Flash Flood Warning 91, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
955 AM CST DEC 25 2015

.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS PICKING UP A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WHICH WAS RESULTING IN DEEP SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS
BEING ENHANCED BY A LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE CROSSING THE MIDSOUTH
REGION. THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS BRINGING IN STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS IN THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS AROUND 1.8
INCHES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS IN THE DELTA
THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NOTED ACROSS THE DELTA
REGION WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. AREA SNDGS AND MESOANALYSIS
SHOWED DECENT INSTABILITY, STRONG DEEP SHEAR, AND HELICITY ACROSS
THE REGION. ALSO UPPER DIVERGENCE WAS ENHANCING THE RAINS ACROSS THE
NORTH. AREA RADARS HAD PICKED UP SOME STRONG STORMS IN THE NORTH
ALONG WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING. CELLS WERE ROTATING
PRETTY GOOD. SHORT RANGE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE SHOWS A BUSY
DAY ACROSS THE REGION. WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
NORTH WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THE NORTH FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT. SO WITH THIS IN MIND WILL MAKE NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO TODAYS FORECAST./17/

.AVIATION...FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES. RAIN
WILL BE SCATTERED FOR JAN/HKS THROUGH THE MORNING MAY ADD SOME VCTS
AND TEMPO GROUPS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS GREENVILLE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY.
WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP AT GWO BY NOON. EXPECTING RAIN TO END ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW STRATUS AND SOME FOG WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 3 TO 15Z TOMORROW./7/

./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...457 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...

CHRISTMAS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

ANOTHER STORMY DAY IS ON TAP FOR TODAY AS LARGE SCALE SW ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND STRONG LOW/DEEP LAYER ARE STILL IN THE REGION. WV IMAGERY
INDICATES S/WV THAT WILL BRING OUR CHANCES FOR ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN IS MOVING INTO ERN TX/WRN LA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
TOWARDS THE REGION. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC IS STRENGTHENING AND BUILDING W...HELPING TO
INCREASE H5 HEIGHTS IN OUR AREA. LOW LEVEL SRLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A WARM AND HUMID CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION.

RIGHT NOW SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
WHILE RIGHT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE DELTA EFFICIENT
LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE. ENSEMBLE
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE IS INDICATING ANOMALOUS MOISTURE...PER
THE NAEFS/GEFS...MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN N/NE
MS. WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS WHERE
STORMS CAN TRAIN AND MORE EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES OCCUR. ALSO
EXPANDED THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY AS 30-40KTS 0-3KM
BULK SHEAR AND AGAIN 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THIS WITH EFFICIENT
LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 6.5-7.0 DEG C/KM WILL PROMOTE STRONG
UPDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. A LOT OF THE HI-
RES ARW/NMM/ARW INDICATE THERE COULD BE SOME OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE
N TO GRADUALLY MOVE E AND SOME ORGANIZED BOWS TO DEVELOP. THUS THIS
AREA COULD SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH SOME
SOME THREAT EXTENDING FURTHER S. ANOTHER THING TO NOTE IS WITH NEAR
RECORD LOW LEVEL TEMPS...EXPECT ANOTHER NEAR OR ABOVE RECORD HIGHS
TODAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING SOMEWHAT WITH LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPS...WHICH SEEMED TO BE THE CASE YESTERDAY WHERE WARM AND
HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER OUTWEIGHED ANY HEIGHT RISES THAT WERE
OCCURRING...WHICH LED TO SEVERE STORMS AND SOME WERE VERY EFFICIENT
HAIL PRODUCERS. WITH CLOCKWISE CURVING HODOGRAPHS AND MID/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IN PLACE...COULD NOT RULE OUT A TORNADO BUT SEEING SURGES IN
HI-RES GUIDANCE AND FLOW SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO BOUNDARY...EXPECT
WINDS/HAIL AND FLASH FLOODING TO BE MORE LIKELY. FLASH FLOODING COULD
DEFINITELY BE A CONCERN TODAY IN AS HI-RES NSSL WRF INDICATES SOME
PRETTY HIGH TOTALS IN N/NE MS AS MOISTURE FEEDS IN FROM THE S.

EXPECT ANOTHER HUMID NIGHT TONIGHT AS LOWS WILL NOT BE MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN THIS MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY LESSEN TONIGHT
BUT WITH MOISTURE STILL LINGERING AROUND...COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HEIGHTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
STABLE TO POSSIBLY RISING SOME AND LOW/MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE
WARMING INTO TOMORROW SO EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND POSSIBLY RECORD DAY
IN STORE AGAIN SATURDAY. LUCKILY STORM CHANCES WILL BE LESSENING AS
WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL LESSEN LAPSE RATES AND OVERALL
INSTABILITY. STILL AGAIN COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME STORMS MAYBE STRONG
BUT EXPECT ANY COVERAGE TO NOT BE NEARLY AS MUCH AS ON FRIDAY.

STRONG 597DM H5 UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN
AND BUILD BACK NW AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS
GRADUALLY BECOMES CUT OFF AS A STRONG UPPER JET CUTS OFF THE FLOW TO
THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW TO THE S. THIS WILL HELP DEVELOP A CUTOFF
LOW OVER THE FAR SRN PLAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ISENTROPIC LIFT BACK AGAIN AND BEGIN SOME HEIGHT
FALLS IN THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP DEVELOP A LOW IN
SRN/CENTRAL TX AND STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR W WITH EXTREMELY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES DUE TO ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AND FLOODING
ISSUES LIKELY IN THE OZARKS. OUR AREA WILL GRADUALLY BRING IN MORE
RAIN CHANCES IN THE WEST. WITH LESS LAPSE RATES...EXPECT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR NW WITH SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. /DC/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SUNDAY
MORNING A LARGE CLOSED LOW WILL BE NEAR THE TEXAS BIG BEND REGION
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. OUR CWA
WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BUT
PWATS WL POOL AROUND 1.80IN WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
FAIRLY FORMIDABLE CAP OVER OUR CWA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD  LIMIT CONVECTION AND HELP TEMPERATURES WARM WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AGAIN. MOST SITES SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE OVER OUR WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES
EAST OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER OUR WESTERN MOST ZONES BUT THE MAIN TIMING FOR SEVERE
STORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE
CLOSED LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST TO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY MONDAY MORNING THEN CONTINUE
NORTHEAST TO THE MIS MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ENCOUNTER AN ENVIRONMENT
WITH MLCAPES AT LEAST 500-1000J/KG...0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 45-50KTS
AND 0-3KM SREH AROUND 300M2/S2. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH A FEW TORNADOES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE AS WELL. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL END A LITTLE FASTER MONDAY THAN THE THINKING LAST
NIGHT. DRY SLOTTING SHOULD END MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN BY NOON
MONDAY BUT LIGHT PCPN WL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL THE CLOSED LOW MOVES
A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH MONDAY EVENING. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO BE BACK OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL
BE BACK IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS TUESDAY MOSTLY IN THE 50S. TUESDAY
WILL BE DRY AS THE CLOSED LOW SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER NORTHEAST OF OUR
CWA BUT OUR WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A SECOND
CLOSED LOW SWINGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT AND OPEN THE LOW AND SWINGS A TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
LIMITED WITH THIS TROUGH BUT BOTH MODELS GENERATE LIGHT QPF ACROSS
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE COOL AND
DRY ACROSS OUR REGION. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       80  70  80  69 /  53  43  22  23
MERIDIAN      79  69  78  68 /  37  35  23  26
VICKSBURG     80  69  81  69 /  60  45  23  23
HATTIESBURG   81  69  79  68 /  32  25  24  28
NATCHEZ       80  70  81  71 /  51  40  21  23
GREENVILLE    77  66  79  67 /  82  57  32  36
GREENWOOD     79  69  80  70 /  81  60  28  22

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

17/DC/22/7

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1043 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025>039-261645-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
1043 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND
NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLOODING
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE, WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE
STORM WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION, HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT
IN FLASH FLOODING. LOOKING FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY 4 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND A FEW
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREA.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION THE REST
OF TODAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040>057-059>064-261645-
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
1043 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLOODING
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE, WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE
STORM WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND A FEW
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREA.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION THE REST
OF TODAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

MSZ058-065-261645-
CLARKE-COVINGTON-
1043 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLOODING
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

MSZ066-072>074-261645-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
1043 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

*FLOODING*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
SIGNIFICANT...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN FLOODING.
LIMITED...FLOODING POSSIBLE.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1027 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

LAZ024-026-251715-
CATAHOULA LA-CONCORDIA LA-
1027 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CONCORDIA AND CENTRAL CATAHOULA
PARISHES UNTIL 1115 AM CST...

AT 1027 AM CST...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER MAYNA...OR NEAR LARTO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MONTEREY AROUND 1035 AM CST.
  WILDSVILLE AROUND 1040 AM CST.
  FROGMORE AROUND 1045 AM CST.
  FERRIDAY AND WEST FERRIDAY AROUND 1055 AM CST.
  VIDALIA...CLAYTON AND LEE BAYOU AROUND 1100 AM CST.
  SPOKANE AROUND 1105 AM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE SICILY ISLAND AND
RIDGECREST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3197 9160 3186 9157 3180 9158 3176 9156
      3175 9138 3171 9140 3162 9140 3161 9144
      3165 9150 3163 9152 3161 9152 3159 9149
      3159 9140 3155 9144 3153 9152 3144 9151
      3131 9184 3145 9197
TIME...MOT...LOC 1627Z 231DEG 40KT 3143 9184

BYB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1212 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

MSZ037-251900-
ATTALA MS-
1212 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN ATTALA COUNTY UNTIL 100
PM CST...

AT 1212 PM CST...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR NEWPORT...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KOSCIUSKO...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  KOSCIUSKO AROUND 1230 PM CST.
  SMYRNA AROUND 1235 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE ETHEL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3293 8944 3293 8973 3303 8973 3323 8946
      3305 8932 3298 8932
TIME...MOT...LOC 1812Z 236DEG 26KT 3295 8968

BYB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1217 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

MSZ030-251900-
CLAY MS-
1217 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN CLAY COUNTY UNTIL 100 PM
CST...

AT 1216 PM CST...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR MONTPELIER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GRIFFITH AROUND 1220 PM CST.
  PALA ALTO AROUND 1230 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3368 8872 3368 8868 3357 8891 3372 8903
      3375 8898 3376 8893 3379 8893 3381 8889
      3381 8872
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 236DEG 26KT 3369 8890

BYB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1249 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

MSZ055-056-251930-
SIMPSON MS-SMITH MS-
1249 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN SIMPSON AND SMITH
COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CST...

AT 1249 PM CST...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
JUST SOUTH OF MAGEE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RALEIGH AND CENTER RIDGE AROUND 115 PM CST.
  PINEVILLE AROUND 130 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE MIZE AND SYLVARENA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3186 8985 3222 8941 3222 8932 3196 8932
      3178 8962 3177 8977
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 230DEG 33KT 3184 8972

BYB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
105 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

MSZ037-251930-
ATTALA MS-
105 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ATTALA COUNTY UNTIL
130 PM CST...

AT 104 PM CST...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR SMYRNA...OR NEAR KOSCIUSKO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ZAMA AROUND 115 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE ETHEL AND MCCOOL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3298 8932 3293 8942 3293 8960 3302 8967
      3326 8932
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 235DEG 31KT 3300 8954

BYB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
152 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

MSZ048-049-252015-
HINDS MS-RANKIN MS-
152 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN RANKIN AND
SOUTHEASTERN HINDS COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CST...

AT 152 PM CST...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR TERRY...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF CRYSTAL SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TERRY AROUND 200 PM CST.
  JACKSON AROUND 205 PM CST.
  BYRAM AND WHITES AROUND 210 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3213 9046 3227 9032 3210 9010 3205 9022
      3205 9044
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 236DEG 26KT 3210 9037

CME