Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
347 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEMI-ACTIVE WEATHER GOING ON IN THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION HAS REFIRED ALONG OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT AR
STORMS OVER THE MS DELTA REGION. THOUGH VERTICAL TOTALS ONLY IN THE
MID 20S...DCAPES IN THIS AREA REMAIN AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG WITH SOME
0-3KM HELICITY. HAVE SEEN SOME ROTATION IN THOSE ACTIVE STORMS AND
ISSUED A FEW WARNINGS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
THEN WIND DOWN TOWARD MIGNIGHT.

TRANSITIONING MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES UP
THROUGH TUESDAY. WV AND MODEL DATA INDICATING STRONG MID LEVEL
SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS LIFTING RAPIDLY OUT NOW TO THE NE INTO THE
PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL HELP BREAK THE RIDGE
DOWN OVER THE EAST ALLOWING THE RIDGE AXIS TO MIGRATE TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS ADJUSTMENT TO THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PUT THE CWA IN A
WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW.
IT WILL ALSO ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH N MS MONDAY
NIGHT AND HANGING UP OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS TUESDAY.

MODELS INDICATING MORE MCS TYPE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OVER AR/LA AFTER
MIDNIGHT THAT LOOKS TO IMPACT NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. COLD POOL
DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WITH THIS EVENT AS
AMBIENT SHEAR REMAINS WEAK...DCAPES REMAIN LOW AND VERTICAL TOTALS
ONLY AS HIGH AS THE MID 20S. NOT GOING TO RULE OUT A FEW LOCALLY
SEVERE STORMS THOUGH.

ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS DURING PEAK
HEATING AND WEAK SHORTWAVES CONTINUE OVERHEAD...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WHILE SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH MID 20S
VERTICAL TOTALS...DCAPES UP AROUND 1200 J/KG AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SEVERE WIND POSSIBILITIES WITH THE MORE ROBUST
STORMS. WILL NOT OUTLOOK IN THE HWO AT THE MOMENT DUE TO TEMPORAL
AND SPATIAL UNCERTAINTIES./26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BY AFTERNOON. ALSO MAY BE
SOME SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  86  69  86 /  28  67  34  47
MERIDIAN      70  86  68  85 /  21  53  28  50
VICKSBURG     73  85  70  86 /  40  72  46  47
HATTIESBURG   72  88  69  87 /  17  49  26  54
NATCHEZ       73  85  70  85 /  28  67  34  51
GREENVILLE    72  82  68  83 /  59  72  40  37
GREENWOOD     71  83  68  84 /  53  71  42  38

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

26/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
704 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
190015-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
704 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

NO SHORT TERM HAZARDS EXPECTED.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

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