Severe Thunderstorm Warning 160, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WORDING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
450 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

A VORTEX AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY OVER THE ARKLATEX MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL INTERACT WITH AN
INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS (MLCAPE ~2000 J/KG/PRECIP WATER ~1.6
INCHES) CURRENTLY ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE MS RIVER. STRONGER
FORCING WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE TSTMS...BUT RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW
AND EVENTUALLY NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL HELP TO LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. HAVING SAID THAT...A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE A CONCERN...MAINLY IN UPPER
PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION THIS EVENING. CURRENT
SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS WILL DIMINISH WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THESE STORMS OCCASIONALLY PULSE UP ENOUGH
TO BECOME STRONG...BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS.

AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...CYCLONIC FLOW
MAY HELP TO KEEP SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES GOING IN SPITE OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY OVER NW PORTIONS OF THE REGION. A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE ARKLATEX AND
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. HAVE INCREASED GUIDANCE POPS SOME OVER SE PORTIONS
OF MS SATURDAY AFTN AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF PUSH STRONGER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR INTO THE PINE BELT
REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAKENING INITIAL WAVE. THEN
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REFOCUS AGAIN FARTHER WEST SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS GOTTEN A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST
FORECAST WITH RAIN CHANCES SHIFTED MORE TO THE EAST. OVERALL...THERE
IS STILL SOME CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS REDUCED SOMEWHAT BY THE FLUX IN MODEL TIMING AND
LIKELY MESOSCALE INFLUENCES THAT MAKE PICKING OUT A SPECIFIC AREA A
TOUGH TASK SO FAR IN ADVANCE. AND THE SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD BE
MITIGATED BY CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP WHICH WOULD LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL OR
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HAZARD PRODUCTS AT THIS POINT. BUT DEPENDING
ON HOW ACTIVITY EVOLVES TONIGHT...FOLKS SHOULD MONITOR FOR MORE
SPECIFIC HAZARD PRODUCTS SATURDAY MORNING.

IN THE LONG TERM...STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE SITUATION GIVEN THAT THE
ECMWF/ECENS GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS/GEFS WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY/CUTOFF LOW PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK. /EC/

LONG TERM...EARLY/MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SOME UNCERTAINTY IS AGAIN
CREEPING INTO THE LONG TERM FORECAST THIS SHIFT DUE TO THE LATEST
OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN MODEL RUN COMING WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE TAKE
ON THE TROUGH COMING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY. PREVIOUS MODEL
CONSENSUS WAS STRONGLY IN FAVOR OF THIS TROUGH ENERGY CUTTING OFF
OVER TOP OF OUR REGION AND SWIRLING OVERHEAD WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
CONSENSUS STILL FAVORS THIS SOLUTION BUT THE MENTIONED EURO IDEA
REDUCES CONFIDENCE AND SUGGESTS SOME CHANCE THAT PROLONGED ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES MIGHT SHIFT EAST OF OUR REGION FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED.

BY MONDAY REPOSITIONING OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED AXES OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD FUEL THE HIGHEST
AMOUNT OF DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM PRODUCTION EAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE.
SOME STORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY PERSIST BACK WEST INTO THE ARKLAMISS
DELTA AS WELL ON MONDAY...BUT THIS PROSPECT COULD POTENTIALLY CHANGE
IF THE EURO IS CORRECT WITH ITS LATEST PROGRESSIVE TAKE OF UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVEMENT.

THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY COULD BE IMPACTED A GREAT
DEAL IF THIS TROUGH IS INDEED PROGRESSIVE AND CUTS OFF FROM THE JET-
LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS TO OUR EAST. IN THAT CASE AFTERNOON SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES COULD BE MUCH MORE LIMITED THAN WHAT THE FORECAST
CURRENTLY REPRESENTS (ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-55) WHILE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES MAY TREND WARMER. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...THE CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENT MODEL SOLUTION OF TROUGH
ENERGY CUTTING OFF OVERHEAD STILL ARGUES FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE WEEK WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP
KEEPING TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. HOPEFULLY BY THIS TIME TOMORROW
MODEL CONSENSUS WILL STRENGTHEN REGARDING SOLUTIONS FOR OUR REGION
OVER THIS TIME FRAME. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH AND COULD
AFFECT A TAF SITE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COULD AFFECT WESTERN TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH. WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
THERE COULD BE CEILING AND VIS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TO MVFR/IFR
CATEGORIES. STRATUS AND IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
/28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  85  67  84 /  36  58  52  60
MERIDIAN      67  86  67  85 /  20  50  44  60
VICKSBURG     70  84  67  83 /  59  63  53  53
HATTIESBURG   67  88  68  86 /  20  50  34  60
NATCHEZ       70  83  67  83 /  45  59  50  58
GREENVILLE    71  83  68  81 /  69  65  45  45
GREENWOOD     70  83  67  82 /  46  63  50  51

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

EC/BB/28

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
253 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
302000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
253 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

28

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

NO SHORT TERM HAZARDS EXPECTED.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
700 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MSZ025-035-300030-
LEFLORE MS-HUMPHREYS MS-
700 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN HUMPHREYS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LEFLORE COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 700 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER BELZONI...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SWIFTOWN AROUND 720 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3311 9041 3311 9057 3326 9059 3327 9057
      3327 9056 3328 9056 3331 9052 3334 9034
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 176DEG 23KT 3316 9047

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
729 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MSZ019-025-300100-
LEFLORE MS-SUNFLOWER MS-
729 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN SUNFLOWER AND
SOUTHWESTERN LEFLORE COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 729 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR MOORHEAD...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MOORHEAD AROUND 735 PM CDT.
  ITTA BENA AROUND 745 PM CDT.
  SUNFLOWER AROUND 750 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE MORGAN CITY.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3334 9033 3333 9058 3357 9066 3358 9030
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 172DEG 26KT 3339 9046

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
742 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LAZ007-300115-
MOREHOUSE LA-
742 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN MOREHOUSE PARISH
UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 742 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES WEST OF BASTROP...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BASTROP AROUND 745 PM CDT.
  BEEKMAN AROUND 800 PM CDT.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3301 9207 3301 9176 3300 9176 3268 9196
      3269 9196 3271 9197 3270 9202 3271 9204
      3271 9206 3273 9207 3274 9205 3276 9206
      3280 9205 3283 9207 3284 9206 3287 9208
      3293 9207
TIME...MOT...LOC 0042Z 201DEG 31KT 3279 9203

CME

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