Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
345 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
SYNOPSIS....LATEST SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE REGION UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MEAN RIDGING WITH BETTER JET ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. THERE WAS ALSO SOME DECENT UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH AN IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH OF THE
COLD FRONT FROM NW ARKANSAS THROUGH SOUTHEAST OK TO NORTH TEXAS.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWED MID LEVEL FLOW OF AROUND 15-25 KNOTS WITH
SURFACE BASED CAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG. EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR WAS
CONFINED NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. PWATS WERE FROM 1.6 TO 1.8
INCHES,LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C,AND A 350 PLUS 850 MB THETA RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHWEST DELTA. AREA RADARS WERE SHOWING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE REGION.

GOING INTO TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR TONIGHT. HIRES MODELS
SHOWS SOME REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT OUR RAIN CHANCES TO DECREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS WE GO
INTO THURSDAY A DRYER AIRMASS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL
CONFINE OUR RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR BY
THURSDAY EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 50S COULD BE COMMON BY FRIDAY
MORNING OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY MEAN RIDGING WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO PUSH BACK AS
A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL START TO PUSH BACK RAIN CHANCES NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA...WHILE CONFINING IT TO THE FAR WEST DURING THE EVENING.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE SOME WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS WE VENTURE INTO SUNDAY THE MEAN
RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW BETTER RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE.
THIS WILL INCREASE OUR MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES SOME FOR THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE NORTH AROUND THE MEAN
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. THE EURO WAS A LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LOWS STARTING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND REACHING INTO THE LOWER 70S. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...THE SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS OVER EAST MS THIS AFTN WL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST LATE THIS AFTN ENDING THE GREATEST CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THIS
EVENING BUT ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST MVFR-IFR CIGS PSBL TOWARD 09Z THU LASTING
THROUGH MID MORNING. THE FRONT WL DRIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA THU AFTN
WITH VFR CONDS PREVAILING AT MOST SITES BUT ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS WL BE
PSBL ALONG THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR THU AFTN. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  78  60  80 /  33  28  11  12
MERIDIAN      68  80  58  80 /  34  21   8  10
VICKSBURG     68  75  60  79 /  36  31  11  13
HATTIESBURG   71  86  64  84 /  30  42  19  16
NATCHEZ       70  79  62  79 /  39  35  15  24
GREENVILLE    63  72  57  76 /  29  15   7  10
GREENWOOD     62  73  55  76 /  26  11   6  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

17/22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
210 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
211915-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
210 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

NO SHORT TERM HAZARDS EXPECTED.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
511 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MSZ032-033-202245-
OKTIBBEHA MS-CHOCTAW MS-
511 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN OKTIBBEHA AND
NORTHEASTERN CHOCTAW COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 511 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR CHESTER...OR 24 MILES NORTHWEST OF LOUISVILLE...MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CHESTER AROUND 520 PM CDT.
  REFORM AROUND 525 PM CDT.
  LONGVIEW AROUND 545 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE STURGIS.

LAT...LON 3333 8931 3350 8929 3346 8882 3330 8895
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 290DEG 20KT 3343 8926

DB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
602 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MSZ031-033-202330-
OKTIBBEHA MS-LOWNDES MS-
602 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL OKTIBBEHA AND
SOUTHERN LOWNDES COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 602 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR SESSUMS...OR 11 MILES EAST OF STARKVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CRAWFORD AROUND 610 PM CDT.
  BENT OAK AROUND 615 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE ARTESIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

&&

LAT...LON 3340 8829 3329 8835 3329 8860 3336 8875
      3352 8867 3351 8867 3351 8860 3352 8858
      3344 8828
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 294DEG 20KT 3343 8863

BYB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
622 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MSZ031-202345-
LOWNDES MS-
622 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN LOWNDES COUNTY
UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 621 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR BENT OAK...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COLUMBUS...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOWNDES COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3330 8830 3329 8861 3347 8854 3342 8829
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 290DEG 19KT 3336 8850

DB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
623 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MSZ038-039-210015-
NOXUBEE MS-WINSTON MS-
623 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WINSTON AND WESTERN
NOXUBEE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

AT 623 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR BETHEDEN...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF LOUISVILLE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MASHULAVILLE AROUND 645 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3299 8863 3319 8893 3328 8890 3324 8852
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 299DEG 22KT 3321 8886

DB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
628 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

LAZ009-MSZ040-047-210000-
EAST CARROLL LA-WARREN MS-ISSAQUENA MS-
628 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN EAST CARROLL
PARISH...SOUTHERN ISSAQUENA AND NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTIES UNTIL
700 PM CDT...

AT 628 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER TRANSYLVANIA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FITLER AROUND 640 PM CDT.
  VALLEY PARK AND EAGLE BEND AROUND 700 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3279 9116 3272 9096 3266 9096 3266 9077
      3242 9092 3248 9102 3249 9099 3251 9100
      3254 9107 3253 9107 3251 9106 3254 9110
      3255 9109 3255 9107 3256 9108 3256 9111
      3255 9112 3264 9126
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 299DEG 22KT 3268 9114

DB