Severe Thunderstorm Warning 189, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
341 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...AFTERNOON SATELLITE SHOWS
SCT CU FIELD ACROSS AREA WITH WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING IN
SEVERAL SPOTS. CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTH AND EAST WHERE INFLUENCE OF
MID/UPPER SHEAR ZONE EXISTS. TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 90F...AND
SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS STRONGEST INSTABILITY OVER WRN AREAS AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE NEAR 4000 J/KG. COULD BE A
FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS PRIMARILY IN THIS AREA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT AS MENTIONED THIS MORNING DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT
MENTION IN HWO. ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES EXPECTED IN OVERALL PATTERN
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SW INTO NW
GULF AND STRONGER MID LEVEL SYSTEM DROPS INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS...
RESULTING IN DEEPER MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS OUR AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ON THU WITH POPS TRENDING
HIGHER IN THE SE AREAS.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE PATTERN CONTINUE TO EVOLVE...WITH
LOW/MID LEVEL BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING NEAR SE CONUS COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL ENABLE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TO BE PULLED NORTH INTO OUR AREA. AXIS OF
GREATEST MOISTURE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE FOCUSED IN WESTERN
AREAS...WHERE BY SAT AFTERNOON GFS/EC SHOW PW VALUES REACHING NEAR
2.25 INCHES...WHICH WOULD BE NEAR DAILY MAX FOR MID JUNE. DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH TO OUR EAST WILL RESULT IN
WAVES OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. EVEN THOUGH FLOW
WILL BE INCREASING IT WILL GENERALLY BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AND SIMILAR IN
STRENGTH...MEANING THAT CORFIDI VECTOR MAGNITUDES WILL BE SMALL...
GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. HENCE COULD BE SLOW MOVING...TRAINING AND
EFFICIENT SHRA/TSRA WITH SOME FLOODING ISSUES...AGAIN MAINLY IN WEST
WHERE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE ALSO MORE CONCERNING FOR FLOOD
ISSUES. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY STORMS AS
850 MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KT AT TIMES WHICH COULD
RESULT IN GUSTS DUE TO MOMENTUM TRANSPORT EVEN WITH WEAKER
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED AND BC MOS
BLEND SEEMS FINE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...PATTERN OF FRIDAY/SATURDAY
WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE. EXPECT HIGH
POPS WITH GREATEST POPS AND THREAT FOR HEAVIER QPF IN WESTERN AREAS.
NEXT EVOLUTION IN THE PATTERN COMES DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENS EVEN FURTHER AND BUILDS MORE
TO THE W INTO ARKLAMISS. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER MOISTURE BEING
SHUNTED MORE TO OUR WEST...HENCE AN ASSOCIATED LOWERING OF POPS WITH
CONVECTION BECOMING MORE TYPICALLY DIURNAL IN NATURE. LOW LEVEL TEMPS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WARM...WITH 925 AND 850 MB TEMPS IN MODELS
SUPPORTING MID 90S IN MANY AREAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENT
MAX TEMP GUIDANCE FROM MODELS IS NOT QUITE THIS WARM...BUT BUMPED UP
MAXES A DEG OR TWO TUE/WED...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE RAINFALL
HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS THUS POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING GREATER DIURNAL RANGES. LOW LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BE
WARMEST THIS AREA ALONG WITH LEAST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL CLOSER TO MID
LEVEL HIGH. /AEG/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR NEARLY ALL OF THIS TAF
PERIOD. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE SOME ISO/SCT
CONVECTION OCCURRING AND WILL HAVE TO AMD SITES WHERE ACTIVITY GETS
CLOSE TO. OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR A SITE OR TWO TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR VIS WITH HBG HAVING SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN MVFR CEILING BY 11Z.
/CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  89  70  86 /  21  33  27  55
MERIDIAN      68  87  69  87 /  27  37  29  53
VICKSBURG     70  90  70  87 /  17  27  23  54
HATTIESBURG   70  90  69  87 /  33  47  34  57
NATCHEZ       70  88  69  86 /  24  33  20  56
GREENVILLE    72  91  72  88 /  10  20  11  45
GREENWOOD     71  90  71  87 /  12  23  20  52

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AEG/CME

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
229 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
111930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
229 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

CME

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

NO SHORT TERM HAZARDS EXPECTED.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
448 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     TSTM WND GST     MERIDIAN                32.38N 88.71W
06/10/2015  M74 MPH          LAUDERDALE         MS   ASOS

            64 KNOT PEAK WIND GUST MEASURED AT MERIDIAN KEY FIELD

&&

BRYANT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
453 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             MERIDIAN                32.38N 88.71W
06/10/2015  E1.00 INCH       LAUDERDALE         MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN THE WEST SIDE OF THE CITY

&&

BRYANT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
511 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

LAZ024-026-102245-
CONCORDIA LA-CATAHOULA LA-
511 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL CONCORDIA AND
SOUTHWESTERN CATAHOULA PARISHES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 510 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR LARTO...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LARTO AND NEW ERA AROUND 520 PM CDT.
  MAYNA AROUND 535 PM CDT.
  WALTERS AROUND 545 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3130 9201 3129 9201 3130 9200 3133 9201
      3156 9201 3154 9173 3125 9172 3126 9183
      3126 9185 3130 9191 3130 9193 3126 9195
      3127 9200 3128 9200 3128 9202 3129 9202
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 185DEG 14KT 3134 9194

DB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
513 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

MSZ038-102245-
WINSTON MS-
513 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN WINSTON COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM CDT...

AT 512 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR CENTER RIDGE...OR NEAR LOUISVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN WINSTON
COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...NOXAPATER.

LAT...LON 3314 8918 3311 8883 3294 8890 3296 8923
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 022DEG 6KT 3305 8901

DB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
519 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

MSZ037-102245-
ATTALA MS-
519 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ATTALA COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM CDT...

AT 519 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR HESTERVILLE...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF KOSCIUSKO...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 5 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  KOSCIUSKO AROUND 545 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE ETHEL.

LAT...LON 3315 8971 3327 8956 3309 8932 3300 8962
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 334DEG 6KT 3316 8958

DB

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