Winter Storm Warning 3, NWS Lincoln, IL

033 
WWUS43 KILX 160315
WSWILX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
915 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2015

ILZ066>068-071>073-161000-
/O.CON.KILX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150217T0000Z/
EFFINGHAM-JASPER-CRAWFORD-CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EFFINGHAM...FLORA...LAWRENCEVILLE
915 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY. 

* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
  AND MONDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY BETWEEN
  MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND NOON ON MONDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 8 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS MAINLY 
  ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. 

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
  THROUGH MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...
AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

ILZ052-061>063-161000-
/O.CON.KILX.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-150217T0000Z/
CHRISTIAN-SHELBY-CUMBERLAND-CLARK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAYLORVILLE...SHELBYVILLE
915 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST
MONDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST
MONDAY. 

* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE
  AFTERNOON HOURS OF MONDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS
  MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND NOON ON MONDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES.

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY
  OVERNIGHT...WITH HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
  THE DAY ON MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

SMITH

168 
WWUS43 KILX 160400
WSWILX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1000 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2015

ILZ066>068-071>073-161000-
/O.CON.KILX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150217T0000Z/
EFFINGHAM-JASPER-CRAWFORD-CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EFFINGHAM...FLORA...LAWRENCEVILLE
1000 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY. 

* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT 
  AND MONDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY BETWEEN 
  MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND NOON ON MONDAY. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 8 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS MAINLY 
  ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. 

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL 
  CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...
AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

ILZ049>051-161000-
/O.EXA.KILX.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-150217T0000Z/
SCOTT-MORGAN-SANGAMON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACKSONVILLE...SPRINGFIELD
1000 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST
MONDAY.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 
  AFTERNOON HOURS OF MONDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS 
  MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND NOON ON MONDAY. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF
  A WINCHESTER TO JACKSONVILLE TO SPRINGFIELD LINE...AND FROM 2 TO
  4 INCHES TO THE SOUTH.

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY 
  OVERNIGHT...WITH HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS CONTINUING 
  THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

ILZ052-061>063-161000-
/O.CON.KILX.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-150217T0000Z/
CHRISTIAN-SHELBY-CUMBERLAND-CLARK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAYLORVILLE...SHELBYVILLE
1000 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST
MONDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST
MONDAY. 

* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE 
  AFTERNOON HOURS OF MONDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS 
  MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND NOON ON MONDAY. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES.

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY 
  OVERNIGHT...WITH HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS CONTINUING 
  THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

SMITH

793 
WWUS43 KILX 161003
WSWILX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
403 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015

ILZ066>068-071>073-161800-
/O.CON.KILX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150217T0000Z/
EFFINGHAM-JASPER-CRAWFORD-CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EFFINGHAM...FLORA...LAWRENCEVILLE
403 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING. 

* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST ADDITIONAL
  ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY UP UNTIL NOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 9 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS MAINLY
  ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL 
  CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...
AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

ILZ049>052-061>063-161800-
/O.CON.KILX.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-150217T0000Z/
SCOTT-MORGAN-SANGAMON-CHRISTIAN-SHELBY-CUMBERLAND-CLARK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACKSONVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
TAYLORVILLE...SHELBYVILLE
403 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING. 

* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH THIS
  AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR
  BEFORE NOON TODAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH 
  OF A WINCHESTER TO JACKSONVILLE TO SPRINGFIELD LINE...AND FROM 
  2 TO 4 INCHES TO THE SOUTH. 

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY 
  OVERNIGHT...WITH HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS CONTINUING 
  THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$


SHIMON

361 
WWUS43 KILX 161642
WSWILX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1042 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015

ILZ049>052-161745-
/O.CAN.KILX.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-150217T0000Z/
SCOTT-MORGAN-SANGAMON-CHRISTIAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACKSONVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
TAYLORVILLE
1042 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

SNOW HAS ENDED FROM CHRISTIAN COUNTY WESTWARD...THEREFORE THE
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED IN THIS AREA. SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM
THE AREA HAVE RANGED FROM AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES.

$$

ILZ066>068-071>073-170000-
/O.CON.KILX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150217T0000Z/
EFFINGHAM-JASPER-CRAWFORD-CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EFFINGHAM...FLORA...LAWRENCEVILLE
1042 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING. 

* TIMING...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AFTERNOON
  TODAY...TAPERING OFF TOWARD EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY 1 TO 2
  INCHES. STORM TOTALS 6 TO 10 INCHES.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL 
  CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...
AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

ILZ061>063-170000-
/O.CON.KILX.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-150217T0000Z/
SHELBY-CUMBERLAND-CLARK-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SHELBYVILLE
1042 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING. 

* TIMING...SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 INCH. STORM
  TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES.

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND
  SLIPPERY...WITH HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
  THE DAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$


ONTON

956 
WWUS43 KILX 161719
WSWILX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1119 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015

ILZ066>068-071>073-170000-
/O.CON.KILX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150217T0000Z/
EFFINGHAM-JASPER-CRAWFORD-CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EFFINGHAM...FLORA...LAWRENCEVILLE
1119 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING. 

* TIMING...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AFTERNOON 
  TODAY...TAPERING OFF TOWARD EVENING. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY 1 TO 2 
  INCHES. STORM TOTALS 6 TO 10 INCHES. 

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL 
  CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...
AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

ILZ061>063-170000-
/O.CON.KILX.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-150217T0000Z/
SHELBY-CUMBERLAND-CLARK-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SHELBYVILLE
1119 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING. 

* TIMING...SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 INCH. STORM 
  TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES. 

* IMPACTS...ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND 
  SLIPPERY...WITH HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 
  THE DAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

ONTON

442 
WWUS43 KILX 162332
WSWILX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
532 PM CST MON FEB 16 2015


ILZ066>068-071>073-170045-
/O.CAN.KILX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150217T0000Z/
EFFINGHAM-JASPER-CRAWFORD-CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EFFINGHAM...FLORA...LAWRENCEVILLE
532 PM CST MON FEB 16 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. 

THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAS ENDED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. 

$$

ILZ061>063-170045-
/O.CAN.KILX.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-150217T0000Z/
SHELBY-CUMBERLAND-CLARK-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SHELBYVILLE
532 PM CST MON FEB 16 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL HAS SHIFTED OUT OF OUR AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

$$

SMITH

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1144 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2015

16z/10am satellite imagery shows clouds blanketing all but the far
NE KILX CWA around Danville and Paris. After another hour or two
of sunshine, clouds will overspread this area as well. Later in
the day, an area of 700mb frontogenetic forcing will develop well
north of an approaching system from northern Missouri into
south-central Illinois. Airmass will initially be quite dry, so
think measurable precip will hold off until evening after column
moistening occurs. Will maintain just low chance PoPs across the
far W/SW CWA after 21z in case some light snow/flurries can make
it to the ground at that time. Current forecast has a good handle
on the situation, so no major updates are planned at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2015

The wind speeds have diminished to around 8-12 mph, with air temps
slightly warmer than originally forecast. The surface ridge axis has
maintained across our counties from NW to SE, with the pressure
gradient weakening over the past couple of hours. That combo has
worked to keep our wind chills slightly warmer than advisory
criteria in most locations. BMI finally reached -15F wind chill at 3
am, with DNV/CMI/Lacon all very close. High clouds are advancing
into our western counties, which will work to keep temps from
dropping much farther in that area. We are close enough to advisory
wind chills across the northern portion of the advisory to keep that
going, but will remove the southern row of counties.

Beyond that, the main concern turns to the onset of snow with the
next system passing by to the south of IL. The 00z models trended
farther north with the coverage of snowfall for later today, so have
added some low chance PoPs to the 23z time frame and slights at 22z
along our far SW county border from Winchester to Flora. Do not
expect much accumulation before 6 pm however.

High temps will remain well below normal due to the very cold air
remaining in place under the surface ridge. Will keep highs in the
mid-teens north, with around 20 toward Lawrenceville. Winds will
shift from north to the east by afternoon with speeds generally in
the 5 to 10 mph range.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2015

Will issue a winter weather advisory for southern 8 counties tonight
and Monday for 3-6 inches of snow with the heaviest amounts near 6
inches along and south of highway 50 over southern parts of Clay,
Richland and Lawrence counties. 00Z forecast models have made a big
shift northward with the storm system tonight and Monday and are now
bringing several inches of snow to southern IL with even higher
amounts of 6-10 inches south of CWA where winter storm warnings
are posted. Snow ratios will be fairly high in cold airmass (15-20:1)
so a fluffy snow. Winds will be less than 10 mph during this
event so not much blowing or drifting snow. If models continue
further northward trends, then southern counties especially Clay,
Richland and Lawrence may need to be upgraded to a winter storm
warning tonight and Monday. Southeast IL has not seen much snow so
far this winter, with most areas just getting around 1 inch or
less since Dec 1.

Forecast models now show a stronger surface low pressure moving
further north from the southern MS river valley across the TN river
valley Monday. A frontogenetic band of snow to develop north of this
low over southern half of IL by this evening and continue into
Monday across southeast IL with snow mainly south of I-72 and a sharp
north to south gradient of snowfall amounts. Dry air in place to
initially limit snowfall amounts at beginning of event this
afternoon/evening. Lows tonight range from 8-13F with coldest
readings from I-74 ne. Highs Monday in the lower to middle 20s.

Low pressure lifts ne across the mid Atlantic states Monday night
ending the snow over southeast IL by sunset Monday while some light
snow off the Great Lakes moves across ne IL and generally stays ne
of CWA. Upper level trof to dig southward over the Midwest during
midweek bringing another surge of arctic air into the region. Highs
Wed may not even reach 10F north of I-72 while lows Wed night dip to
zero to 5 below over central IL with wind chills of 15-20 below zero
Wed night into mid morning Thu, so a wind chill advisory may be needed
then.

Arctic high pressure ridge settles over IL by sunset Thu then shifts
east of the state Friday while next weather system brings a chance
of light snow Friday night and Saturday and lingering in southeast
IL Sat evening. ECMWF and GFS models differ with handling the timing
and position of this weather system and qpf amounts so stayed close
to guidance pops late this week. Temperatures to modify toward the
weekend but still average below normal for late February.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2015

12z models are in good agreement concerning approaching winter
storm system, with all solutions keeping the bulk of the snow
south of the central Illinois terminals tonight. KSPI and KDEC
will be on the northern fringe of the precip, so will lower ceilings
to MVFR at KSPI by 04z and at KDEC by 06z. Visbys may be reduced
to around 3-4sm at the peak of the light snow overnight, before
precip exits early Monday morning. Will end the snow, but maintain
MVFR ceilings after 13-14z. Further north, VFR conditions will
prevail through the entire 18z TAF period for the I-74 terminals.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST
Monday FOR ILZ052-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Barnes

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1154 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2015

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>051-053>057-161200-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-COLES-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-
MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PEORIA-PIATT-
SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-WOODFORD-
1154 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO WIND-CHILLS ONCE AGAIN LIKELY BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ052-061>063-066>068-071>073-161200-
CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-
LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-SHELBY-
1154 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 PM CST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING...WITH SNOW
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT COULD REACH
BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES. ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SNOW
COVERED AND SLIPPERY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING...THEN TAPER OFF MONDAY
AFTERNOON. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS
EXPECTED...WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50
FROM FLORA TO LAWRENCEVILLE. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL CONTINUE ON
MONDAY DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS.

ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH SUB-ZERO WIND-CHILLS ONCE AGAIN LIKELY BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.

BARNES