River Flood Warning 114, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
601 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...PRIMARILY IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 30S. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES AND
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. QUIET WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH JUST A CHANCE OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

A WELCOME RETURN TO QUIET WEATHER TODAY. SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND WEAKENING. SOME RESIDUAL WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE WILL LIFT INTO OUR CWA TODAY ALONG WITH COOLER
THERMAL PROFILES THAT WILL OFFSET ANY DIURNAL CONTRIBUTION TO TEMPS.
UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SOME SPORADIC WEAK RETURNS BUT SURFACE
REPORTS OF PRECIP ARE VERY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE DEPTH AND VERY WEAK FORCING. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
OVER THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS BUT RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS BY LATE MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY SHUT OFF MOST PRECIP. CUT BACK POPS FOR TODAY AS A
RESULT. ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN OUR MICHIGAN COUNTIES WHERE WESTERLY
FETCH OFF THE LAKE COULD ADD JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SOME CONCERN FOR DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE GIVEN
LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE -10C. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP ARE
SMALL AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE HOVERING AROUND 33-37 SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES IN OUR
FAR N/NW TONIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z WED.
LOW TEMPS ONLY AROUND 30F UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

SHRTWV OVER THE SWRN CONUS THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT NE
ACROSS OUR NW PORTION OF OUR CWA WED. GULF MOISTURE SHUNTED WELL
E-SE OF THE CWA BY TODAY'S SYSTEM WHILE STRONGER FORCING ALONG AND
WEST OF TRACK OF VORT MAX STAYS TO OUR NW... THUS MAINTAINED JUST
A CHC OF LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY NW PORTION OF CWA WHERE MINOR SNOW
ACCUMS PSBL. CAA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FAIRLY WK BUT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE SCT LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WED NGT-
FRI AS LOW LEVEL WNW FLOW DVLPS/PERSISTS WITH WK LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY AND WK SHRTWV'S MOVG E-SE FROM THE PLAINS/CANADA.
TEMPS IN THIS TIMEFRAME SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL. LATEST
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST ERN NORTH AMERICA TROF WILL PROGRESS
TO THE WRN ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING WRN RIDGE TO MOVE
INTO THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY PROVIDING FAIR WX WITH A SLOW WARMING
TREND ACROSS OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH AND MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CONDITIONS TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT KSBN. MAY BE UNTIL ROUGHLY 13Z
BUT EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS OVER CHICAGO TO MIGRATE EASTWARD.
CONFIDENCE MUCH LOWER AT KFWA WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS LESS CLEAR
CUT AND UPSTREAM OBS HIGHLY VARIABLE. LEFT KFWA MVFR BUT EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO BE VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME MARGINAL
IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME
EXTENDS OVER A LARGE AREA AND WILL LIKELY NOT DISSIPATE BEFORE
NEXT WAVE APPROACHES WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...AGD

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
440 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-300945-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
440 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015 /340 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MINOR FLOODING WILL OCCUR ON MANY RIVERS IN THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SOME RIVERS IN THE AREA
THROUGH LATE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED... BUT REPORTS OF TOTAL
PRECIPITATION FROM YESTERDAYS STORM ARE APPRECIATED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-300945-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
440 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT MAY CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN SHORELINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE