Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
857 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING INTO WEST
CENTRAL IL FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING AROUND 4000
J/KG MLCAPE VALUES ALONG/SOUTH OF THE LINE WITH 30-50 KTS 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF IL. AS A RESULT...ORGANIZED
SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING THROUGH
WEST CENTRAL IL AND A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM.
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS IN THIS AREA INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH OR GREATER...LARGE HAIL...AND THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EAST AND SOUTH
THROUGH CENTRAL/SE IL OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND LARGELY SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTH
CENTRAL IL TOWARD POCKET OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY. HAVE SENT
UPDATES TO FORECASTS FOR SHORT-TERM TRENDS IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LARGELY USING HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL DEFINED BY 1006 MB SURFACE LOW
OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WITH 580 DM 500 MB LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY DAWN SUNDAY. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS 1.5-3K FT
OVER EASTERN HALF OF CWA WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE IS KEEPING CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL DRY SO FAR
TODAY.  HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN IA AND
TRACKING EAST INTO NW IL AND SW WI MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 WILL EVOLVE
INTO A LARGER MCS SYSTEM THAT WILL DROP SE TOWARD THE IL RIVER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL IL DURING
THIS EVENING, REACHING SOUTHEAST IL OVERNIGHT WHERE CONVECTION
CHANCES LOWER TO 30% FROM I-70 SOUTH. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS AS FAR SE AS A TAYLORVILLE TO DANVILLE LINE TONIGHT WHILE
ENHANCED RISK WAS EXPANDED SE TO NEAR THE IL RIVER. AREAS WEST OF IL
RIVER HAVE 30% RISK OF LARGE HAIL (2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER) AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH A 5% RISK OF TORNADOES. VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING WITH
CAPES RISING TO 2500-4500 J/KG IN WESTERN COUNTIES (EVEN NEAR 5000
J/KG BY 00Z/7 PM IN SW IA/NE MO AND FAR WEST CENTRAL IL AROUND
QUINCY. MEANWHILE BULK SHEAR IS 30-40 KTS OVER NORTHERN CWA MAINLY
FROM I-72 NORTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-1.8 INCHES OVER
IA THIS AFTERNOON TO SHIFT INTO CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING AND COULD
CAUSE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. MUGGY LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 70S OVER
CENTRAL/SE IL WITH UPPER 60S FAR NW BY GALESBURG.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE AREA
TOMORROW AND THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COULD BE SOME LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
OVERNIGHT MCS THAT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR
SOUTH WILL THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GET BY MORNING. FORCING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MORE STORMS AND AGREE
WITH SPC THAT A SLIGHT RISK IS WARRANTED OVER PARTS OF THE CWA
TOMORROW THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD A LITTLE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...SO PCPN
CHANCES WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD SOME. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS FORECASTING
STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND THIS WILL KEEP THE FRONT
FROM GOING TOO FAR NORTH...AND WILL LIKELY BE OVER OR NEAR THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. THEREFORE...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE
PCPN...BUT TIMING OF WHEN THESE WILL BE THIS FAR OUT IS TOO
UNCERTAIN. SO WILL JUST KEEP POPS THE WHOLE TIME AND THEN MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS AS THE EVENTS GET CLOSER.

TEMPS WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE WARMEST DAYS BEING
MON THROUGH WED. A RELATIVELY STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH
LATE IN THE WEEK AND THIS SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR FRI
AND SAT. GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOK OK BUT WENT LITTLE WARMER IN THE
EXTENDED THAN MEX GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

THE LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA IS
EVOLVING INTO A SQUALL LINE A LITTLE SOONER THAN EARLIER
INDICATIONS. THERE REMAINS SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS, BUT THE LINE OF
STORMS SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MOMENTUM TO
OVERCOME SOME OF THAT CIN. STORM STRENGTH MAY WEAKEN THE FARTHER
THE LINE PROGRESSES INTO ILLINOIS, ALLOWING THE LINE TO SLOW DOWN
AND STALL IN A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION, DROPPING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER SMALLER AREAS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT MAY
TRANSITION FROM WIND AND HAIL TO FLASH FLOODING BY MIDNIGHT OR
SHORTLY AFTER. PIA IS STILL UNDER THE GUN FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
OF 45-50KT AS THE LINE REACHES THEM BETWEEN 03Z-05Z/10PM-
MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP A TEMPO FOR THEM AND BMI AS THE STORM TRACK
HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF REACHING THAT FAR E-SE. SPI, DEC, AND CMI
WILL LIKELY SEE THE LATER STAGES OF THE COMPLEX ARRIVE AFTER
MIDNIGHT, POSSIBLY AS LAST AS 3AM/08Z FOR CMI. HAVE SLOWED DOWN
THE TIMING OF STORM ARRIVAL FOR ALL TAFS, AND INCREASED PEAK GUSTS
IN THE TEMPO TO 45KT FOR PIA AND BMI. WE KEPT ONLY VCTS FOR THE
OTHER TERMINAL SITES UNTIL THE EVOLUTION OF THE LINE BECOMES MORE
APPARENT LATER THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE LINE OF
STORMS, WITH SPEEDS OF 12-18KT. WINDS WILL THEN TRANSITION TO
WEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...SHIMON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
321 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

ILZ027>031-036>038-040-041-211100-
FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-PEORIA-SCHUYLER-STARK-TAZEWELL-
WOODFORD-
321 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
UP TO GOLF BALL OR LARGER ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS...ALTHOUGH
TORRENTIAL RAINS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE.

MODERATE FLOODING...WITH A FORECAST OF MAJOR FLOODING AT HAVANA
THIS WEEKEND...WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING...MAINLY AFTER 6 PM.

ILZ042>053-211100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-LOGAN-MACON-MENARD-MORGAN-PIATT-
SANGAMON-SCOTT-VERMILION-
321 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

MODERATE FLOODING...WITH A FORECAST OF MAJOR FLOODING AT HAVANA
THIS WEEKEND...WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER. MINOR
FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE SANGAMON RIVER NEAR MONTICELLO THIS
WEEKEND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS FROM SPRINGFIELD
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 9 PM.

ILZ054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-211100-
CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-
JASPER-LAWRENCE-MOULTRIE-RICHLAND-SHELBY-
321 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
OVER SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WABASH...LITTLE
WABASH...AND EMBARRAS BASINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1033 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N JACKSONVILLE        39.74N 90.23W
06/20/2015                   MORGAN             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN

0955 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FRANKLIN                39.62N 90.05W
06/20/2015                   MORGAN             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN AT HEARTS PRAIRIE RD AND RT. 104

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1050 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1009 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N BUFFALO             39.91N 89.41W
06/20/2015                   SANGAMON           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING RT. 54. FROM LOGAN CO. EM.

1014 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MECHANICSBURG           39.81N 89.40W
06/20/2015                   SANGAMON           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON MOBILE HOME

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1059 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MORRISONVILLE           39.42N 89.46W
06/20/2015                   CHRISTIAN          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SMALL TREE LIMBS DOWN

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1105 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DECATUR                 39.85N 88.93W
06/20/2015                   MACON              IL   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON GRAND AVE. FROM WAND-TV.

&&

25

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