Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
223 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015

RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BY LATER THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS ALSO
MUCH LOWER...THOUGH SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CANT BE RULED
OUT IN STRONGER STORMS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING UPPER TROF AXIS MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE HAS ALLOWED FOR AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WITH CAPES
2500-3000J/KG OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND EASTERN IOWA. SCT SH/TSRA
WILL DEVELOP IN THIS UNSTABLE AIR AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT IN A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
LACKING IN LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECT CONVECTION TO STRUGGLE IN
BOTH STRENGTH AND AREAL COVERAGE...WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE FROM PULSE-TYPE STORMS. TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND COMBINED WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING WILL BRING A QUICK END TO PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. SEASONABLE
TEMPS AND LESS HUMID AS WELL WITH U50S FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND U70S
TO AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

TUE NIGHT WILL CONT DRY UNTIL A 5H SHORTWAVE TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE
NRN GTLKS REGION. AN ATTENDANT SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP ACROSS
THE GTLKS AND LAY OUT ACROSS THE ERN GTLKS SWWD THROUGH NRN IN INTO
CENTRAL IL. WITH DEEP MOIST IN PLACE...EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO RETURN BY
WED AFTN AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
MARGINAL SEVERE. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING
N-S THROUGH FRI...EXPECT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTN TSRA. UPPER RIDGING TEMPORARILY SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE GTLKS SAT BRINGING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM PRECIPITATION.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SUPPRESSING THE UPPER RIDGING BY SUN. THIS WILL BRING A SFC FRONT
TOWARD THE FCST AREA LATER SUN INTO SUN NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
DIFFUSE ON MON. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS SUN INTO MON. TEMPS WILL RUN
ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL SAT WHEN THE SFC FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. A
RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS EXPECTED SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

KIWX RADAR INDICATING LINE OF SHOWERS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS
NOW EXITED THE AREA AND VIS SAT SHOWING CLEARING SKIES RAPIDLY
EXPANDING FROM THE NW INTO THE AREA. AIRMASS IS DESTABILIZING TO THE
WEST WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT IN A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT LACKING IN
LARGE SCALE FORCING LEAVES QUESTIONS AS TO EXTEND OF COVERAGE...WILL
KEEP MENTION LIMITED TO VICINITY FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
UPPER TROUGH AXIS THEN SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND WILL LEAD TO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...FRAZIER
AVIATION...JAL

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1121 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-091530-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
1121 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015 /1021 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...A FEW STORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-091530-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
1121 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...A FEW STORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
750 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             UNION MILLS             41.49N 86.78W
06/08/2015  E1.00 INCH       LA PORTE           IN   PUBLIC

&&

MCD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
752 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

INZ013-015-020-090030-
FULTON IN-PULASKI IN-WHITE IN-
652 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD NORTHERN WHITE...EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN CASS...PULASKI AND SOUTHWESTERN FULTON COUNTIES...

AT 650 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
WINAMAC TO FRANCESVILLE TO 12 MILES WEST OF MONON...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  WINAMAC...
  MONON...
  RIPLEY...
  LEE...
  VANMETER PARK...PULASKI AND LAKESIDE...
  LAKE BRUCE...HEADLEE AND BUFFALO...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 4091 8698 4092 8694 4102 8694 4116 8678
      4110 8640 4091 8648 4091 8650 4091 8658
      4088 8659 4079 8685 4084 8700
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 289DEG 20KT 4110 8673 4099 8683
          4091 8709

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
757 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     HAIL             NEW BUFFALO             41.79N 86.75W
06/08/2015  E0.25 INCH       BERRIEN            MI   PUBLIC

            GUSTY WINDY WITH HEAVY RAIN. LARGEST HAIL
            WAS 0.25 INCHES.

0428 PM     HAIL             COLDWATER               41.94N 85.00W
06/08/2015  E0.50 INCH       BRANCH             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            0.25 TO 0.5 INCH HAIL.

0430 PM     HAIL             2 W TOTO                41.26N 86.74W
06/08/2015  E0.50 INCH       STARKE             IN   NWS EMPLOYEE

            0.25 TO 0.50 INCH HAIL REPORTED WITH STORM.

0440 PM     HAIL             1 E WHITE PIGEON        41.80N 85.62W
06/08/2015  E0.25 INCH       ST. JOSEPH         MI   PUBLIC

0455 PM     HAIL             2 E NEW CARLISLE        41.70N 86.48W
06/08/2015  M1.00 INCH       ST. JOSEPH         IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

0455 PM     HAIL             2 N EDWARDSBURG         41.83N 86.08W
06/08/2015  E0.50 INCH       CASS               MI   PUBLIC

            0.25 TO 0.50 INCH HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

0456 PM     HAIL             2 NE THREE RIVERS       41.96N 85.60W
06/08/2015  M0.25 INCH       ST. JOSEPH         MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZED HAIL WITH HEAVY RAIN.

0505 PM     HAIL             3 WSW WATERFORD         41.66N 86.89W
06/08/2015  E0.25 INCH       LA PORTE           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0505 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ESE BEAR LAKE         41.85N 84.64W
06/08/2015                   HILLSDALE          MI   911 CALL CENTER

            TWO 20" DIAMETER TREES DOWNED IN CAMBRIA
            TOWNSHIP. NO COMMENTS ON HEALTH OF TREE.

0505 PM     HAIL             2 SSW MICHIGAN CITY     41.69N 86.89W
06/08/2015  E0.25 INCH       LA PORTE           IN   PUBLIC

            PEA-DIME SIZED HAIL ON FRANKLIN STREET

0505 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 E HILLSDALE           41.93N 84.58W
06/08/2015  M65 MPH          HILLSDALE          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0508 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S NORTH ADAMS         41.93N 84.52W
06/08/2015                   HILLSDALE          MI   911 CALL CENTER

            THREE 13 INCH DIAMETER LIMBS DOWNED IN ADAMS
            TOWNSHIP (ESTIMATED DIAMETER).

0509 PM     HAIL             3 SW MENDON             41.98N 85.50W
06/08/2015  E0.25 INCH       ST. JOSEPH         MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VERY LITTLE WIND WITH THE STORM.

0520 PM     HAIL             2 SW BYRON              41.64N 86.65W
06/08/2015  M0.75 INCH       LA PORTE           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0522 PM     HAIL             NORTH LIBERTY           41.53N 86.43W
06/08/2015  E0.25 INCH       ST. JOSEPH         IN   PUBLIC

            WIND GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 MPH ALSO OBSERVED
            WITHIN THE STORM.

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GRANGER                 41.74N 86.14W
06/08/2015                   ST. JOSEPH         IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1 FT DIAMETER TREE DOWN. LOOKS PARTIALLY
            ROTTED FROM PICTURES, HARD TO TELL. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

0531 PM     HAIL             ELKHART                 41.69N 85.97W
06/08/2015  E0.75 INCH       ELKHART            IN   911 CALL CENTER

0534 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ESE SPRINGVILLE       41.68N 86.71W
06/08/2015  M0.46 INCH       LA PORTE           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN WITH PEA SIZED HAIL AS WELL. RAIN
            TOTAL FROM 5:05 PM EDT TO 5:34 PM EDT.

0535 PM     HAIL             WESTVILLE               41.54N 86.91W
06/08/2015  E1.00 INCH       LA PORTE           IN   PUBLIC

0535 PM     HAIL             ELKHART                 41.69N 85.97W
06/08/2015  E0.75 INCH       ELKHART            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO DIME/PENNY SIZED HAIL. HEAVY RAIN
            WITH WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED AT 35 MPH.

0545 PM     HAIL             3 E WANATAH             41.43N 86.84W
06/08/2015  E0.70 INCH       LA PORTE           IN   PUBLIC

0550 PM     HAIL             UNION MILLS             41.49N 86.78W
06/08/2015  E1.00 INCH       LA PORTE           IN   PUBLIC

0605 PM     HAIL             LAKEVILLE               41.52N 86.27W
06/08/2015  E1.00 INCH       ST. JOSEPH         IN   PUBLIC

0605 PM     HAIL             LA PAZ                  41.46N 86.31W
06/08/2015  E0.75 INCH       MARSHALL           IN   PUBLIC

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BREMEN                  41.44N 86.15W
06/08/2015                   MARSHALL           IN   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORTS OF TREE DOWN ON A POWER LINE ON THE
            300 BLOCK OF SOUTH WITLOCK.

0620 PM     HAIL             1 SE SAN PIERRE         41.19N 86.88W
06/08/2015  M1.50 INCH       STARKE             IN   PUBLIC

0630 PM     HAIL             2 SW NORTH JUDSON       41.20N 86.80W
06/08/2015  E0.88 INCH       STARKE             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0740 PM     HAIL             LOGANSPORT              40.75N 86.36W
06/08/2015  E0.88 INCH       CASS               IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
IRIS SYSTEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
757 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

INZ018-023>027-032-033-OHZ015-024-090030-
ADAMS IN-ALLEN IN-BLACKFORD IN-GRANT IN-HUNTINGTON IN-MIAMI
IN-PAULDING OH-VAN WERT OH-WABASH IN-WELLS IN-
757 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD PAULDING...NORTHWESTERN VAN
WERT...NORTHWESTERN BLACKFORD...GRANT...WELLS...NORTHERN ADAMS...
SOUTHERN MIAMI...HUNTINGTON...SOUTHERN WABASH AND SOUTHEASTERN ALLEN
COUNTIES...

AT 755 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ANTWERP TO
HUNTINGTON TO 14 MILES WEST OF SWAYZEE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  OSSIAN...
  MARION...
  BLUFFTON AND DECATUR...
  MARKLE...
  SWEETSER...
  PAULDING...PAYNE AND SWAYZEE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 469 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 28.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 69 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 259 AND
302.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 4058 8587 4058 8616 4087 8554 4127 8485
      4115 8434 4111 8434 4071 8507 4039 8569
      4040 8587
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 294DEG 23KT 4120 8478 4083 8543
          4053 8608

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