Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Jackson, MS

Ashley County, AR, Chicot County, AR, Catahoula Parish, LA, Concordia Parish, LA, East Carroll Parish, LA, Franklin Parish, LA, Madison Parish, LA, Morehouse Parish, LA, Richland Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, West Carroll Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Attala County, MS, Bolivar County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Clarke County, MS, Clay County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Covington County, MS, Forrest County, MS, Franklin County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Humphreys County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Jones County, MS, Kemper County, MS, Lamar County, MS, Lauderdale County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Leake County, MS, Leflore County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Lowndes County, MS, Madison County, MS, Marion County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Neshoba County, MS, Newton County, MS, Noxubee County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Warren County, MS, Washington County, MS, Webster County, MS, Winston County, MS, Yazoo County, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1018 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2015

...WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND...WITH
INCREASING RISK FOR ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...

.UPDATE...MAIN ADJUSTMENTS ARE TO LOWER POPS AND INCLUDE DRIZZLE
TODAY. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPS BASED ON LATEST HRRR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
RAIN IS GRADUALLY TAPIERING OFF FROM THE WEST ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF
AREA AFTER A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EVENT LAST 24
HOURS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN HALF OF AREA PICKING UP 1 TO
3 INCHES OF RAIN. STEADIEST RAIN IS CURRENTLY WORKING EAST ACROSS HWY
82 CORRIDOR EAST OF I-55. REST OF AREA IS SEEING LOTS OF LOW
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE WITH SOME PATCHY -RA AND SHRA. LATEST HRRR RUNS IMPLY
THAT ONCE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN PUSHES EAST THIS DZ/SHRA REGIME WILL
DOMINATE REST OF TODAY...AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND WX ACCORDINGLY.
COULD BE SOME UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND MAYBE A FEW TSRA LATE
TODAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AROUND A BIT AGAIN AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT INCREASES.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AS
STAGNANT COOL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD...GRADUALLY WEAKENING.
EXCEPTION SHOULD BE DOWN IN THE HWY 98 CORRIDOR. LATEST VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SOME PEEKS OF SUN SHOULD OCCUR DOWN THERE...AND
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTING SLOWLY NW USHERING IN WARMER
AIR. HRRR ACTUALLY PUSHES TEMPS INTO THE 70S IN THE HATTIESBURG/
PURVIS AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE I DID NOT TAKE THE GRIDS THAT
WARM...DID USE THE HRRR AS A STARTING POINT TO ADJUST TEMPS UP
SEVERAL DEGS IN THE SE AND TRY TO BEST DEPICT STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT
ACROSS AREA.

WITH REGARD TO SATURDAY SYSTEM...MODELS CONTINUE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT WE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF EJECTING SW CONUS UPPER
SYSTEM. STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY STARTING LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING TO SUPPORT A RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL BE COORDINATING
WITH SPC AND ADJUSTING HAZARD GRAPHICS/HWO THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL
AS EVALUATING HYDRO SITUATION FOR ANY POTENTIAL FLOOD WATCHES. MORE
DETAILS IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
PER LASTEST OBS/SATELLITE TRENDS AND SREF/HRRR GUIDANCE...INCREASING
WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF
FOG/DRIZZLE WITH IFR AND OCCASIONALLY LIFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN SOME CIG BREAK-UP NEAR HBG...BUT EXPECT
LOWER CIGS TO RETURN BY LATE AFTN. AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT THE BULK OF TSRA ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SATURDAY. AWAY FROM TSRA...LOOK FOR PREVAILING CIGS TO LIFT SATURDAY
MORNING TO MVFR CATEGORY AS STRONGER MIXING OCCURS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       55  55  70  47 /  66  56  95  71
MERIDIAN      52  53  70  51 /  68  67  83  90
VICKSBURG     54  55  69  44 /  57  69 100  40
HATTIESBURG   68  61  72  55 /  54  54  72  90
NATCHEZ       58  61  70  46 /  54  68  99  43
GREENVILLE    49  48  64  41 /  65  74 100  27
GREENWOOD     50  49  67  44 / 100  69 100  54

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AEG/EC

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