River Flood Warning 76, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
903 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT MON JUL 12 2015

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. THE GREATER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80 IN SOUTH CENTRAL
MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 80S INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

MARGINAL SEVERE RISK EXISTS WITH THE MORNING BOW ECHO. ESPECIALLY
FOCUSED AT THE APEX OF THE BOW WHERE A REAR INFLOW JET HAS
DEVELOPED. CURRENT WIND REPORTS ARE IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH
RANGE...BUT EXPECT SOME REINTENSIFICATION AS THIS TRAVELS SOUTH
WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY WARMED A FEW DEGREES.
OVERALL...EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
MORNING COMPLEX TO BE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. FOCUS WILL THEN
TURN TO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE ANOTHER UPDATE DISCUSSION BY
LATE MORNING ONCE THE MORNING MCS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND
THE PICTURE FOR THIS AFTERNOON BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

INTERESTING CONDITIONAL SEVERE EPISODE IN THE MAKE WITH NOTABLE
VARIABLES WHICH INCLUDE ONGOING SEVERE UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACRS
SRN/CNTL WI AND RESULTANT OUTFLOWS/BOUNDARIES AND CONVECTIVE
RENEWAL TIMING UPSTREAM BY MID/LATE AFTN WITH LOW POTNL FOR
DUAL/CONSECUTIVE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WITH THE LATTER NOT TO TRACK
THROUGH REGION UNTIL EARLY TUE AM...SEVERAL HOURS AFTER FIRST.
WILL FOCUS PRIMARILY ON THE FIRST TWO EPISODES WITH MAINTENANCE OF
CONVECTION FAVORED ALONG SHARP INSTABILITY/ISODROSOTHERMAL
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD FOCUS WI BOWING SEGMENT APEX OF WI SQUALL
LINE ADVANCEMENT MORE RIGHT/SRLY WITH TIME...ADVANCING INTO WRN
CWA AFTER 12 UTC. STRENGTHENING WNWLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD ALSO
ALLOW EWD SPREAD THROUGH SCNTL CWA THROUGH AM HOURS AS STORMS
BECOME ELEVATED INTO ERN FRINGES OF WARM ADVECTION LEAF. PRIMARY
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW CORE TO LIKELY EXTEND NW/SE FM NRN IL TO WCNTL
IN. ESTABLISHED RICH POOL OF LWR/MID 70S SFC DPS ACRS MID MS VLY
WITH ERN BOUNDARY THROUGH NERN IL TO SRN IN. AS UPSTREAM SWRLY
FLOW STRENGTHENS LATER TODAY STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION INTO
SWRN/SRN CWA...ENHANCED FURTHER BY EFFECTIVE CNTL IL
EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE PROCESSES...WILL FOCUS STRONG SFC BASED
INSTABILITY RESERVOIR /5000+ J/KG IN SWEPT ARC S-SW- W-NW OF CWA
BY MID/LATE AFTN. MEANWHILE STRENGTHENING AND VEERING MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO 50-60KTS. FOCUS FOR INITIATION UPSTREAM ACRS
WI IN MID/LATE AFTN HOURS APPEARS TIED TO EJECTION OF DUMBELLED
SHORTWAVE FEATURE ACRS NRN MN TIED TO PRESENTLY REXED WAVE NEAR
ND/SASK/MAN BORDERS. AS LEAD SHORTWAVE ENTERS RAPID CONFLUENCY
BTWN HUDSON BAY VORTEX AND STOIC NRN TX RIDGE. SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT INDUCEMENT TO CONVECT WITH SUBSEQUENT/RAPID
INTENSIFICATION...WITH EVOLUTION INTO LINEAR SEGMENT/S/ BY EVENING
AND ENTRY INTO NWRN/WRN CWA BYND 00 UTC. DEEP LYR SHEAR ON ORDER
OF 45 KTS FAR SWRN CWA TO 30 KTS NE ALONG WITH PRESENTATION OF
INSTABILITY FAVORS SWRN/SRN CWA FOR SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS LARGEST RISK GIVEN MID LEVEL SPEEDS ENTRAINED INTO REAR
INFLOWS. HIGHLY CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THIRD LATE PD 2 EPSIODE TOO
UNCERTAIN AND DWINDLE SCT TSRA/HIR SHRA POPS TO CHC BYND 06 UTC.
LACK OF STRONG DESTABILZATION DOWNSTREAM OF CONVECTION TRAVERSING
SRN LK MICHIGAN SHOULD KEEP STORMS ACRS NERN CWA BLO SVR LIMITS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST FAIRLY QUIET FROM A RELATIVE PERSPECTIVE. MAIN
VORTICITY LOBE AND ASSOCIATED SECONDARY LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. PRIMARY THETA-E
RIDGE LONG GONE BY THAT POINT BUT ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO TOUCH
OFF SCT/NUM SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. ALSO SOME
MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN THOSE SOUTHERN COUNTIES SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT BUT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS (0.25-0.5 INCHES) WILL BE IN THE SOUTH
AND MAY PROLONG FLOODING DUE TO SHORT TERM CONVECTION.

WED/THURS STILL LOOKING DRY AS GREAT LAKES RECEIVE A HEALTHY DOSE OF
AVA/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS. NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL YIELD A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BUT THERMAL PROFILES NOT PARTICULARLY
COLD AND WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY OFFSET BY A FAIR AMOUNT OF SOLAR
INSOLATION. KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F. RETURN TO
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A MUCH WARMER AND
MOISTURE-LADEN AIRMASS FOLDS BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY COURTESY OF
STALWART SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE. WESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BRING ANOTHER PARADE OF LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEMS INTO THE WEEKEND BUT
(NOT SURPRISINGLY) MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
IMMENSELY WITH EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD
WITH LOW CHANCE POPS UNTIL DETAILS CAN BE SORTED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

UPSTREAM CONVECTION INVOF KSBN AND LINEAR COMPLEX OVR SRN LK MI
REQUIRES TSRA MENTION FROM START AT KSBN THROUGH 15 UTC. TIMING OF
LINE TO KFWA ROUGHLY AROUND 15 UTC. PERTURBED MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER AND PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FUELING/ALTERNATE CIGS
IF NOT BRIEF IFR UNTIL PASSAGE OF TSRA. THEREAFTER...GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND POTNL FOR
RENEWED CONVECTION. FOR NOW COVER WITH VCTS AT 02/04 UTC FOR

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003-012-013-015-
     020-022>027-032>034.

MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BENTLEY
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...MURPHY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
540 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-140945-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
540 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 69. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...ESPECIALLY WEST OF ROUTE 31.

THE GREATER RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE FROM THIS EVENING
UNTIL ABOUT 2 AM. THE PRIMARY RISK IS DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY PRODUCE FLOODING. THE GREATEST THREAT
AREA IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BENTON HARBOR TO FORT WAYNE TO
FINDLAY LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-140945-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
540 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF 40 KNOTS OR GREATER
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HIGH WAVES ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
953 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0953 AM     HAIL             MILLERSBURG             41.52N 85.69W
07/13/2015  E0.88 INCH       ELKHART            IN   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

MSL

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1011 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0912 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MOTTVILLE               41.80N  85.76W
07/13/2015                   ST. JOSEPH         MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TREE WAS DOWN NEAR MOTTVILLE BLOCKING HIGHWAY 12

&&

SKIPPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1020 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1014 AM     HAIL             HUNTERTOWN              41.22N 85.17W
07/13/2015  E0.88 INCH       ALLEN              IN   PUBLIC

            TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AS WELL. FROM TWITTER.

&&

MSL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1020 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

INZ009-017-018-025>027-OHZ004-005-015-016-024-131500-
HUNTINGTON-ALLEN-ADAMS-WHITLEY-DE KALB-WELLS-PUTNAM-VAN
WERT-HENRY-DEFIANCE-PAULDING-
1020 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN DE KALB...
NORTHEASTERN WELLS...NORTHERN HUNTINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN WHITLEY...
NORTHERN ADAMS...ALLEN...PAULDING...VAN WERT...PUTNAM...SOUTHEASTERN
HENRY AND DEFIANCE COUNTIES...

AT 1019 AM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR HICKSVILLE TO 7 MILES NORTH OF HUNTINGTON...AND
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  DEFIANCE AND OSSIAN AROUND 1035 AM EDT.
  DECATUR...MONROEVILLE AND HOLGATE AROUND 1045 AM EDT.
  DESHLER AND CONVOY AROUND 1050 AM EDT.
  VAN WERT AROUND 1055 AM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE ABOITE...PETERSON...
MARK CENTER...DULL...DUNFEE...GOBLESVILLE...CLOVERDALE...WISTERMAN...
GROVER HILL AND MELROSE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 469 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 30.
 INTERSTATE 69 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 289 AND 317.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4073 8463 4073 8480 4070 8481 4095 8563
      4139 8471 4131 8388 4107 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 1419Z 277DEG 68KT 4135 8473 4099 8549

JBALL