Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
726 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA TONIGHT AND EXIT THE STATE BY MID DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN RAINY WEATHER TONIGHT AND EARLY ON SATURDAY.

COOLER HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH IN TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN BACK TO
THE AREA AS THE NEW WORK WEEK BEGINS.

COOLER WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS AS NORTHERLY FLOW FROM CANADA IS
EXPECTED TO SPILL INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST TO OKLAHOMA.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA BETWEEN
CRAWFORDSVILLE AND LAFAYETTE TO SOUTH OF MUNCIE. RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FEATURE.
FURTHERMORE RADAR SHOWING SIGNS OF MCV OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALOFT CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHORT WAVE OVER
ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN...PUSHING SE TOWARD INDIANA.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE THE VERY FAVORABLE SET UP FOR PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT. THE UPPER SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA
TONIGHT...PROVIDING FORCING AS THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
SATURATION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AT
00Z. LOWER LEVEL Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE REMAINS FAVORABLE. TIME
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE AND GOOD LIFT AVAILABLE.
THUS WILL CONTINUE ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND CONTINUE 100
POPS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z. PRECIP
INTENSITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP OFF AFTER 06Z AS THE SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO PULL NORTHEAST AND BEST FORCING IS LOST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT THAT TIME TREND TOWARD SOME DRIER AIR INTRUDING INTO
THE COLUMN. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD LESSER POPS OVERNIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO DEPART...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND LOWS TOWARD WET BULB TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE
WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BE LINGERING ACROSS
OHIO ON SATURDAY MORNING. BROAD CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUE TO
SHOW PLENTIFUL LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...AS DO
THE FORECAST SOUNDING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE ALOFT...AN UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THUS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE SOME
POPS ON SATURDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHEST POPS EAST...CLOSEST TO THE
THE LOW AND LESSER POPS TO THE WEST. WITH WRAP AROUND FLOW
EXPECTED AT THIS POINT...HEAVY RAINS WILL NOT BE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEPART FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF
THE STATE...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY
FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
CLOUDS MAY LINGER DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH ALOFT. WILL TREND HIGHS
ON SATURDAY COOLER THAN MAVMOS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL BE EXPECTED AS
THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE UPPER TROUGH EXITING TO
THE NORTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT AMID SUBSIDENCE. GIVEN THE COOLER
WESTERLY FLOW...WILL TREND LOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT CLOSE TO MAVMOS.
WITH FULL SUN EXPECTED SUNDAY...WILL ALSO TREND HIGHS CLOSE TO
MAVMOS FOR NOW.

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED WITH STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
AND A DEEPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. AS
THIS FEATURE ARRIVES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...IT APPEARS TO ARRIVE WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH. GULF MOISTURE WILL BE CUT OFF WITH THIS ONE...THUS
ANY PRECIP WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE OF WHAT WE HAVE PREVIOUSLY
SEEN. WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND INCLUDE POP CHANCES ON SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS THIS TROUGHY PATTERN ALOFT AND THE SURFACE LOOKS TO
REMAINS. WILL TREND LOWS ON SUNDAY WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS ON
MONDAY COOLER WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WAS CAPTURED WELL BY THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION...SO WILL NOT DIVERT FROM THOSE NUMBERS. AS WEAK
WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW...PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BE ENHANCED AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST
SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS
ENHANCEMENT TOO BY BRINGING LIKELY POPS INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 270000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AT THE SITES.
CURRENTLY RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH INDIANA.
THUNDER REMAINS AWAY FROM THE SITES AND ONLY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD
POSSIBLY GET CLOSE TO KBMG SO KEPT VCTS THERE BUT DROPPED IT
EVERYWHERE ELSE. CEILINGS ARE MAINLY MVFR RIGHT NOW AND IF THEY
AREN/T ALREADY SHOULD DROP TO THAT SOON. STARTING AROUND 3-4Z
SHOULD SEE CEILINGS DROPPING TO IFR WITH THE LOW AND FRONT OVER
THE AREA AND ACCORDING TO TIME HEIGHTS WILL STAY THAT WAY THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SATURDAY CEILINGS SHOULD START TO COME UP TO MVFR
AROUND 14-16Z OR SO AND THEN TO HIGHER MVFR OR VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AROUND TOMORROW WITH AN
UPPER LOW TO THE EAST BUT LEFT THESE OUT AND JUST KEPT THE
CEILINGS WITH POSITION/TIMING UNCERTAIN. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
TOMORROW AS WELL OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20-25 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
945 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-271000-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
945 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROLL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM SATURDAY. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...AND
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEASTERN PARTS
OF CENTRAL INDIANA. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN SEVERE THREATS.

HAZARDS: TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

TIMING: TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ALONG A STALLED
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH DEEP MOISTURE
AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
STORMS WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. MORE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STALLS IN THE VICINITY. SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAKS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION: ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES
ALONG WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL COMBINE TO BRING
MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL INDIANA NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

KOCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
616 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 S COVINGTON           40.07N  87.39W
06/26/2015  M2.30 INCH       FOUNTAIN           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TODAYS RAINFALL TOTAL AS OF 6 PM

&&

CP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
708 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 S CASTLETON           39.88N  86.05W
06/26/2015  M0.76 INCH       MARION             IN   CO-OP OBSERVER

            RAIN FELL IN ABOUT 25 MINUTES. STANDING WATER ON THE
            ROADS. SOME WATER SLIGHTLY BACKING UP OUT OF DRAINAGE
            SEWERS.

&&

MMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
913 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MUNCIE                  40.20N  85.39W
06/26/2015  M3.11 INCH       DELAWARE           IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            3.11 DAILY TOTAL AS OF 9 PM AT BALL STATE. 1.89 INCHES
            FROM 8-9PM.

&&

CP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
926 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W MUNCIE              40.20N  85.43W
06/26/2015                   DELAWARE           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STREETS FLOODED IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD.

&&

MMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
927 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W MUNCIE              40.20N  85.43W
06/26/2015                   DELAWARE           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PONDING IN NEIGHBORHOOD ROADS.

&&

MMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
928 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W MUNCIE              40.20N  85.43W
06/26/2015                   DELAWARE           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STREETS FLOODED IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD. PONDING WORSE THAN
            THAT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

MMB