Severe Thunderstorm Warning 174, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1131 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY TRY TO SLIDE EAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY...WHILE A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW BEGINNING TO SWING INTO THE WESTERN
FRINGES OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES...AN AREA OF SHOWERS...ALONG WITH AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO...CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND OUT OF MY NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL ZONES...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY
TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

THE ENTIRE DAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT FOR MOST RESIDENTS ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS.  HOWEVER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AFTERNOON HEATING
ENSUES...AND BOTH THE TROUGH AND FRONT DRIFT FURTHER EAST...SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS.  THIS TIMING IS
MUCH LIKE THE PATTERN WE'VE OBSERVED WITH CONVECTION THE PAST FEW
DAYS.  HIGH-RES MODELS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AS WELL...WITH THE HRRR
APPEARING TO GIVE THE BEST REPRESENTATION OF WHAT'S CURRENTLY
UNFOLDING.

DESPITE THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH IN CLOSER PROXIMIY TO THE CWA
TODAY...I BELIEVE YESTERDAY'S WIDESPREAD AND LONGER LIVED CONVECTION
WORKED OVER THE AIRMASS A BIT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.  THIS IS
EVIDENT BY LESS IMPRESSIVE THERMAL PROFILES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
WHILE INSTABILITY CURRENTLY LOOKS MARGINAL TODAY AS A RESULT...THERE
IS THE PRESENCE OF SLIGHTLY BETTER WIND SHEAR TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY.  THIS COULD YEILD A FEW PULSE AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...ALONG WITH SOME HAIL.  IN
ADDITION...WITH A CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
ALSO RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.  THIS WILL CERTAINLY
BE THE CASE FROM STORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME LOCALES IN A SHORT
DURATION...OR IF STORMS MOVE OVER THE FEW AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED
MEASURABLE RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.

CURRENT FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA TODAY.  BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS AND EARLIER RAINFALL OVER THE
DELTA THIS MORNING...I HAVE LOWERED HIGHS THERE A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
I'LL ALSO ADJUST REMAINING GRINDS TO BETTER FIT WITH CURRENT TRENDS
AND EXPECTATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS STILL REMAIN THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD
SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. RAIN MOVING THROUGH WILL KEEP
THESE LOWER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE AND ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BRING
MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS TO TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SOME STORMS COULD CONTAIN
GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. AWAY FROM STORMS GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. /28/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP
REVEALS AN UPPER TROUGH NOT TOO SHABBY FOR LAST-DAY-OF-MAY STANDARDS
SET TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY. IN RESPONSE MODELS HAVE
SUBTLY INCREASED THEIR RESPECTIVE EXPECTATIONS OF SHEAR AND LIFT (AND
ALSO PRECIPITATION) ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALREADY
THIS LIFT JUXTAPOSED WITH MODEST NORTHWARD GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS
BRINGING A LOOSE ORGANIZATION OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE ARKLAMISS DELTA AT THIS EARLY HOUR. NONE OF THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY LOOKS PARTICULARLY VIGOROUS...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL IN MANY AREAS LATER TODAY FOR AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AND
BUILDING INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH
WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. IN
ADDITION...DUAL POL RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM THE PAST FEW
DAYS SHOWS LOCALIZED SPOTS HAVE RECEIVED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN. IF
ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN POCKETS EXPECTED TODAY LINE UP WITH
THE AREAS DOUSED PRIOR THEN A FEW FLOODING ISSUES COULD MANIFEST.
BOTH A LIMITED SEVERE AND LIMITED FLOODING RISK WILL THEREFORE
MENTION IN THE HWO FOR TODAY.

MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN HAVING A BIT OF TROUBLE FIGURING THE EXACT
DETAILS OF HOW FAR THIS INCOMING TROUGH AXIS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS BEFORE STARTING TO CUT-OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
LATE MONDAY. THE ULTIMATE IMPLICATIONS OF THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE
TUESDAY AND THEREAFTER AND THUS HANDLED IN THE LONG RANGE PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. FOR THE SHORT TERM...CONFIDENCE REMAINS PRETTY HIGH
THAT DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL
INCREASINGLY GET SEQUESTERED INTO SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE HEART
OF THE REGION. THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO RULE OUT RAIN
CHANCES IN NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH ANY LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN OR STRONGER STORM ISSUES BEYOND EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD
BE CONFINED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. FOR NOW WE WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING
ANYTHING IN THE HWO FOR MONDAY GIVEN COMBINATION OF MARGINAL
EVALUATED THREAT LEVELS AND PLACEMENT UNCERTAINTIES. /BB/

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. AFTER RECENTLY
TRENDING TOWARD A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE SOLUTION FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK...THE MODELS HAVE REVERSED THEIR TRENDS A BIT AND NOW LEAN
TOWARD A SLOWER AND MORE CUT-OFF SCENARIO WITH THE BASE OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST SOME DIURNAL
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY FOR THE AREA PRIMARILY
SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR.

THE GEFS/GFS ARE SLOWEST WITH THE PATTERN AND FARTHEST WEST WITH THE
LOW CENTER...BUT EVEN SO...THE GREATEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LIFT IS
FORECAST TO SET UP EAST OF THE ARKLAMISS. THE ECWMF/ECENS ARE FARTHER
EAST AND WOULD SUGGEST DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT GIVEN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO CUT OFF BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERS DISPLACED FROM THE
WESTERLIES...WOULD LEAN SOME TOWARD THE GEFS/GFS SOLUTIONS AT THIS
POINT.IN ANY CASE...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MODEST AND NOT EXPECTING
MUCH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       84  66  82  62 /  73  35  42  28
MERIDIAN      85  65  82  62 /  66  46  57  39
VICKSBURG     82  66  82  61 /  63  28  36  18
HATTIESBURG   86  67  85  66 /  62  39  61  38
NATCHEZ       82  67  82  62 /  63  37  39  20
GREENVILLE    78  64  80  62 /  56  25  26  12
GREENWOOD     79  65  80  61 /  62  27  30  16

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

19/28

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