Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Lincoln, IL

982 
WWUS53 KILX 072255
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
555 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

ILC107-113-125-179-072305-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0052.000000T0000Z-150607T2300Z/
MASON-LOGAN-TAZEWELL-MCLEAN-
555 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL MASON...NORTHERN
LOGAN...SOUTHEASTERN TAZEWELL AND SOUTHWESTERN MCLEAN COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 600 PM CDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE 
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR 
PROPERTY. THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER 
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

LAT...LON 4023 8966 4049 8964 4050 8914 4015 8915
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 272DEG 24KT 4038 8955 

$$

BARNES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
329 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

20Z/3PM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO INITIATE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...MAINLY ALONG A HENRY...TO GALESBURG...TO
FORT MADISON IOWA LINE. THESE STORMS WILL BE INTERACTING WITH A
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CHARACTERIZED BY
SBCAPE VALUES OF 3000 TO 3500J/KG.  0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-35KT
SHOULD HELP ENHANCE/SUSTAIN THE THUNDERSTORM CELLS AS THEY TRACK
E/SE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.  HRRR SHOWS THE CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS MAINLY
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA...THEN EXITING INTO INDIANA BY
AROUND 01Z.  AFTER THAT...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MISSOURI THIS EVENING...THEN PUSH
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT.  BY THAT
POINT THE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY HAVE BEEN STABILIZED BY THE FIRST
ROUND OF CONVECTION EARLY IN THE EVENING...SO ADDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS MINIMAL. DESPITE THIS...AM STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
1.50 TO 1.75.  SINCE THERE IS CURRENTLY A MONTHLY AND YEARLY
RAINFALL DEFICIT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THE STORMS WILL
BE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...THINK WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS
UNLIKELY.  WILL THEREFORE NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT
INSTEAD HIT HEAVY RAIN THREAT HARD IN THE HWO...ZONE FORECAST...AND
ESF.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY A WEAK TROUGH THAT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE GRT
LKS REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. THEN AS
EVERYTHING PUSHES FURTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
TRY AND BRING SOME PCPN INTO THE REGION FOR WE AND WED NIGHT BUT
BELIEVE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO IF THERE IS ANY PCPN THEN IT
WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND ONLY WORTH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE
GRIDS...WHICH WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THE WORDED FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES HOLD OVER THE AREA AND TROUGH
DEVELOPS OUT IN THE PLAINS...PCPN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES SO WILL JUST KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH OF THUR AND
THUR NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE WHOLE AREA FOR FRI THROUGH SUNDAY.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...SITTING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S MOST OF THE AREA. HIGHS AROUND 90 WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE TIMING OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER TODAY. 1730Z RADAR/SATELLITE MOSAICS
SHOW A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY FOR THE TIME BEING...HOWEVER AS THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST...THUNDERSTORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY GREATLY...SO THEY ARE OF LITTLE
USE TO THE FORECAST. GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL
DEVELOP SLIGHTLY LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...WITH A LINE OF
CONVECTION FORMING FROM NEAR KORD TO KGBG AROUND 20Z. HAVE
TAILORED THE AVIATION FORECAST ACCORDINGLY...FEATURING TEMPO GROUP
FOR THUNDER AND MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z AT KPIA...THEN
BETWEEN 23Z AND 02Z FURTHER SOUTH AT THE I-72 TERMINALS. ONCE THE
INITIAL LINE OF STORMS PASSES...MANY MODELS HINT THAT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE
HANDLED THAT WITH PREDOMINANT RAIN WITH VCTS THROUGH THE 08-09Z
TIME FRAME. AFTER THAT HAVE GONE DRY WITH A VFR CEILING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...BARNES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
347 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

ILZ027>031-036>038-040-041-081100-
FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-PEORIA-SCHUYLER-STARK-TAZEWELL-
WOODFORD-
347 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...HAIL
UP TO QUARTER-SIZED...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE PRIMARY
TIME FRAME FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THROUGH 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH A MUCH
LOWER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

AFTER A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY...PARTICULARLY
THROUGH 8 PM.

ILZ042>057-061-081100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-COLES-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-LOGAN-MACON-
MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PIATT-SANGAMON-SCOTT-SHELBY-VERMILION-
347 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...HAIL
UP TO QUARTER-SIZED...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE PRIMARY
TIME FRAME FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND
10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH A MUCH
LOWER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

AFTER A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY...PARTICULARLY
BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-081100-
CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
347 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING. WHILE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 6
PM AND MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH A MUCH
LOWER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

AFTER A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY...PARTICULARLY
BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

BARNES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1116 AM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N NORMAL              40.55N 89.00W
06/07/2015  M1.50 INCH       MCLEAN             IL   MESONET

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
424 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NW PEORIA             40.80N 89.68W
06/07/2015  E60.00 MPH       PEORIA             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ESTIMATED 60 MPH THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST REPORTED NEAR
            NORTHWOODS MALL.

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N PEORIA              40.77N 89.61W
06/07/2015                   PEORIA             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN.

0400 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 N PEORIA              40.77N 89.61W
06/07/2015  E75.00 MPH       PEORIA             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ESTIMATED 75 MPH WIND GUST.

0402 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NW PEORIA             40.80N 89.68W
06/07/2015                   PEORIA             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE BLOWN DOWN OF UNKNOWN SIZE NEAR LAKE AND UNIVERSITY

0416 PM     TSTM WND DMG     METAMORA                40.79N 89.36W
06/07/2015                   WOODFORD           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN

0419 PM     TSTM WND GST     GLASFORD                40.57N 89.81W
06/07/2015  M78.00 MPH       PEORIA             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MEASURED 78 MPH WIND GUST

&&

EJL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
501 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0409 PM     HAIL             GLASFORD                40.57N 89.81W
06/07/2015  E1.75 INCH       PEORIA             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

0409 PM     TSTM WND GST     GLASFORD                40.57N 89.81W
06/07/2015  E80 MPH          PEORIA             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

0446 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 N LEXINGTON           40.67N 88.78W
06/07/2015                   MCLEAN             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
504 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND GST     EUREKA                  40.72N 89.28W
06/07/2015  E65.00 MPH       WOODFORD           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ESTIMATED 65 MPH WIND GUST IN EUREKA

&&

EJL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
513 PM CDT SUN JUN 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             1 N HAVANA              40.31N 90.06W
06/07/2015  E0.88 INCH       MASON              IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MILLER