Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1037 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

.UPDATE...
MAIN CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR TODAY ARE TO INCREASE POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
MORNING OBSERVATIONAL DATA DEPICT AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS
ACROSS REGION...PARTICULARLY IN LOWER LEVELS WITH LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS
AND 330-335 850 MB THETA-E VALUES. CONVECTION IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP FROM S MS INTO S LA WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF WEAK
UPPER WAVE FROM TX. ALL SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY AND PROPAGATE
NORTH DUE TO 15-20 KT LOW/MID LEVEL S/SW FLOW. THIS EXPECTED SCENARIO
AND HRRR QPF SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA TODAY AND
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO SHOW LIKELY CATEGORY ALL AREAS. AS DISCUSSED
BY PREVIOUS SHIFT...PRESENCE OF THIS FLOW...INCLUDING 20-30 KT 500 MB
WINDS...ALONG WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG SUGGESTS THAT
SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS IS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER GIVEN EARLY START TO CONVECTION AND WEAK DCAPE VALUES WILL
HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY IN HWO OR GRAPHICS.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...HRRR SEEMS OVERAGGRESSIVE SHOWING
TEMPS REACHING LOWER 90S MOST AREAS CONSIDERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND EXPECTED CONVECTION. STUCK WITH ONGOING GRIDS.    /AEG/

&&

.AVIATION...WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR THE MOST PART THIS
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA WILL EASILY ALLOW CIGS/VSBYS
TO BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL
02Z... DIMINISHING THEREAFTER. MVFR CIGS/VSBY WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z
WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT HBG./26/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND.
TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE OVER THE ARKLAMISS...WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS JUXTAPOSED BY DISTURBED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT A WARM/MOIST (PRECIPITABLE WATER > 1.75 INCHES) AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO FIND SPECIFIC FOCUSING MECHANISMS THAT SUPPORT GOING
WITH HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS...BUT A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE ARKLATEX REGION MAY ENHANCE
ACTIVITY LATER TODAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AND THEN FOR
SATURDAY...SLIGHTLY INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE MAY ALSO RESULT IN GREATER COVERAGE WITH SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINING IN PLACE.

WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FLOW FOR MULTICELL LINE
SEGMENTS WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE STORMS MOVE IN DURING TIME OF PEAK
HEATING AND MAXIMUM INSTABILITY. MOREOVER...THIS FLOW WOULD HELP TO
INCREASE STORM MOTIONS AND OVERALL RAINFALL COVERAGE. /EC/

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AS THE
AREA CONTINUES TO BE SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN MID LEVEL RIDGING TO THE
EAST AND TROUGHING TO THE WEST. SUNDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK
DOWN AS MID LEVEL TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
DRIVES A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT EITHER WAY EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF THE WET PATTERN ON TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BUILD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR IN ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEN BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT MOST DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
HAVE FORGOTTEN ABOUT THE DRY WEATHER AS OF LATE BY THE END OF THE
LONG TERM./15/

AVIATION...SCATTERED AREAS OF IFR STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE HBG AREA...BUT FLOW THUS FAR HAS BEEN
STRONG ENOUGH TO SLOW DOWN FOG DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
WILL POTENTIALLY AFFECT ALL SITES THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVNG IN THE
WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MOST RECENT SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS TO DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       85  69  83  70 /  63  42  56  38
MERIDIAN      86  69  83  69 /  63  41  61  40
VICKSBURG     86  71  84  71 /  59  44  53  33
HATTIESBURG   86  70  83  70 /  70  30  58  40
NATCHEZ       85  70  84  71 /  62  40  52  36
GREENVILLE    87  71  83  71 /  65  49  59  38
GREENWOOD     86  70  82  70 /  64  49  58  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AEG/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
351 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
160900-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
351 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

NO SHORT TERM HAZARDS EXPECTED.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1243 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

MSZ062-063-151815-
LAWRENCE MS-LINCOLN MS-
1243 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN AND
SOUTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM CDT...

AT 1243 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER JAYESS...OR 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF KOKOMO...MOVING NORTH AT 20
MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  JAYESS AROUND 1250 PM CDT.
  RUTH AROUND 1255 PM CDT.
  TOPEKA AROUND 100 PM CDT.
  EAST LINCOLN AROUND 115 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3134 9009 3134 9011 3135 9011 3135 9033
      3155 9039 3158 9008 3135 9009
TIME...MOT...LOC 1743Z 173DEG 17KT 3133 9021

GRG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1258 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

MSZ064-065-151830-
COVINGTON MS-JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-
1258 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL COVINGTON AND
NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CDT...

AT 1258 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER COLLINS...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MOUNT OLIVE AROUND 120 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE SEMINARY.

LAT...LON 3177 8978 3179 8947 3154 8949 3153 8970
TIME...MOT...LOC 1758Z 176DEG 25KT 3162 8960

GRG