Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1113 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED INTO TOMORROW WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 80S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 90 NEAR THE
OHIO RIVER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

CONTINUED TRENDS OF PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MINOR BLENDING OF NEW
MODELS. RESULTED IN SLIGHT BUMP UP FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS WE CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG RIDGE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING...HOWEVER WITH THE CURRENT
STAGNANT FLOW PATTERN AND NO APPARENT KICKER TO MOVE THE WEAK
CIRCULATION CENTER OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES FEEL THAT IT WOULD BE BEST
TO KEEP ISOLATED THUNDER. SIMILAR TO THE CONVECTION FROM YESTERDAY
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY.

ADDITIONALLY...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH WILL HELP
TO DRIVE TEMPERATURES UP ONCE AGAIN. SEVERAL OF THE SREF MEMBERS
HAVE SHOWN TEMPERATURES IN MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA...HAVE NOT GONE THAT HOG WILD...BUT DID BUMP
TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS TODAY.

WHILE HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS ARE HIGH...IT IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUSH
HEAT INDICES TO ADVISORY LEVELS. FEEL THAT WITH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
THIS WILL BEST BE ADDRESSED USING OUR SOCIAL MEDIA AND WEATHER STORY
GRAPHICS.

 &&

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND GIVEN PERSISTENT LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F
GIVEN 850MB TEMPS HOVERING NEAR 18C. SATURDAY MAY BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN SUN/MON GIVEN LINGERING EFFECTS OF WEAK UPPER LOW BUT
DIFFERENCES LIKELY NEGLIGIBLE. SUNDAY CURRENTLY APPEARS TO HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR LOWER 90S GIVEN NEARLY FULL SUN/DEEP PBL MIXING AND
INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. THAT BEING SAID...
MONDAY COULD BE EQUALLY AS WARM (ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST HALF) IF
DECAYING FRONT IS AS SLOW AND WEAK AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS STILL EXPECTED TO HOVER AROUND 70F DURING THIS TIME...
YIELDING HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S.

WEAK PV ANOMALY WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY BUT WILL BE MUCH MORE DIFFUSE WITH A MORE
QUESTIONABLE IMPACT ON PRECIP CHANCES AND COVERAGE. SUSPECT THERE
WILL BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION GIVEN RELATIVELY MOIST SURFACE
PARCELS AND LINGERING WEAK FORCING BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
MODEST CAP AND OVERALL POOR INSTABILITY GIVEN WARM TEMPS ALOFT. WILL
MAINTAIN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY WITH STRONGER CAP/EVEN LESS INSTABILITY AND NO FORCING FOR
ASCENT AS UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION FINALLY WINDS DOWN/EXITS.

WESTERN CONUS TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST BY MONDAY BUT REMAINS WELL TO
OUR NORTHWEST. MODELS SUGGEST WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO PUSH
THROUGH OUR REGION LATE MONDAY BUT PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR TENUOUS AT
BEST GIVEN LONGWAVE PATTERN. ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHWEST BUT MAINTAINED JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY BUT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE WEDNESDAY AS SECONDARY TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH
OUR AREA AND FINALLY FORCES A MEANINGFUL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TUES/WED BUT REAL AIRMASS CHANGE COMES AT THE END OF
THE WEEK WHEN HIGHS DROP TO AROUND 70F WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS
MICHIGAN...NORTHWEST OHIO AND FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA HAS ALLOWED
FOG TO FORM WITH THE DENSEST COVERAGE NORTH OF A KOXI-KDUH LINE.
PATCHY FOG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE. EXPECT IFR CIGS AT KSBN
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THIS WILL MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE. WITH
THE PROXIMITY OF THE REMNANT SHORTWAVE/CONVECTION OVER LAKE
ERIE...ISOLD -TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO TRIGGER AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED.
GUSTY WINDS ARE THE GREATEST RISK/THREAT. OTHERWISE - WINDS
CONTINUE LIGHT AND AND VARY ONLY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...LEWIS

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
450 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-050900-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
450 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND MONDAY.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-050900-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
450 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND MONDAY.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
339 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             KEWANNA                 41.02N 86.41W
09/04/2015  E0.88 INCH       FULTON             IN   PUBLIC

&&

MCD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
342 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

INZ015-022>024-042015-
CASS-WABASH-FULTON-MIAMI-
342 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CASS...SOUTHEASTERN
FULTON...MIAMI AND NORTHWESTERN WABASH COUNTIES...

AT 341 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR AKRON TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF MEXICO TO 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LOGANSPORT...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE
STORMS...AND MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...GRISSOM AFB...
AKRON...WALTON...BUNKER HILL...MEXICO...LINCOLN...WELLS...FLORA...
GALVESTON...MIAMI...ERIE...DENVER...ROANN...FULTON...MACY AND ONWARD.

&&

LAT...LON 4056 8637 4069 8637 4069 8652 4074 8652
      4074 8658 4104 8616 4105 8568 4100 8568
      4100 8565 4056 8598
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 267DEG 41KT 4101 8608 4089 8624 4070 8648

SLL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
412 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

INZ017-018-022>025-042115-
HUNTINGTON-ALLEN-CASS-WHITLEY-WABASH-MIAMI-
412 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CASS...NORTHERN
HUNTINGTON...SOUTHERN WHITLEY...MIAMI...WABASH AND WEST CENTRAL ALLEN
COUNTIES...

AT 411 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR SOUTH WHITLEY TO NEAR NORTH MANCHESTER TO MEXICO
TO NEAR LOGANSPORT...AND MOVING SLOWLY EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS ALONG WITH
NICKLE SIZE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LOGANSPORT...HUNTINGTON...PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...GRISSOM
AFB...SOUTH WHITLEY...ANDREWS...WALTON...BUNKER HILL...MEXICO...
ABOITE...WELLS...FLORA...ROANOKE...MIAMI...ERIE...DENVER...ROANN AND
LAGRO.

&&

LAT...LON 4076 8652 4084 8614 4105 8575 4105 8569
      4108 8569 4114 8556 4113 8526 4084 8538
      4068 8574 4059 8611
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 309DEG 17KT 4106 8555 4093 8581 4080 8611 4073
8642

SLL

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