BE ENOUGH TO GET MORE THAN A STRAY SEVERE
STORM. ERGO...THE HWO FOR TOMORROW LEFT CLEAR FOR NOW.

GOING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK ATTENTION WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ON THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOW IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO TAKE SHAPE AND ADVANCE
TOWARD THE SE TX COAST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY BE FOCUSED WEST OF OUR REGION AND THEREFORE
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES SHOULD BECOME MORE AND MORE CONFINED TO
WESTERN ZONES AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES NOSING IN FROM THE EAST.
OF COURSE HEAT WILL BUILD A LITTLE (ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN HALF OF
ZONES) IF THE AFTERNOON SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY DOES DECREASE.

IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL DISTURBANCE COMING INLAND INTO SE TX AND
THEN CURVING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE....AND THEN REMAINING AN
INTACT ENTITY CROSSING EAST THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. THIS SCENARIO
COULD RAMP BACK UP RAIN CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF OUR REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH IT IS A LITTLE EARLY TO HAVE MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN EVENTUAL OUTCOMES. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...AFTER STARTING OFF THE MORNING WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO STRATUS...START OF DAYTIME MIXING HAS ALLOWED
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR MOST LOCATIONS. MAIN FOCUS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY TSRA WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE DUE TO VERY HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS. HRRR RUNS
IMPLY FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
MODERATELY STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW ALLOWS STORMS TO PROPAGATE AND HAVE
FAIRLY HIGH COVERAGE. HENCE HAVE AT LEAST TEMPO TSRA MOST SITES AND
WILL AMD AS NEEDED TO SHOW CATEGORICAL IMPACTS BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS. EXPECT REPEAT OF WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT DUE
TO STRATUS WITH FAIRLY SIMILAR SETUP TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED THIS
MORNING.   /AEG/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  89  72  90 /  27  37  13  28
MERIDIAN      69  89  69  91 /  19  22  10  16
VICKSBURG     71  89  72  90 /  34  51  18  42
HATTIESBURG   72  90  71  90 /  28  43  12  37
NATCHEZ       72  86  73  88 /  36  62  19  47
GREENVILLE    72  89  72  90 /  35  51  27  31
GREENWOOD     72  90  71  91 /  29  33  19  18

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

BB/AEG/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
129 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

ARZ074-LAZ007-008-015-023-024-026-MSZ029>031-033-039-072>074-
141830-
ASHLEY-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-RICHLAND-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-
CONCORDIA-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-OKTIBBEHA-NOXUBEE-MARION-LAMAR-
FORREST-
129 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

ARZ075-LAZ009-016-025-MSZ018-019-025>028-032-034>038-040>066-
141830-
CHICOT-EAST CARROLL-MADISON-TENSAS-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-
GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-
ATTALA-WINSTON-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
129 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
A FEW OF THE MOST INTENSE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THE ASSOCIATED RISKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.

08

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
436 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0347 PM     TSTM WND GST     SSW CLINTON             32.34N 90.34W
06/13/2015  E50.00 MPH       HINDS              MS   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            POWER LINE DOWNED ON I-20 AT CLINTON-RAYMOND RD

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
439 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 S VICKSBURG           32.26N 90.87W
06/13/2015                   WARREN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY 61 SOUTH HAS ONE LANE COMPLETELY COVERED IN
            WATER.

0410 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST VICKSBURG               32.33N 90.87W
06/13/2015  E50.00 MPH       WARREN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON TUCKER RD.

0410 PM     FLASH FLOOD      VICKSBURG               32.33N 90.87W
06/13/2015                   WARREN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STREET FLOODING ON FARMER STREET.

&&

AW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
440 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TSTM WND GST     VICKSBURG               32.33N 90.87W
06/13/2015  E50.00 MPH       WARREN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON TUCKER RD.

&&

AW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
449 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

MSZ026>030-032-033-132230-
OKTIBBEHA MS-WEBSTER MS-CARROLL MS-GRENADA MS-MONTGOMERY MS-CLAY MS-
CHOCTAW MS-
449 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR...

AT 449 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR STARKVILLE TO NEAR VAIDEN...AND
MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MULDROW AROUND 455 PM CDT.
  WINONA AROUND 505 PM CDT.
  WEST POINT...NORTH CARROLLTON AND GRIFFITH AROUND 510 PM CDT.
  PALA ALTO AROUND 520 PM CDT.
  DUCK HILL AROUND 525 PM CDT.
  JEFFERSON AROUND 530 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE CARROLLTON...MANTEE
AND WALTHALL.

LAT...LON 3368 8872 3368 8867 3344 8868 3333 8989
      3364 8999 3372 8945 3372 8919 3374 8919
      3374 8904 3375 8903 3376 8893 3380 8893
      3381 8885 3381 8872
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 174DEG 23KT 3349 8877 3338 8982

DL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
457 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

MSZ035-042-132230-
YAZOO MS-HUMPHREYS MS-
457 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HUMPHREYS AND NORTHWESTERN YAZOO
COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM CDT...

AT 456 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIDNIGHT...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAZOO CITY...
MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
YAZOO CITY...BELZONI...MIDNIGHT...SILVER CITY AND LOUISE.

LAT...LON 3309 9038 3312 9043 3306 9043 3304 9038
      3302 9038 3301 9036 3290 9034 3283 9064
      3292 9067 3292 9066 3309 9066 3310 9070
      3312 9070 3316 9069 3317 9068 3324 9041
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 166DEG 23KT 3295 9052

DL

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