Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1030 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...MORNING MCS MOVING ACROSS MY LOUISIANA PARISHES IS SLOWLY
WEAKENING AND DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF FLOODING IN CHICOT COUNTY. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS MORNING MCS WILL HAVE
SOME INFLUENCE IN HOW THIS AFTERNOON EVOLVES BUT I FEEL THAT THE
CURRENT SCENARIO AS PRESENTED BY THE HRRR SHOWS IT FAIRLY WELL. THIS
MCS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST. IT SHOULD LAY
OUT SOME KIND OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WILL HELP INITIATE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON FURTHER EAST IN AN AIRMASS THAT HAS LARELY BEEN UNTAPPED BY
THIS MORNING CONVECTION. THIS AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR...WILL HAVE HAD SUFFICIENT TIME TO HEAT UP AS
READINGS IN THAT AREA ARE ALREADY APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. MORNING
SOUNDING/MICROBURST ANALYSIS INDICATED A RATHER UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAT
THESE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO WITH VERTICAL TOTALS AROUND
28-29C...ROUGHLY 3000-4000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND
-8 TO -9 AMONG OTHER PARAMETERS. THIS GAVE A LIKELY CHANCE FOR
MICROBURSTS THIS AFTERNOON OFF OF LOCAL MICROBURST CHECKLIST. HAVE
UPGRADED OUR HAZARD GRAPHICS/HWO FOR THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI TO AN ELEVATED RISK. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
CONVECTION/SEVERE RISK WILL BE WITH HAIL UP TO GOLFBALLS AND WIND
GUSTS TO 60MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH ANY STORM
THAT MOVES SLOWLY OR CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA. TO THE
WEST OF I-55...EXPECT THAT MORNING CONVECTION WILL HAVE STABILIZED
THAT AREA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS THE WEST WILL EVENTUALLY DRY OUT
AND WARM UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE EAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WARM UP BEFORE CONVECTION AFFECTS TEMPERATURES THERE. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS THIS MID MORNING WITH A TRANSITION TO
A MVFR/VFR COMBO INTO AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE TIMING TSRA
AND RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT. THE ONE THING WHERE
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE A STEADY PUSH FROM THE
WEST TO GET RAIN/STORMS OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MUCH
OF THE EVENING SHOULD BE QUIET AND WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 07-
09Z...THERE COULD BE SOME VIS/CIG ISSUES WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING. /CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS TO MATCH THE
CURRENT TRENDS OF THE STORM COMPLEX COMING INTO THE W/SW. ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY TO SHOW THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND LACK OF PRECIP POTENTIAL IN THE W LATER.
HOURLY TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED AS WELL TO BETTER MATCH TRENDS. AN UPDATE
TO THE HAZARD GRAPHICS WILL BE FORTH COMING AFTER SOME ANALYSIS AND
LATEST THINKING IS THE MAIN RISK WILL BE FOR THE E HALF BETWEEN THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. 12Z JAN RAOB IS QUITE UNSTABLE AND THE E
COULD SEE SOME NASTY STORMS. LOOK FOR ANOTHER UPDATE WITH MORE
SPECIFICS A BIT LATER IN THE MORNING. /CME/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LATEST VAPOR AND IR
IMAGERY SHOWED THE MAIN UPPER BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS
WITH MEAN UPPER RIDGING NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS...WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS OVER THAT AREA.   A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES WAS ROTATING ACROSS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO PICK UP DEEP GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES. MODEL AND 00Z SNDGS WERE
CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME IMPRESSIVE FLOW INT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
FOR LATE MAY ESP WEST OF THE REGION.

FOR TODAY...HIRES AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWS THAT THE MCS OVER
TEXAS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND MERGE WITH
SOME SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME GOOD CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE FOR THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MODELS SHOWS GOOD LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7C WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR(0-6
KM)OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AS WELL AS 0-3 KM SHEAR OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS TRIES TO OVERDO THE SBCAPES OF 4-5KFT AND
SHOWALTERS INDEX OF -5 TO -6 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S. IT WILL PROBABLY MORE LIKE 2-3KFT AND SHOWALTERS OF -1 TO -3
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHICH IS VERIFIED BY
MODEL SNDGS. SO WITH THIS IN MIND SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA. SO WILL KEEP THE LIMITED RISK
GRAPHIC GOING WITH THE PRIMARY RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND QUARTER
SIZED HAIL FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWS LESS
INSTABILITY AND WEAKER LAPSE RATES FOR MORE OF A DIURNAL MODE FOR
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. THE SFC RIDGE FROM
THE ATLANTIC COAST TO THE CWA WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPS A BIT FOR
THURSDAY. /17/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FRIDAY MORNING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE RIDGING BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW AND HELP MAINTAIN A MOIST AIR MASS OVER OUR
CWA WITH PWATS AROUND AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS AND DEW POINTS
AROUND 70F THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL INITIALLY
EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN GULF NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
FRIDAY BUT THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
OVER OUR REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF DEVELOPING
A PROGRESSIVE CLOSED LOW TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY AND INSTEAD SUGGEST A
WEAK CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER OUR CWA BY MONDAY AND THEN DRIFT THIS
LOW TO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A LITTLE GREATER COVERAGE DURING THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND THE WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL HELP DEVELOP AT LEAST ISOLATED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY. ABOVE NORMAL MORNING LOWS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM BUT AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       86  68  85  68 /  77  32  47  20
MERIDIAN      85  67  85  67 /  81  35  48  20
VICKSBURG     87  69  86  69 /  99  34  47  20
HATTIESBURG   86  69  87  69 /  80  35  53  20
NATCHEZ       87  69  85  70 /  99  36  51  20
GREENVILLE    86  69  85  70 /  99  33  42  20
GREENWOOD     85  69  85  69 /  72  32  46  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

28/CME/22/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
259 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>028-034>037-
040>044-047>050-053>057-059>066-072>074-282000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-
ATTALA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
259 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

MSZ029>033-038-039-045-046-051-052-058-282000-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-NESHOBA-
KEMPER-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLARKE-
259 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...UNTIL 6 PM

FLOODING
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...UNTIL 6 PM

THE RISK FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME
SMALL HAIL REMAIN A THREAT UNTIL 6 PM.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.

CME

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

*FLOODING*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
SIGNIFICANT...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN FLOODING.
LIMITED...FLOODING POSSIBLE.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
258 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MSZ032-037-038-272030-
ATTALA MS-WINSTON MS-CHOCTAW MS-
258 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL WINSTON...
NORTHEASTERN ATTALA AND SOUTHEASTERN CHOCTAW COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM
CDT...

AT 257 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR ZAMA...OR 11 MILES EAST OF KOSCIUSKO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL
WINSTON...NORTHEASTERN ATTALA AND SOUTHEASTERN CHOCTAW COUNTIES...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...WEIR AND MCCOOL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

&&

LAT...LON 3295 8934 3305 8950 3333 8931 3316 8906
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 218DEG 19KT 3305 8938

EEC

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>