Alert archive / Illinois / River Flood Warnings in 2015
River Flood Warning 59, NWS Lincoln, IL
NWS Lincoln, IL issued this river flood warning at Dec 26, 2015, 3:07 PM CST for Vermilion County, Illinois; Vermillion County, Indiana. It took effect at Dec 27, 2015, 8:46 AM CST. It was in force for 5 days.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 26, 2015, 3:07 PM CST (21:07 UTC)
- In effect from
- Dec 27, 2015, 8:46 AM CST
- Expired
- Dec 31, 2015, 8:57 PM CST
- In force
- 5 days
- Issued by
- NWS Lincoln, IL
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- Minor
Counties Vermilion County, IL, Vermillion County, IN
The radar
The Indianapolis radar (KIND), 122 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point Vermilion River (E-IL) near Danville (DNVI2). The gauge peaked at 26.61 ft at Dec 29, 2015, 8:00 PM CST.
- Action stage
- 16 ft
- Minor stage
- 18 ft
- Moderate stage
- 22 ft
- Major stage
- 28 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 03339000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
568
WGUS43 KILX 262107
FLWILX
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
307 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
...The National Weather Service in Lincoln IL has issued a flood
warning for the following rivers in Illinois...Indiana...
Vermilion River near Danville affecting Vermilion County Illinois
and Vermillion County Indiana...
.Synopsis...
Heavy rain of 1.5 to 2 inches has fallen so far today, and additional
rainfall of 2 to 3 inches is likely to occur through Monday. This
will result in flooding developing near Danville Sunday afternoon.
The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Persons with interests along this river need to prepare for flooding.
Stay tuned for further updates on this flooding situation.
&&
ILC183-INC165-271107-
/O.NEW.KILX.FL.W.0059.151227T2225Z-151231T0200Z/
/DNVI2.1.ER.151227T2225Z.151229T0600Z.151230T2000Z.NO/
307 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
The National Weather Service in Lincoln IL has issued a
* Flood Warning for
The Vermilion River near Danville.
* From Sunday afternoon until Wednesday evening.
* At 245 PM Saturday the stage was 8.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow afternoon and
continue to rise to near 20.8 feet by early Tuesday morning.The
river will fall below flood stage by Wednesday afternoon.
&&
Fld Observed Forecast 6AM
Location Stg Stg Day Time Sun Mon Tue
Vermilion River
Danville 18 8.0 Sat 3 PM 14.0 20.2 20.8
&&
LAT...LON 4015 8776 4015 8760 4001 8744 3990 8744
4008 8763 4008 8776
$$
Geelhart12 follow-up statements
432
WGUS83 KILX 270212
FLSILX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
812 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Illinois...
Indiana...
Vermilion River near Danville affecting Vermilion and Vermillion
Counties
The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternate
route. Turn around, don't drown.
Additional river and weather information is available at
www.weather.gov/ilx.
&&
ILC183-INC165-271612-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0059.151227T1556Z-151231T0632Z/
/DNVI2.2.ER.151227T1556Z.151228T1200Z.151231T0032Z.NO/
812 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Vermilion River near Danville.
* From Sunday morning until late Wednesday night.
* At 745 PM Saturday the stage was 11.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning and continue
to rise to near 22.3 feet by Monday morning.The river will fall
below flood stage by Wednesday evening.
&&
Fld Observed Forecast 6AM
Location Stg Stg Day Time Sun Mon Tue
Vermilion River
Danville 18 11.6 Sat 8 PM 15.9 22.3 21.7
&&
LAT...LON 4015 8776 4015 8760 4001 8744 3990 8744
4008 8763 4008 8776
$$
Smith168
WGUS83 KILX 271450
FLSILX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
850 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Illinois
and Indiana...
Vermilion River near Danville affecting Vermilion County Illinois
and Vermillion County Indiana.
.Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches occurred across east central Illinois
Saturday and Saturday night, which has caused significant rises on the
Vermilion River. At Danville, the river reached flood stage earlier
this morning. It currently is expected to crest Tuesday evening
just shy of moderate flood stage.
The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternate
route. Turn around, don't drown.
Additional river and weather information is available at
www.weather.gov/ilx.
&&
ILC183-INC165-280450-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0059.151227T1446Z-151231T0936Z/
/DNVI2.1.ER.151227T1256Z.151229T0600Z.151231T0336Z.NO/
850 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Vermilion River near Danville.
* From this morning until late Wednesday night.
* At 745 AM Sunday the stage was 18.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 21.7 feet by
Tuesday morning. The river will fall below flood stage Wednesday
evening.
&&
Fld Observed Forecast 6AM
Location Stg Stg Day Time Mon Tue Wed
Vermilion River
Danville 18 18.3 Sun 8 AM 20.8 21.7 20.2
&&
LAT...LON 4015 8776 4015 8760 4001 8744 3990 8744
4008 8763 4008 8776
$$
Geelhart847
WGUS83 KILX 280344
FLSILX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
944 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Illinois...
Indiana...
Vermilion River near Danville affecting Vermilion and Vermillion
Counties
The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternate
route. Turn around, don't drown.
Additional river and weather information is available at
www.weather.gov/ilx.
&&
ILC183-INC165-281744-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-151231T0600Z/
/DNVI2.1.ER.151227T1256Z.151228T1200Z.151231T0000Z.NO/
944 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Vermilion River near Danville.
* Until late Wednesday night.
* At 845 PM Sunday the stage was 20.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 21.2 feet by
tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage Wednesday
evening.
&&
Fld Observed Forecast 6AM
Location Stg Stg Day Time Mon Tue Wed
Vermilion River
Danville 18 20.3 Sun 9 PM 21.2 21.1 19.7
&&
LAT...LON 4015 8776 4015 8760 4001 8744 3990 8744
4008 8763 4008 8776
$$
Smith634
WGUS83 KILX 281433
FLSILX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
833 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015
...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Illinois
and Indiana...
Vermilion River near Danville affecting Vermilion County Illinois
and Vermillion County Indiana
.River levels continue to rise from the recent heavy rain, but the
Vermilion River near Danville is expected to crest toward midnight
tonight.
The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternate
route. Turn around, don't drown.
Additional river and weather information is available at
www.weather.gov/ilx.
&&
ILC183-INC165-290433-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-151231T0920Z/
/DNVI2.1.ER.151227T1256Z.151229T0600Z.151231T0320Z.NO/
833 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Vermilion River near Danville.
* Until late Wednesday night.
* At 745 AM Monday the stage was 20.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 21.6 feet by
early tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage
Wednesday evening.
&&
Fld Observed Forecast 6AM
Location Stg Stg Day Time Tue Wed Thu
Vermilion River
Danville 18 20.9 Mon 8 AM 21.5 20.1 16.5
&&
LAT...LON 4015 8776 4015 8760 4001 8744 3990 8744
4008 8763 4008 8776
$$
Geelhart444
WGUS43 KILX 281909
FLWILX
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
109 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015
...Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity for the
following rivers in Illinois and Indiana...
Vermilion River near Danville affecting Vermilion County Illinois
and Vermillion County Indiana.
.Synopsis...
Additional heavy rain is resulting in further rises on the Vermilion
River, and the river at Danville will reach moderate flood stage
soon. It is expected to crest toward sunrise Tuesday.
The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Persons with interests along this river need to prepare for flooding.
Stay tuned for further updates on this flooding situation.
&&
ILC183-INC165-290909-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-151231T1905Z/
/DNVI2.2.ER.151227T1256Z.151229T1200Z.151231T1305Z.NO/
109 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015
...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Vermilion River near Danville.
* Until Thursday afternoon.
* At 1245 PM Monday the stage was 21.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 23.6 feet by
tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage Thursday
morning.
&&
Fld Observed Forecast 6AM
Location Stg Stg Day Time Tue Wed Thu
Vermilion River
Danville 18 21.8 Mon 1 PM 23.6 21.9 18.2
&&
LAT...LON 4015 8776 4015 8760 4001 8744 3990 8744
4008 8763 4008 8776
$$
Geelhart922
WGUS83 KILX 290255
FLSILX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
855 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015
...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Illinois...
Indiana...
Vermilion River near Danville affecting Vermilion and Vermillion
Counties
The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternate
route. Turn around, don't drown.
Additional river and weather information is available at
www.weather.gov/ilx.
&&
ILC183-INC165-291655-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-151231T1612Z/
/DNVI2.2.ER.151227T1256Z.151229T1200Z.151231T1012Z.NO/
855 PM CST MON DEC 28 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Vermilion River near Danville.
* Until Thursday morning.
* At 845 PM Monday the stage was 23.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 24.5 feet by
tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage early
Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 26.0 feet...Flooding begins downstream in Eugene and
Cayuga Indiana.
&&
Fld Observed Forecast 6AM
Location Stg Stg Day Time Tue Wed Thu
Vermilion River
Danville 18 23.7 Mon 9 PM 24.5 21.6 17.7
&&
LAT...LON 4015 8776 4015 8760 4001 8744 3990 8744
4008 8763 4008 8776
$$
Smith547
WGUS83 KILX 291543
FLSILX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
943 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Illinois...
Indiana...
Vermilion River near Danville affecting Vermilion and Vermillion
Counties
The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternate
route. Turn around, don't drown.
Additional river and weather information is available at
www.weather.gov/ilx.
&&
ILC183-INC165-300543-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-151231T1800Z/
/DNVI2.2.ER.151227T1256Z.151229T1800Z.151231T1200Z.NO/
943 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Vermilion River near Danville.
* Until Thursday afternoon.
* At 845 AM Tuesday the stage was 25.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 25.5 feet by this
afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 26.0 feet...Flooding begins downstream in Eugene and
Cayuga Indiana.
&&
Fld Observed Forecast 6AM
Location Stg Stg Day Time Wed Thu Fri
Vermilion River
Danville 18 25.4 Tue 9 AM 23.6 18.0 14.0
&&
LAT...LON 4015 8776 4015 8760 4001 8744 3990 8744
4008 8763 4008 8776
$$809
WGUS83 KILX 300133
FLSILX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
733 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Illinois...
Indiana...
Vermilion River near Danville affecting Vermilion and Vermillion
Counties
The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternate
route. Turn around, don't drown.
Additional river and weather information is available at
www.weather.gov/ilx.
&&
ILC183-INC165-301533-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-160101T0520Z/
/DNVI2.2.ER.151227T1256Z.151230T0600Z.151231T2320Z.NO/
733 PM CST TUE DEC 29 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Vermilion River near Danville.
* Until Thursday evening.
* At 645 PM Tuesday the stage was 26.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 26.9 feet by
early tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage
Thursday afternoon.
* Impact...At 26.0 feet...Flooding begins downstream in Eugene and
Cayuga Indiana.
&&
Fld Observed Forecast 6AM
Location Stg Stg Day Time Wed Thu Fri
Vermilion River
Danville 18 26.6 Tue 7 PM 26.2 20.1 16.0
&&
LAT...LON 4015 8776 4015 8760 4001 8744 3990 8744
4008 8763 4008 8776
$$407
WGUS83 KILX 301453
FLSILX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
853 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Illinois...
Indiana...
Vermilion River near Danville affecting Vermilion and Vermillion
Counties
The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternate
route. Turn around, don't drown.
Additional river and weather information is available at
www.weather.gov/ilx.
&&
ILC183-INC165-310453-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-160101T0636Z/
/DNVI2.2.ER.151227T1256Z.151230T0130Z.160101T0036Z.NO/
853 AM CST WED DEC 30 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Vermilion River near Danville.
* Until late Thursday night.
* At 745 AM Wednesday the stage was 25.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by
tomorrow evening.
* Impact...At 26.0 feet...Flooding begins downstream in Eugene and
Cayuga Indiana.
&&
Fld Observed Forecast 6AM
Location Stg Stg Day Time Thu Fri Sat
Vermilion River
Danville 18 25.5 Wed 8 AM 20.5 16.2 13.4
&&
LAT...LON 4015 8776 4015 8760 4001 8744 3990 8744
4008 8763 4008 8776
$$482
WGUS83 KILX 310242
FLSILX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
842 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Illinois...
Indiana...
Vermilion River near Danville affecting Vermilion and Vermillion
Counties
The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternate
route. Turn around, don't drown.
Additional river and weather information is available at
www.weather.gov/ilx.
&&
ILC183-INC165-311642-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-160101T0349Z/
/DNVI2.2.ER.151227T1256Z.151230T0130Z.151231T2149Z.NO/
842 PM CST WED DEC 30 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Vermilion River near Danville.
* Until Thursday evening.
* At 745 PM Wednesday the stage was 23.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by
tomorrow afternoon.
&&
Fld Observed Forecast 6AM
Location Stg Stg Day Time Thu Fri Sat
Vermilion River
Danville 18 23.0 Wed 8 PM 20.0 15.5 12.6
&&
LAT...LON 4015 8776 4015 8760 4001 8744 3990 8744
4008 8763 4008 8776
$$060
WGUS83 KILX 311427
FLSILX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
827 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Illinois and
Indiana...
Vermilion River near Danville affecting Vermilion County Illinois
and Vermillion County Indiana.
.River levels continue to fall, and flooding near Danville is
expected to subside this afternoon.
The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternate
route. Turn around, don't drown.
Additional river and weather information is available at
www.weather.gov/ilx.
&&
ILC183-INC165-010331-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-160101T0331Z/
/DNVI2.2.ER.151227T1256Z.151230T0130Z.151231T2131Z.NO/
827 AM CST THU DEC 31 2015
The Flood Warning continues for
The Vermilion River near Danville.
* Until this evening.
* At 745 AM Thursday the stage was 20.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by
this afternoon.
&&
Fld Observed Forecast 6AM
Location Stg Stg Day Time Fri Sat Sun
Vermilion River
Danville 18 20.4 Thu 8 AM 15.2 12.5 10.6
&&
LAT...LON 4015 8776 4015 8760 4001 8744 3990 8744
4008 8763 4008 8776
$$
Geelhart906
WGUS83 KILX 010257
FLSILX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
857 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following river in
Illinois...Indiana...
Vermilion River near Danville affecting Vermilion and Vermillion
Counties
The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation. River levels are
expected to continue falling.
Since flooding has subsided, this will be the last statement for this
flooding event.
ILC183-INC165-010327-
/O.CAN.KILX.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-160101T0331Z/
/DNVI2.2.ER.151227T1256Z.151230T0130Z.160101T0001Z.NO/
857 PM CST THU DEC 31 2015
The Flood Warning is cancelled for
The Vermilion River near Danville.
* At 845 PM Thursday the stage was 17.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at 601 PM Thursday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 12.5 feet by Saturday
morning.
&&
Fld Observed Forecast 6AM
Location Stg Stg Day Time Fri Sat Sun
Vermilion River
Danville 18 17.2 Thu 9 PM 15.2 12.5 10.6
&&
LAT...LON 4015 8776 4015 8760 4001 8744 3990 8744
4008 8763 4008 8776
$$What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Dec 26, 11:36 AM CST, 3 hours 31 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 26, 11:36 AM CST, 3 hours 31 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1136 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 945 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 Elevated convection has been marching steadily northeast this morning, aided by very steep lapse rates of 8C from 700-500 mb observed on our sounding this morning. Recently received a report of 1.15" of rain at Taylorville in about 90 minutes from the storms. Initial batch of convection has now reached Vermilion County and a break in the rain is occurring in many areas west of I-55, but regional radar mosaics show increasing convection across central and southwest Missouri down into northern Arkansas, and this will continue to move toward central and southeast Illinois over the next several hours. Zones/grids have been updated to refine the precipitation and thunderstorm trends. && .SHORT TERM...(Today) ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 The 00z models still support a steady northward progression and development of rainfall this morning, and satellite and radar loops support that scenario. The high precip chances this afternoon still look reasonable, as the overall thermodynamic lift quickly ramps up along the baroclinic zone. Have continued with categorical PoPs southeast of the IL river this afternoon, and likely chances NW of the river. Mid-level lapse rates are supportive of thunder, especially south of I-72, so locally heavy rainfall looks possible in the convective elements. Rainfall amounts today could reach up to an inch in a few locations by 6 pm, especially along I-70. Will keep the start time of the Flash Flood Watch at Noon today as a result. Increasing clouds will limit sunshine, but steady warming in the 650mb to 900mb layer will help support high temps climbing to the mid 60s south of I-70. Colder air in place across our northwest counties will help to limit high temps to the upper 40s NW of the Illinois River. Winds will be gusty from the east at times this morning, but will weaken some this afternoon and shift southeast as a warm frontal boundary develops directly across central Illinois on an axis from SW to NE. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Friday) ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 Flood watch will continue along and south of I-72 from this afternoon through Monday where 4 to 5 inches of rain is expected with locally higher amounts in SW IL, while 2.5 to 4 inches north of this area. There will be two rounds of moderate to heavy rains with 1st one arriving this afternoon and tonight as precipitable water values reach near record levels of 1.5-1.60 inches as far north as I- 72 by this afternoon and into tonight. Thunderstorms will be possible mainly south of a Rushville to Bloomington line this afternoon and tonight. SPC has marginal risk of severe storms south of I-72 this afternoon and early evening as warm front lifts northward to between I-70 and I-72. Moderate rains shift into southeast IL Sunday morning while some drier air working into northern CWA on breezy NNE winds lowers rain chances and temperatures. Highs Sunday range from upper 30s and lower 40s north of I-72 to the 50s southeast of I-70. Another round of moderate to heavy rains to spread ne across central and southeast IL during Sunday night and Monday as precipitable water values rise to between 1-1.50 inches on Monday and highest in southeast IL where isolated thunderstorms expected. Highs Monday to range from upper 30s north of Peoria to lower 50s by Lawrenceville. Models have increased winds to 25-35 kts by Monday and a wind advisory may eventually be needed late Sunday night and Monday. 00Z models have trended a bit further northwest with strong storm system ejecting ne from the 4 corners into central Iowa Monday night and passing ne of lower MI by midday Tue. This further nw track has shifted the chances of freezing rain mainly north of Peoria overnight Sunday night into Monday morning as temps reach near or just below freezing for a time, with less than a tenth inch of ice over mainly Knox, Stark and Marshall counties. The ECMWF model is even warmer with keeping brunt of freezing rain chances north of CWA. The 00Z extended forecast models and their ensembles are in good agreement with a cooler and drier weather pattern setting up during 2nd half of week. A weak weather system to move into the Midwest on Wednesday and bring small chances of light mixed precipitation to central IL with mainly light rain chances southeast of I-70. Deeper moisture to stay SE of IL Wed so any precipitation that occurs will be quite light. Highs Wed mainly in the 30s with some lower 40s southeast of I-70. Large Canadian high pressure settling into the nations heartland, brings even cooler temperatures Thu thru Saturday to central IL despite return of partly sunny skies with highs in mid to upper 20s northern CWA and 30-35 southeast of I-70. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 First wave of rain and convection is exiting KDEC, but periodic rain and isolated storms will continue at KCMI as more rain moves up from Missouri. The rain and storms will become widespread again elsewhere in central Illinois later this afternoon. In the meantime, mainly IFR/LIFR ceilings can be expected, although there are some brief jumps into MVFR and even VFR range immediately along the back edge of the rain. A warm front has lifted up to about the KSPI-KBMI-KCMI area but is not expected to make much more northward progress, and will begin to be pushed back southward late this evening. This will result in winds turning toward the north-northeast and becoming fairly stiff overnight, averaging around 15 knots with gusts increasing to 20-30 knots late tonight and early Sunday. Little change in ceilings is on tap until the rain ends around mid morning Sunday, when some modest increases to low MVFR range are anticipated. && .ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for ILZ044>046- 049>057-061>063-066>068-071>073. && UPDATE...Geelhart SHORT TERM...Shimon LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Geelhart
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 26, 11:13 AM CST, 3 hours 54 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1113 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047-048-271200- CASS-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD- PEORIA-SCHUYLER-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD- 1113 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THESE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION COULD REACH UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES BY LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY THIS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE I-72 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES BACK OVER TO RAIN. MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINOR. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER... RAINFALL MEASUREMENTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED. ILZ049-050-271200- MORGAN-SCOTT- 1113 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION COULD REACH AROUND 2 INCHES BY LATE TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. THE RAIN MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. AREAS OF FLOODING MAY DEVELOP WITH TIME. MINOR FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE ILLINOIS RIVER THIS WEEKEND...WITH RISES CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER... RAINFALL MEASUREMENTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED. ILZ044>046-051>057-061-271200- CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-COLES-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-MACON-MOULTRIE-PIATT- SANGAMON-SHELBY-VERMILION- 1113 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION COULD REACH UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH LOCAL HEAVIER AMOUNTS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WHICH COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND LOW SPOTS. WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL REPORTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WOULD ALSO BE GREATLY APPRECIATED. ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-271200- CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND- 1113 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL TO ONE INCH AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION COULD REACH 1 TO 3 INCHES BY LATE TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF FLOODING ON AREA ROADS AND LOW SPOTS...AND RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINFALL REPORTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WOULD ALSO BE GREATLY APPRECIATED. GEELHART
In the hours before
Local storm report, Dec 26, 1:19 PM CST, 1 hour 48 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
119 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0100 PM HEAVY RAIN MORRISONVILLE 39.42N 89.46W
12/26/2015 M1.60 INCH CHRISTIAN IL PUBLIC
&&
GEELHARTLocal storm report, Dec 26, 2:35 PM CST, 32 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
235 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0230 PM HEAVY RAIN TUSCOLA 39.80N 88.28W
12/26/2015 M1.49 INCH DOUGLAS IL MESONET
AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION AT DOUGLAS COUNTY EOC
0230 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 WSW FITHIAN 40.10N 87.91W
12/26/2015 M1.41 INCH VERMILION IL MESONET
APRS MESONET
&&
GEELHARTLocal storm report, Dec 26, 2:36 PM CST, 31 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
236 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0130 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NW LOVINGTON 39.73N 88.66W
12/26/2015 M1.84 INCH MOULTRIE IL MESONET
HADS MESONET STATION /WORI2/
&&
GEELHARTLocal storm report, Dec 26, 2:38 PM CST, 29 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
238 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0220 PM HEAVY RAIN OGDEN 40.12N 87.96W
12/26/2015 M1.04 INCH CHAMPAIGN IL CO-OP OBSERVER
5-HOUR TOTAL
&&
GEELHARTLocal storm report, Dec 26, 2:47 PM CST, 20 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
247 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0245 PM FLOOD 5 N COWDEN 39.32N 88.86W
12/26/2015 SHELBY IL LAW ENFORCEMENT
WATER OVER IL-128 AROUND THE INTERSECTIONS WITH 700N AND
800N. REPORTED BY SHERIFF
0245 PM FLOOD STEWARDSON 39.26N 88.63W
12/26/2015 SHELBY IL LAW ENFORCEMENT
WATER OVER IL-32. REPORTED BY SHERIFF.
0240 PM FLOOD NEOGA 39.32N 88.45W
12/26/2015 CUMBERLAND IL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
WATER OVER LOW ROADS IN NEOGA AREA
0227 PM FLOOD BISMARCK 40.27N 87.60W
12/26/2015 VERMILION IL LAW ENFORCEMENT
WATER OVER ROAD NEAR THE SCHOOL. REPORTED BY SHERIFF
&&
GEELHARTLocal storm report, Dec 26, 3:04 PM CST, 3 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
304 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0230 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 ENE TAYLORVILLE 39.53N 89.24W
12/26/2015 M1.65 INCH CHRISTIAN IL COCORAHS
0245 PM HEAVY RAIN SULLIVAN 39.60N 88.61W
12/26/2015 M1.68 INCH MOULTRIE IL MESONET
SWOP REPORT
&&
GEELHARTThe office that day
Everything else NWS Lincoln, IL issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 25, 8:06 PM CST | River Flood Warning | ILX | Piatt | 9 days |
| Dec 26, 10:15 AM CST | Areal Flood Advisory | ILX | Christian, Macon, Moultrie, Shelby | 6 hr |
| Dec 26, 11:43 AM CST | Areal Flood Advisory | ILX | Champaign, Vermilion | 4 hr |
| Dec 26, 12:03 PM CST | Areal Flood Advisory | ILX | Champaign, Clark, Coles, Cumberland, Douglas, Edgar and 3 more | 3 hr |
| Dec 26, 2:56 PM CST | Areal Flood Advisory | ILX | Champaign, Clark, Coles, Cumberland, Douglas, Edgar and 5 more | 6 hr |
| Dec 26, 3:51 PM CST | Winter Storm Watch | ILX | Fulton, Knox, Marshall, Peoria, Stark | 24 hr |
| Dec 26, 4:38 PM CST | Areal Flood Advisory | ILX | Christian, Macon, Moultrie, Shelby | 6 hr |
Nearby
River Flood Warnings in Illinois, 2015River Flood Warnings in Indiana, 2015Every river flood warning in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.