Alert archive / Illinois / River Flood Warnings in 2015

River Flood Warning 67, NWS Lincoln, IL

December 26, 2015McLean County, Tazewell County, Woodford County, Illinois

NWS Lincoln, IL issued this river flood warning at Dec 26, 2015, 11:03 PM CST for McLean County, Tazewell County, Woodford County, Illinois. It took effect at Dec 28, 2015, 8:24 AM CST. It was in force for 3 days.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 26, 2015, 11:03 PM CST (05:03 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 28, 2015, 8:24 AM CST
Expired
Dec 31, 2015, 6:30 PM CST
In force
3 days
Issued by
NWS Lincoln, IL
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Moderate

Counties McLean County, IL, Tazewell County, IL, Woodford County, IL

The radar

The Lincoln radar (KILX), 54 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Mackinaw River near Congerville (CNGI2). The gauge peaked at 18.53 ft at Dec 30, 2015, 12:00 AM CST.

actionminormoderatemajor510152012/2712/2812/2912/3012/3101/0101/02
Action stage
10 ft
Minor stage
13 ft
Moderate stage
14 ft
Major stage
20 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 05567500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

342 
WGUS43 KILX 270503
FLWILX


FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 
1103 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...The National Weather Service in Lincoln IL has issued a flood 
warning for the following rivers in Illinois...

  Mackinaw River near Congerville affecting McLean...Tazewell and 
  Woodford Counties

.Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are likely across parts of central 
Illinois through Monday night. This will cause significant rises 
on the Mackinaw River at Congerville, with the river reaching
flood stage by Monday night or early Tuesday morning.    

The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with interests along this river need to prepare for flooding.
Stay tuned for further updates on this flooding situation.

&&

ILC113-179-203-271903-
/O.NEW.KILX.FL.W.0067.151229T0000Z-151231T1545Z/
/CNGI2.2.ER.151229T0000Z.151230T0000Z.151231T0945Z.NO/
1103 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

The National Weather Service in Lincoln IL has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Mackinaw River near Congerville.
* From Monday evening until Thursday morning.
* At 1045 PM Saturday the stage was 5.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Monday evening and continue to
  rise to near 15.4 feet by Tuesday evening.The river will fall below
  flood stage by next Thursday morning.


&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Sun    Mon    Tue

Mackinaw River
 Congerville       13   5.7 Sat 11 PM    6.2   11.1   14.7


&&

LAT...LON 4070 8906 4062 8907 4061 8920 4051 8933
      4056 8939 4068 8925             

$$
Smith
10 follow-up statements
777 
WGUS83 KILX 271629
FLSILX

FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 
1029 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Illinois...

  Mackinaw River near Congerville affecting McLean...Tazewell and 
  Woodford Counties.
  
.Rapid rises are continuing on the Mackinaw River in response to
Saturday's rainfall. The river near Congerville is expected to 
reach flood stage a bit earlier than first projected, now around 
midday Monday. 

The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternate
route. Turn around, don't drown.

Additional river and weather information is available at 
www.weather.gov/ilx.

&&

ILC113-179-203-280629-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0067.151228T1525Z-151231T0800Z/
/CNGI2.2.ER.151228T1525Z.151229T1200Z.151231T0200Z.NO/
1029 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Mackinaw River near Congerville. 
* From Monday morning until late Wednesday night.
* At  945 AM Sunday the stage was 10.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 13 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning and continue 
  to rise to near 15.9 feet by Tuesday morning. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by Wednesday evening.

&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Mon    Tue    Wed

Mackinaw River
 Congerville       13  10.5 Sun 10 AM   12.6   15.9   14.7


&&

LAT...LON 4070 8906 4062 8907 4061 8920 4051 8933
      4056 8939 4068 8925             

$$
Geelhart
631 
WGUS83 KILX 280227
FLSILX


FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 
827 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Illinois...

  Mackinaw River near Congerville affecting McLean...Tazewell and 
  Woodford Counties

The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternate
route. Turn around, don't drown.

Additional river and weather information is available at 
www.weather.gov/ilx.

&&

ILC113-179-203-281627-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0067.151228T1424Z-151231T0824Z/
/CNGI2.2.ER.151228T1424Z.151229T1200Z.151231T0224Z.NO/
827 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Mackinaw River near Congerville. 
* From Monday morning until late Wednesday night.
* At 1245 PM Sunday the stage was 11.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning and continue 
  to rise to near 16.2 feet by Tuesday morning.The river will fall 
  below flood stage by Wednesday evening.

&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Mon    Tue    Wed

Mackinaw River
 Congerville       13  11.2 Sun 1 PM    12.8   16.2   14.9


&&

LAT...LON 4070 8906 4062 8907 4061 8920 4051 8933
      4056 8939 4068 8925             

$$
Smith
538 
WGUS83 KILX 281637
FLSILX

FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 
1037 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Illinois...

  Mackinaw River near Congerville affecting McLean...Tazewell and 
  Woodford Counties.
  
.River levels continue to rise from the recent heavy rain, and are 
near flood stage near Congerville. Additional rises are expected 
through Tuesday morning, before the river begins to fall. 

The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternate
route. Turn around, don't drown.

Additional river and weather information is available at 
www.weather.gov/ilx.

&&

ILC113-179-203-290637-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0067.000000T0000Z-151231T0916Z/
/CNGI2.2.ER.151228T1205Z.151229T0600Z.151231T0316Z.NO/
1037 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Mackinaw River near Congerville. 
* Until late Wednesday night.
* No observed stage is available, but it was estimated to be 
  near 13 feet at 10 AM. 
* Flood stage is 13 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise to near 16.9 feet by early tomorrow morning. 
  The river will fall below flood stage by Wednesday evening.

&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Tue    Wed    Thu

Mackinaw River
 Congerville       13  11.2 Sun 1 PM    16.9   15.8   11.6


&&

LAT...LON 4070 8906 4062 8907 4061 8920 4051 8933
      4056 8939 4068 8925             

$$
Geelhart
240 
WGUS83 KILX 290331
FLSILX


FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 
931 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Illinois...

  Mackinaw River near Congerville affecting McLean...Tazewell and 
  Woodford Counties

The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternate
route. Turn around, don't drown.

Additional river and weather information is available at 
www.weather.gov/ilx.

&&

ILC113-179-203-291731-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0067.000000T0000Z-151231T0900Z/
/CNGI2.2.ER.000000T0000Z.151229T0600Z.151231T0300Z.NO/
931 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Mackinaw River near Congerville. 
* Until late Wednesday night.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is forecast to crest at 16.9 feet early tomorrow
  morning.


&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Tue    Wed    Thu

Mackinaw River
 Congerville       13   MSG    16.9     15.7   11.7   11.2


&&

LAT...LON 4070 8906 4062 8907 4061 8920 4051 8933
      4056 8939 4068 8925             

$$
914 
WGUS83 KILX 291711
FLSILX


FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 
1111 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Illinois...
  Mackinaw River near Congerville affecting McLean...Tazewell and 
  Woodford Counties

The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternate
route. Turn around, don't drown.

Additional river and weather information is available at 
www.weather.gov/ilx.

&&

ILC113-179-203-300711-
/O.CON.KILX.FL.W.0067.000000T0000Z-151231T0900Z/
/CNGI2.2.ER.000000T0000Z.151229T1800Z.151231T0300Z.NO/
1111 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Mackinaw River near Congerville. 
* Until late Wednesday night.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is forecast to have a maximum value of 16.8 
  feet this afternoon.


&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Wed    Thu    Fri

Mackinaw River
 Congerville       13   MSG             15.7   11.6    7.7


&&

LAT...LON 4070 8906 4062 8907 4061 8920 4051 8933
      4056 8939 4068 8925             

$$
727 
WGUS83 KILX 300317
FLSILX


FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 
917 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Illinois...

  Mackinaw River near Congerville affecting McLean...Tazewell and 
  Woodford Counties

The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternate
route. Turn around, don't drown.

Additional river and weather information is available at 
www.weather.gov/ilx.

&&

ILC113-179-203-301717-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0067.000000T0000Z-151231T0600Z/
/CNGI2.2.ER.000000T0000Z.151230T0600Z.151231T0000Z.NO/
917 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Mackinaw River near Congerville. 
* Until late Wednesday night.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is forecast to have a maximum value of 14.2 
  feet early tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Widespread agricultural flooding occurs.

&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Wed    Thu    Fri

Mackinaw River
 Congerville       13   MSG    13.9   11.4    7.6


&&

LAT...LON 4070 8906 4062 8907 4061 8920 4051 8933
      4056 8939 4068 8925             

$$
085 
WGUS83 KILX 301727
FLSILX


FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 
1127 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Illinois...

  Mackinaw River near Congerville affecting McLean...Tazewell and 
  Woodford Counties

The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternate
route. Turn around, don't drown.

Additional river and weather information is available at 
www.weather.gov/ilx.

&&

ILC113-179-203-310727-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0067.000000T0000Z-160101T0527Z/
/CNGI2.2.ER.000000T0000Z.151230T1630Z.151231T2327Z.NO/
1127 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Mackinaw River near Congerville. 
* Until Thursday evening.
* At 1030 AM Wednesday the stage was 17.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow afternoon.

&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Thu    Fri    Sat

Mackinaw River
 Congerville       13  17.6 Wed 10 AM   15.0   10.0    8.2


&&

LAT...LON 4070 8906 4062 8907 4061 8920 4051 8933
      4056 8939 4068 8925             

$$
030 
WGUS83 KILX 310401
FLSILX


FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 
1001 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Illinois...
  Mackinaw River near Congerville affecting McLean...Tazewell and 
  Woodford Counties

The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternate
route. Turn around, don't drown.

Additional river and weather information is available at 
www.weather.gov/ilx.

&&

ILC113-179-203-311801-
/O.CON.KILX.FL.W.0067.000000T0000Z-160101T0527Z/
/CNGI2.2.ER.000000T0000Z.151230T1630Z.151231T2327Z.NO/
1001 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Mackinaw River near Congerville. 
* Until Thursday evening.
* At 1030 AM Wednesday the stage was 17.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow afternoon.

&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Thu    Fri    Sat

Mackinaw River
 Congerville       13  17.6 Wed 10 AM   15.0   10.7    8.6


&&

LAT...LON 4070 8906 4062 8907 4061 8920 4051 8933
      4056 8939 4068 8925             

$$
407 
WGUS83 KILX 311644
FLSILX

FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 
1044 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Illinois...

  Mackinaw River near Congerville affecting McLean...Tazewell and 
  Woodford Counties.
  
.The river continues to fall, and flooding near Congerville is 
expected to subside by this evening. 

The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternate
route. Turn around, don't drown.

Additional river and weather information is available at 
www.weather.gov/ilx.

&&

ILC113-179-203-010644-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0067.000000T0000Z-160101T0742Z/
/CNGI2.2.ER.000000T0000Z.151230T1630Z.160101T0142Z.NO/
1044 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Mackinaw River near Congerville. 
* Until late Thursday night.
* At  945 AM Thursday the stage was 14.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 13 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  this evening.

&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Fri    Sat    Sun

Mackinaw River
 Congerville       13  14.3 Thu 10 AM   11.8    9.4    7.9


&&

LAT...LON 4070 8906 4062 8907 4061 8920 4051 8933
      4056 8939 4068 8925             

$$
Geelhart
029 
WGUS83 KILX 010030
FLSILX


FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
630 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following river in 
Illinois...

  Mackinaw River near Congerville affecting McLean...Tazewell and 
  Woodford Counties

The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation. River levels are 
expected to continue falling.

Since flooding has subsided, this will be the last statement for this
flooding event.

ILC113-179-203-010100-
/O.CAN.KILX.FL.W.0067.000000T0000Z-160101T0742Z/
/CNGI2.2.ER.000000T0000Z.151230T1630Z.151231T2207Z.NO/
630 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Mackinaw River near Congerville.
* At  515 PM Thursday the stage was 12.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at  407 PM Thursday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 9.4 feet by Saturday 
  morning.


&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Fri    Sat    Sun

Mackinaw River
 Congerville       13  12.7 Thu 5 PM    11.8    9.4    7.9


&&

LAT...LON 4070 8906 4062 8907 4061 8920 4051 8933
      4056 8939 4068 8925             

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Dec 26, 8:40 PM CST, 2 hours 23 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 26, 8:40 PM CST, 2 hours 23 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
840 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

Rather persistent band of rain and isolated thunderstorms from
this afternoon into early this evening is showing signs of
backing more to the north and northwest as the frontal boundary
over extreme southeast Illinois shifts north. It still appears
the axis of heavy rain will be roughly along the I-72 corridor
and north where we have already received 2 to 3 inches of rain
already. Meanwhile, further north, winds were starting to increase
out of the north as a weak surface low tracks northeast along the
frontal boundary over southeast Illinois. Precipitable water values
on the 00z ILX sounding were up to 1.3 inches this evening, well
above were it should be for late December. Current forecast has
only a few changes to it, mainly for temperatures and winds this
evening, as a result, no ZFP update will be needed at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

Steady stream of rain and embedded thunderstorms continues to track
northeast out of Missouri this afternoon. Areas northwest of the
Illinois River have remained on the periphery of the rain through
the day and little has accumulated up there, but a more substantial
northward push is expected this evening as the frontal boundary
starts to pivot a bit. Latest water vapor imagery shows a deep upper
low over southeast Arizona with a steady plume of moisture coming up
from Texas into the Midwest. Precipitable water values remain in
record territory for late December, around 1.4 inches through
tonight, although some decrease will occur from the northwest late
as the frontal boundary tracks southeast again. Another 1.5 to 2.5
inches of rain is likely across the watch area overnight. Have
maintained thunder mention over most areas southeast of the Illinois
River with a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE available, with some more
numerous storms south of I-70.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

Two largest concerns this forecast period: 1. Heavy rain and
flooding potential from around I-72 corridor southward through
Monday afternoon, and 2. potential for significant icing from
freezing rain northwest of the Illinois River Sunday night/Monday
morning.

The flash flood watch will continue through Monday afternoon for
areas along and south of the I-72 corridor where storm total
rainfall of 4 to 5 inches is expected beginning Saturday morning
through Monday evening. Have already seen reports to around 1.75
inch of rainfall from morning rain/thunderstorms inside a swath
from around Taylorville to Danville.

While rainfall looks to be on the lighter side Sunday
morning...another round of moderate to heavy rain looks to spread NE
across central IL late in the day sunday as the intense low
currently over the Southwest approaches. Precipitable water values
approaching 1.25 inches will wrap around the low...and enough
instability indicated for a chance of thunderstorms south of a line
from Springfield to Paris. Temperatures will max out around 39 at
Galesburg to 53 at Lawrenceville Sunday...cooling off through the
day as colder air pushes in from the NW.

Freezing rain will be a possibility Sunday night as the push of low
level cold air continues northwest of the Illinois River Sunday
night. Although uncertainty with timing and extent of subfreezing
temperatures exist...accumulations could be rapid for several hours
starting early Monday morning and have issued a winter storm watch
for Knox and Stark counties for the potential of significant icing
to around one quarter inch. Temperatures look to rise above freezing
Monday afternoon ending the ice accumulation threat.

East to northeast Winds will become substantial Sunday night through
Monday...with speeds 20 to 30 mph mainly north of I-70 as intense
pressure gradients surrounding the low arrive.

The 12Z extended forecast models and their ensembles are in good
agreement with a cooler and drier weather pattern setting up during
2nd half of week. A weak weather system to move into the Midwest on
Wednesday and bring small chances of light rain and snow to central
IL with mainly light rain chances southeast of I-70. Deeper moisture
to stay SE of IL Wed so any precipitation that occurs will be quite
light. Highs Wed mainly in the 30s with some lower 40s southeast of
I-70. Large Canadian high pressure settling into the nations
heartland, brings even cooler temperatures Thu thru Saturday to
central IL despite return of partly sunny skies with highs in mid to
20s to around 30 northern CWA and 30-35 southeast of I-70.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

Large area of rain continues to stream northeast out of Missouri
late this afternoon and that is expected to continue through the
overnight hours as well bringing mostly IFR/LIFR conditions to
the forecast area. Rain with isolated TSRA are expected with the
better thunder chances mostly around SPI and DEC. The rain looks
to begin to taper off from northwest to southeast later tomorrow
morning into the afternoon as one phase of the storm moves out of
the area. Still looking at least MVFR cigs during the day with
some IFR conditions where the rain lingers longer, mainly at SPI
and DEC.

Surface winds will be variable in direction for the next few
hours but are expected to shift into the north to the northeast
and increase over the area after 02z, with speeds in the 10 to 15
kt range thru about 07z before winds increase to 12 to 17 kts with
gusts up to 27 kts at times into Sunday morning. During the day
Sunday, we look for winds in the 360-030 direction at 20 to 30 kts
with gusts to around 35 kts at times as the main part of the storm
starts to move in our direction.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

Widespread river flooding is anticipated to develop over the next
couple days, due to the large area of 2 to 5 inch rains forecast.
Have issued some sort of statement or outlook for all 16 river
forecast points in our CWA. With a lot of it based on QPF, we issued
Hydrologic Outlooks for the Mackinaw, Vermilion, Sangamon and
Vermilion Rivers, as well as Salt Creek near Greenview and the
Illinois River at Henry. At the moment, the only river that may be
borderline in terms of flood potential is the Spoon River, but the
forecast QPF does bring London Mills very close to flood stage. With
the rains that have occurred so far today heavier than expected due
to the morning convection, flood warnings may need to be expanded
with the evening hydrologic model run. This would be most likely
with the Sangamon River.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday
afternoon for ILZ027-028.

Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for ILZ044>046-
049>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...Smith
HYDROLOGY...Geelhart
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 26, 3:20 PM CST, 7 hours 43 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
320 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

ILZ027-028-271200-
KNOX-STARK-
320 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND A HALF INCH ARE LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES IS LIKELY BY THE TIME
THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER IN LOW SPOTS AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES BACK OVER TO
RAIN. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH ARE
POSSIBLE...WHICH WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES
BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THE RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
RAINFALL MEASUREMENTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WOULD BE GREATLY
APPRECIATED.

ILZ029>031-036>038-040>043-047-048-271200-
CASS-DE WITT-FULTON-LOGAN-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-PEORIA-
SCHUYLER-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
320 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH ARE LIKELY...WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS SOUTH OF PEORIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
I-72 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL CAUSE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
RIVER FLOODING BY MONDAY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER...BEFORE
THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES BACK OVER TO RAIN. MINOR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES.
THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE MINOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
RAINFALL MEASUREMENTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WOULD BE GREATLY
APPRECIATED.

ILZ049-050-271200-
MORGAN-SCOTT-
320 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY
BY SUNRISE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.
THE RAIN MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. AREAS OF
FLOODING MAY DEVELOP WITH TIME. MINOR FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON THE ILLINOIS RIVER THIS WEEKEND...WITH RISES CONTINUING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...
RAINFALL MEASUREMENTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WOULD BE GREATLY
APPRECIATED.

ILZ044>046-051>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-271200-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-
EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MACON-MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-
SANGAMON-SHELBY-VERMILION-
320 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IS LIKELY TONIGHT...WITH LOCAL
HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WHICH COULD CAUSE
FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND LOW SPOTS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO BE LOCATED IN AREAS BETWEEN I-72 AND I-70. WIDESPREAD RIVER
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RAINFALL REPORTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WOULD ALSO BE GREATLY
APPRECIATED.

GEELHART

In the hours before

Local storm report, Dec 26, 5:09 PM CST, 5 hours 54 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
509 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 S DECATUR             39.82N 88.93W
12/26/2015  M1.69 INCH       MACON              IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            AT WAND-TV STUDIOS

0500 PM     HEAVY RAIN       COLES COUNTY AIRPORT    39.48N 88.28W
12/26/2015  M1.76 INCH       COLES              IL   ASOS

0500 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WILLARD AIRPORT         40.04N 88.28W
12/26/2015  M1.31 INCH       CHAMPAIGN          IL   ASOS

0500 PM     HEAVY RAIN       DECATUR AIRPORT         39.83N 88.87W
12/26/2015  M1.79 INCH       MACON              IL   ASOS

&&

GEELHART
Local storm report, Dec 26, 5:17 PM CST, 5 hours 46 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
517 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ARCOLA                  39.68N 88.30W
12/26/2015  E2.00 INCH       DOUGLAS            IL   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT VIA FACEBOOK

&&

GEELHART
Local storm report, Dec 26, 6:42 PM CST, 4 hours 21 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
642 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HEAVY RAIN       DECATUR AIRPORT         39.83N 88.87W
12/26/2015  M1.91 INCH       MACON              IL   ASOS

0600 PM     HEAVY RAIN       COLES COUNTY AIRPORT    39.48N 88.28W
12/26/2015  M1.93 INCH       COLES              IL   ASOS

0600 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WATSON                  39.03N 88.57W
12/26/2015  M1.17 INCH       EFFINGHAM          IL   MESONET

            RAINFALL SINCE 0730 AM

0600 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WILLARD AIRPORT         40.04N 88.28W
12/26/2015  M1.45 INCH       CHAMPAIGN          IL   ASOS

&&

EJL
Local storm report, Dec 26, 9:05 PM CST, 1 hour 58 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
905 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     FLOOD            2 N EFFINGHAM           39.15N 88.55W
12/26/2015                   EFFINGHAM          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL FEET OF STANDING WATER OVER ROAD AT 1800 STREET
            AND TWIN OAKS SUBDIVISION

0700 PM     HEAVY RAIN       DANVILLE                40.14N 87.62W
12/26/2015  M1.80 INCH       VERMILION          IL   COCORAHS

            RAINFALL THE PAST 9 HOURS

0715 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SULLIVAN                39.60N 88.61W
12/26/2015  M2.31 INCH       MOULTRIE           IL   MESONET

            STORM TOTAL SO FAR...SWOP REPORT

0715 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SHELBYVILLE             39.41N 88.80W
12/26/2015  M2.79 INCH       SHELBY             IL   MESONET

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR...SWOP REPORT

0730 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MATTOON                 39.48N 88.37W
12/26/2015  M1.93 INCH       COLES              IL   MESONET

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR...SWOP REPORT

0800 PM     HEAVY RAIN       DANVILLE                40.14N 87.62W
12/26/2015  M1.61 INCH       VERMILION          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR

0810 PM     HEAVY RAIN       OGDEN                   40.12N 87.96W
12/26/2015  M1.75 INCH       CHAMPAIGN          IL   MESONET

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR...SWOP REPORT

0830 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SPRINGFIELD             39.78N 89.64W
12/26/2015  M1.02 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   MESONET

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR...SWOP REPORT

0830 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MOUNT PULASKI           40.01N 89.28W
12/26/2015  M1.19 INCH       LOGAN              IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR

&&

EJL
Local storm report, Dec 26, 9:11 PM CST, 1 hour 52 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
911 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0326 PM     HEAVY RAIN       DANVILLE                40.14N 87.62W
12/26/2015  M1.06 INCH       VERMILION          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

0330 PM     FLOOD            CHARLESTON              39.48N 88.18W
12/26/2015                   COLES              IL   PUBLIC

            PONDING OF WATER IN LOCALIZED AREAS

0400 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ARCOLA                  39.68N 88.30W
12/26/2015  E2.00 INCH       DOUGLAS            IL   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT VIA FACEBOOK

0421 PM     HEAVY RAIN       OGDEN                   40.12N 87.96W
12/26/2015  M1.25 INCH       CHAMPAIGN          IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SINCE 845 AM

0421 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MATTOON                 39.48N 88.37W
12/26/2015  M1.58 INCH       COLES              IL   MESONET

            SWOP REPORT

0421 PM     HEAVY RAIN       TAYLORVILLE             39.52N 89.26W
12/26/2015  M2.15 INCH       CHRISTIAN          IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SINCE 7 AM

0430 PM     FLOOD            ROYAL                   40.19N 87.97W
12/26/2015                   CHAMPAIGN          IL   PUBLIC

            PONDING OF WATER ON SECONDARY ROAD JUST NORTH OF TOWN.
            REPORT VIA TWITTER

0430 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CHARLESTON              39.48N 88.18W
12/26/2015  M2.61 INCH       COLES              IL   PUBLIC

            EAST SIDE OF CHARLESTON. REPORT VIA FACEBOOK

0430 PM     FLOOD            MORRISONVILLE           39.42N 89.46W
12/26/2015                   CHRISTIAN          IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER COVERING HIGHWAY 48 SOUTHWEST OF MORRISONVILLE

0455 PM     FLOOD            PANA                    39.39N 89.08W
12/26/2015                   CHRISTIAN          IL   MESONET

            MULTIPLE STREETS FLOODED WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF FLOWING
            WATER OVER SOME. SWOP REPORT

0500 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 S DECATUR             39.82N 88.93W
12/26/2015  M1.69 INCH       MACON              IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            AT WAND-TV STUDIOS

0500 PM     HEAVY RAIN       DECATUR AIRPORT         39.83N 88.87W
12/26/2015  M1.79 INCH       MACON              IL   ASOS

0500 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WILLARD AIRPORT         40.04N 88.28W
12/26/2015  M1.31 INCH       CHAMPAIGN          IL   ASOS

0500 PM     HEAVY RAIN       COLES COUNTY AIRPORT    39.48N 88.28W
12/26/2015  M1.76 INCH       COLES              IL   ASOS

0600 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WATSON                  39.03N 88.57W
12/26/2015  M1.17 INCH       EFFINGHAM          IL   MESONET

            RAINFALL SINCE 0730 AM

0600 PM     HEAVY RAIN       COLES COUNTY AIRPORT    39.48N 88.28W
12/26/2015  M1.93 INCH       COLES              IL   ASOS

0600 PM     HEAVY RAIN       DECATUR AIRPORT         39.83N 88.87W
12/26/2015  M1.91 INCH       MACON              IL   ASOS

0600 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WILLARD AIRPORT         40.04N 88.28W
12/26/2015  M1.45 INCH       CHAMPAIGN          IL   ASOS

0700 PM     HEAVY RAIN       DANVILLE                40.14N 87.62W
12/26/2015  M1.80 INCH       VERMILION          IL   COCORAHS

            RAINFALL THE PAST 9 HOURS

0700 PM     FLOOD            2 N EFFINGHAM           39.15N 88.55W
12/26/2015                   EFFINGHAM          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL FEET OF STANDING WATER OVER ROAD AT 1800 STREET
            AND TWIN OAKS SUBDIVISION

0715 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SHELBYVILLE             39.41N 88.80W
12/26/2015  M2.79 INCH       SHELBY             IL   MESONET

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR...SWOP REPORT

0715 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SULLIVAN                39.60N 88.61W
12/26/2015  M2.31 INCH       MOULTRIE           IL   MESONET

            STORM TOTAL SO FAR...SWOP REPORT

0730 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MATTOON                 39.48N 88.37W
12/26/2015  M1.93 INCH       COLES              IL   MESONET

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR...SWOP REPORT

0800 PM     HEAVY RAIN       DANVILLE                40.14N 87.62W
12/26/2015  M1.61 INCH       VERMILION          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR

0810 PM     HEAVY RAIN       OGDEN                   40.12N 87.96W
12/26/2015  M1.75 INCH       CHAMPAIGN          IL   MESONET

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR...SWOP REPORT

0830 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MOUNT PULASKI           40.01N 89.28W
12/26/2015  M1.19 INCH       LOGAN              IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR

0830 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SPRINGFIELD             39.78N 89.64W
12/26/2015  M1.02 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   MESONET

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR...SWOP REPORT

&&

EJL
Local storm report, Dec 26, 10:16 PM CST, 47 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1016 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MATTOON                 39.48N 88.37W
12/26/2015  M2.20 INCH       COLES              IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR...SWOP REPORT

&&

EJL

The office that day

Everything else NWS Lincoln, IL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 26, 8:01 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningILXChristian, Effingham, Macon, Moultrie, Shelby8 hr
Dec 26, 8:18 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningILXCrawford, Jasper9 days
Dec 26, 9:16 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningILXSangamon9 days
Dec 26, 9:16 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningILXMenard12 days
Dec 26, 9:16 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningILXCass, Mason, Menard12 days
Dec 26, 9:16 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningILXCass, Mason13 days
Dec 26, 9:21 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningILXMason, Menard6 days
Dec 26, 9:32 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningILXMarshall, Putnam22 days
Dec 26, 10:28 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningILXChampaign, Coles, Cumberland, Douglas, Edgar, Vermilion8 hr
Dec 27, 4:03 AM CSTAreal Flood WarningILXChristian, Effingham, Macon, Moultrie, Piatt, Sangamon and 1 more12 hr
Dec 27, 5:15 AM CSTAreal Flood WarningILXChampaign, Clark, Coles, Cumberland, Douglas, Edgar and 1 more12 hr
Dec 27, 10:41 AM CSTAreal Flood WarningILXEffingham6 hr
Dec 27, 3:15 PM CSTWind AdvisoryILXCass, Champaign, Christian, Coles, DeWitt, Douglas and 21 more26 hr
Dec 27, 3:51 PM CSTAreal Flood WarningILXChampaign, Christian, Clark, Clay, Coles, Cumberland and 10 more24 hr
Dec 27, 4:09 PM CSTWinter Storm WarningILXKnox, McLean, Marshall, Peoria, Stark, Woodford26 hr
Dec 27, 4:09 PM CSTFreezing Rain AdvisoryILXFulton, McLean, Tazewell20 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Illinois, 2015Every river flood warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.