Small Craft Advisory 19, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
311 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 413 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY EVENING. SEVERE
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER EAST AND NORTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S
EAST TO LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S WEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AS IT BECOMES COOLER AND LESS HUMID BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015

ONGOING SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD. KIWX/KIND RADARS SHOWING BROKEN
LINE OF DISCREET STORMS CROSSING THE IN/OH BORDER ATTM WITH ADDL
CONVECTION FIRING IN CENTRAL IN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST
RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTING POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE MID MS
VALLEY MOVING OUT OF THE BASE OF UPPER TROF AND INDUCING STRONG
RESPONSE AHEAD WITH 65KT SPEED MAX WHICH IS AIDING IN THE CURRENT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND SHOULD ALSO HELP WITH EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND BRING AN END TO PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST BY
MIDNIGHT. UPPER LOW WILL SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION ALLOWING MOISTURE TO WRAP IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM AND RESULT IN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
ACCOMPANY THERMAL TROF AND MIX DOWN 25-30KT GUSTS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND MAY EVEN INITIATE A SHOWER OR TWO BUT WILL LEAVE
FCST DRY ATTM. SHARPLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL HAVE TEMPS AVERAGING
AROUND 10F BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015

STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY TUE
NGT-WED NGT PROVIDING COOL/DRY WX. LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
TUE NIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. LEANED TOWARD WARMER MAV
MOS MINS IN L40S... MET MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO COOL GIVEN CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVE. MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED WED AS
COMPARED TO TUE... BUT THERMAL TROF STILL OVER THE AREA AND LAKE
BREEZES PUSHING WELL INLAND WITH WK NORTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD
KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN THE U50S/L60S. WAA WILL DVLP BY THU AS SFC HIGH
MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE CWA ALLOWING TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE
M-U60S. A SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE FROM THE SWRN U.S. WED TO
THE UPR MS VALLEY THU NGT. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ACCOMPANYING
WK SFC LOW EXPECTED TO LIFT NE INTO OUR AREA THU NGT CAUSING SCT
SHOWERS WITH TSTMS PSBL WRN PORTION OF CWA WHERE WK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FCST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER OUR AREA
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER DEEP UPR LOW MOVES INTO THE WRN CONUS. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW BY
SUN-MON... BUT IN EITHER CASE SWLY FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO SPREAD
FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS/MOISTURE
WITH SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY AND PRBLY WK SHRTWVS LIFTING NE ACROSS
THE AREA SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2015

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH IL THIS MORNING. THIS AREA
WILL SLIDE EAST THIS MORNING WITH RAIN MOVING INTO KSBN AROUND
15Z. RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WHILE MAIN SHORT WAVE
OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS MORNING RACES INTO INDIANA BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
KFWA PROVIDED ATMOSPHERE CAN SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE. POTENTIAL WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS POSSIBLE IF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP. PARTIAL
CLEARING EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...LASHLEY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
748 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2015

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-121200-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
748 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2015 /648 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCES EAST OF A
LOGANSPORT TO GOSHEN TO THREE RIVERS MICHIGAN LINE. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING APPEAR TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-121200-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
748 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT ON
TUESDAY DUE TO HIGH WINDS AND WAVES.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
217 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0207 PM     HAIL             1 SE MARK CENTER        41.28N  84.62W
05/11/2015  E1.00 INCH       DEFIANCE           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

AGD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
227 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0223 PM     HAIL             PLEASANT MILLS          40.78N  84.84W
05/11/2015  M0.75 INCH       ADAMS              IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN PLEASANT MILLS

&&

BENTLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
239 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EVANSPORT               41.43N  84.40W
05/11/2015                   DEFIANCE           OH   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN NEAR EVANSPORT.

&&

BENTLEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
257 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015

INZ018-026-027-OHZ015-111930-
ADAMS IN-ALLEN IN-PAULDING OH-WELLS IN-
257 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN PAULDING...
NORTHEASTERN WELLS...NORTHWESTERN ADAMS AND SOUTHEASTERN ALLEN
COUNTIES...

AT 255 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BLUFFTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  NEW HAVEN AND MONROEVILLE...
  WOODBURN...
  MAGLEY...PREBLE AND PETERSON...
  HOAGLAND...WILLIAMS AND MIDDLETOWN...
  MAPLES...
  ZULU AND TILLMAN...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 469 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 6 AND 22.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT MONDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO.

LAT...LON 4077 8532 4120 8491 4103 8471 4099 8476
      4099 8481 4095 8481 4066 8514
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 219DEG 49KT 4079 8515

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