Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Northern Indiana

659 
WWUS53 KIWX 121649
SVSIWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1249 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

INC179-121658-
/O.CAN.KIWX.SV.W.0047.000000T0000Z-150612T1715Z/
WELLS IN-
1249 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN WELLS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF 
THE COUNTY. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4090 8507 4092 8500 4092 8481 4096 8480
      4099 8463 4073 8457 4073 8480 4071 8480
      4069 8507
TIME...MOT...LOC 1648Z 267DEG 40KT 4078 8492 

$$

INC001-OHC161-121715-
/O.CON.KIWX.SV.W.0047.000000T0000Z-150612T1715Z/
ADAMS IN-VAN WERT OH-
1249 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM EDT
FOR ADAMS AND WESTERN VAN WERT COUNTIES...

AT 1248 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER MONROE...OR
NEAR DECATUR...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VAN WERT...DECATUR...CONVOY...MONROE...OHIO CITY...SALEM...
MIDDLEBURY...PREBLE...WILLSHIRE...WREN...PETERSON...MONMOUTH...
SCHUMM...DULL...GLENMORE...ABANAKA...MAGLEY...RIVARE...WILLIAMS AND
PLEASANT MILLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4090 8507 4092 8500 4092 8481 4096 8480
      4099 8463 4073 8457 4073 8480 4071 8480
      4069 8507
TIME...MOT...LOC 1648Z 267DEG 40KT 4078 8492 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

NWS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1129 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EXPAND
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
THE MAIN CONCERNS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WAS MOVG ACROSS OUR CWA LATE THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF SFC CDFNT WHICH EXTENDED FROM SW MI-SE IA. THIS
PRECIP SHOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NWRN PORTION OF CWA
AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. MAIN THREAT FOR SVR STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
TO BE ACROSS THE SE 1/2 THIS AFTN. MINOR CHANGES MADE TO WX GRIDS
AND TEMPS TO REFLECT THESE ONGOING TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

WITHERING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FGEN/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO STRUGGLE OUTSIDE OF OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING
GIVEN BETTER FORCING AND LLJ/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/MUCAPE ARE STILL
DISPLACED JUST TO OUR WEST. THAT WILL CHANGE BY LATER TODAY AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND PARENT SHORTWAVE MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. ADEQUATE SYNOPTIC FORCING IN A VERY MOIST AND AT
LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO MOST AREAS
SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT SOME POINT TODAY. QUESTION
REMAINS EXACT TIMING/EVOLUTION AND SEVERE CHANCES.

HI-RES MODELS ARE SPLIT ON HOW ROBUST THIS PREFRONTAL CONVECTION
WILL BE. HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST LITTLE MORE THAN SCT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH MAIN ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WRF-NMM INDICATES INITIAL LINE WILL BE MUCH MORE
ACTIVE...CAPITALIZING ON SOME DIURNAL RECOVERY BY 15Z IN OUR
SOUTHEAST HALF. TRUTH IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. EXPECT SCT
CONVECTION TO STEADILY CHURN E/SE THROUGH MIDDAY BUT BEST CHANCES
FOR STRONGER/MORE ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS ALWAYS...EARLY DAY PRECIP
MAKES SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES NEBULOUS. EXCELLENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL MAKE CLOUD COVER/SOLAR HEATING LESS CONSEQUENTIAL
WITH LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS STILL GENERATING 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
BUT PREFRONTAL CONVECTION COULD STILL THROW A LARGE MONKEY WRENCH
INTO THE WORKS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 30 KTS (HIGHEST IN OUR
NORTHERN CWA) SO ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE. WIND PROFILE IS
FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SO STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND BOWING SEGMENTS ARE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN...THOUGH SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY MANAGES TO BUILD. ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY THERE IS
DEFINITELY A CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE NAILING DOWN MORE SPECIFICS. ALSO A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT GIVEN PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND STORM MOTION NEARLY
PARALLEL TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOCALIZED FLOODING CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
BUT CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD THREAT IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR WATCH
ISSUANCE. WILL JUST CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN
HWO AND GRIDS.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE/SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY LATE EVENING AND
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BUT ANY PEAKS OF SUN WILL MAKE UPPER 80S
EASILY ATTAINABLE. POSTFRONTAL OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE THAN PRESENT VALUES...UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO LONG TERM PERIOD AS OSCILLATING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS REMAIN IN RATHER
GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY FOR THIS PATTERN BUT A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

BOUNDARY WILL BE SINKING SOUTH ON SATURDAY BUT REMAINING CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SOUTH FOR LOW CHANCE POPS AS EXACT LOCATION YET TO BE
DETERMINED. RESIDUAL CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF
FRONT. BOUNDARY BEGINS TO COME BACK NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
FLUX AND INSTABILITY PRESENT SO WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR PERIODIC SHRA
AND TSRA THROUGH MONDAY. FRONT LOOKS TO SAG SOUTH OF AREA ONCE AGAIN
TOWARD TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
TRIES TO DRY US OUT FOR A DAY. WILL STILL CARRY A LOW POP WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION. LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
COME BACK NORTH TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
POSSIBLE THROUGH END OF PERIOD. EPISODIC ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER
REMAIN POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON TIMING OF FRONT AND STRONGER
KINEMATICS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH
PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD
TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE EXPECTED GIVEN DECENT FORCING AND VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT
BUT EXACT TIMING REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN. CURRENTLY EXPECT BEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDER DURING THE MIDAFTERNOON BUT COULD BE EARLIER
AT KSBN. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT POSTFRONTAL CAA AND
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME STRATUS. IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KSBN WHILE CONFIDENCE AT KFWA IS LOWER.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...AGD

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
423 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-130830-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
423 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE
DAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-130830-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
423 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO
50 KNOTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1215 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

INZ025-026-121645-
HUNTINGTON-WELLS-
1215 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WELLS AND SOUTHEASTERN
HUNTINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 1214 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MARKLE...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HUNTINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLUFFTON...MARKLE...WARREN...LANCASTER...UNIONDALE...PONETO...VERA
CRUZ...TRAVISVILLE...MURRAY...PLUM TREE...NORTH OAKS...LIBERTY
CENTER...ROCKFORD...DILLMAN...REIFFSBURG...DOMESTIC...MAJENICA...
PETROLEUM...WELLSBURG AND CRAIGVILLE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 69 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 272 AND
287.

LAT...LON 4064 8545 4065 8545 4065 8554 4084 8551
      4085 8507 4058 8508
TIME...MOT...LOC 1614Z 277DEG 34KT 4075 8543

NWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1226 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

INZ027-OHZ016-024-025-121700-
ADAMS-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN-
1226 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ADAMS...VAN WERT...
SOUTHWESTERN PUTNAM AND SOUTHWESTERN ALLEN COUNTIES...

AT 1225 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR CONVOY...OR 8 MILES
EAST OF DECATUR...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VAN WERT...DELPHOS...SPENCERVILLE...CONVOY...OTTOVILLE...OHIO CITY...
SPENCERVILLE IN ALLEN COUNTY...MIDDLEBURY...MIDDLE POINT...FORT
JENNINGS...WILLSHIRE...WREN...VENEDOCIA...ELGIN...MONTICELLO...
CONANT...DULL...SOUTHWORTH...JONESTOWN AND SCHUMM.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4069 8428 4068 8446 4073 8446 4073 8480
      4072 8480 4072 8483 4092 8485 4100 8427
TIME...MOT...LOC 1625Z 252DEG 29KT 4084 8476

NG