Heat Advisory 2, NWS Lincoln, IL

Cass County, IL, Champaign County, IL, Christian County, IL, Clark County, IL, Clay County, IL, Coles County, IL, Crawford County, IL, Cumberland County, IL, DeWitt County, IL, Douglas County, IL, Edgar County, IL, Effingham County, IL, Fulton County, IL, Jasper County, IL, Knox County, IL, Lawrence County, IL, Logan County, IL, Macon County, IL, Marshall County, IL, Mason County, IL, McLean County, IL, Menard County, IL, Morgan County, IL, Moultrie County, IL, Peoria County, IL, Piatt County, IL, Richland County, IL, Sangamon County, IL, Schuyler County, IL, Scott County, IL, Shelby County, IL, Stark County, IL, Tazewell County, IL, Vermilion County, IL, Woodford County, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
628 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NE OF CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING
LEAVING CWA IN A TROPICAL AIRMASS. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT (SPS) TO ADDRESS THE HEAT WAVE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES SHOULD PEAK FROM 100-105F THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHEST READINGS IN WESTERN COUNTIES WHICH MAY COME CLOSE TO
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND 105F ESPECIALLY FROM JACKSONVILLE
WEST. HIGHS OF 89-93F THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY MUGGY DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MCS IN CENTRAL IL NORTH OF I-72 INTO FAR SE
IA. HRRR IS HANDLING THIS ISOLATED CONVECTION WELL AND USED THIS
MODEL FOR FORECAST TODAY WHICH SHIFTS THE ISOLATED CONVECTION
FURTHER SE DURING THE MORNING. UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CAPES OF 2-3K J/KG WILL SUPPORT MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SPC HAS MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL DURING THAT
TIME WITH 5% RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EAST OF PEORIA AND
SPRINGFIELD. BULK SHEAR IS WEAK TODAY (10-20 KTS) SO STORMS WILL NOT
BE TOO ORGANIZED.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

EVEN HOTTER HEAT INDICES EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON PEAKING FROM
104-109F AND HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THEN AND POSSIBLY
IN SOUTHEAST IL ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDICES NEAR 105F.
SAT APPEARS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
WHILE SUNDAY HIGHS RANGE FROM MID 80S NW OF IL RIVER TO 90-95F IN
SOUTH OF I-72. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S TO COMBINE WITH
THESE HOT TEMPS FOR THE HEAT INDICES TOPPING 105F. HEAT INDICES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON RANGE FROM MID 90S OVER IL RIVER VALLEY TO 104-108F
IN SOUTHEAST IL.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON OVER
MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS. THEN INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER AREAS NORTH OF I-72 OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT WITH
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. SPC HAS MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS NW OF LINCOLN SAT NIGHT FOR GUSTY WINDS WHILE
SLIGHT RISK IS NW OF KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES. 00Z FORECAST MODELS
TRACK COLD FRONT SE ACROSS CENTRAL IL ON SUNDAY AND INTO SOUTHEAST
IL SUNDAY EVENING. THIS TO LIKELY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS ALL BUT FAR SOUTHEAST IL IN SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE
BACK INTO THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER IL WITH TEMPS COOLING CLOSER TO NORMAL ON MONDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS OF 82-87F. DEWPOINTS SLIPPING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER CENTRAL AND NW CWA AND LOWER 70S IN
SOUTHEAST IL ON MONDAY. HAVE TRENDED POPS LOWER ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH FRONT GETTING FURTHER SOUTH OF CENTRAL IL INTO THE
TN VALLEY WITH CHANCE POPS IN SOUTHEAST IL, SLIGHT CHANCES CENTRAL
PARTS AND DRY FROM I-74 NORTH.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO EXPAND EAST INTO THE MID MS AND OHIO VALLEYS BY
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMB BACK UP TO LOWER 20SC
WED/THU. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TUE SHOULD ELEVATE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WED AND 85-90F THU, AND UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
NEXT FRI. DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S LATER NEXT WORK WEEK.
ECMWF AND GEM MODELS ARE STILL DRIER DURING MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WHILE GFS MODEL BRINGS QPF BACK INTO CENTRAL IL ON TUE. GFS MODEL IS
AN OUTLIER AND JUST KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OF CONVECTION ON TUE AND
AREAS FROM I-72 NORTH ON WED NIGHT AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

OTHER THAN AN HOUR OR TWO OF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE ONLY SCATTERED CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES AROUND
4000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS OF 3 TO 8 KTS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
530 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047>050-181100-
CASS-FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MASON-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-SCHUYLER-
SCOTT-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
530 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER CENTRAL AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
ALTHOUGH NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 103 TO 108 DEGREES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA.

MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON THE ILLINOIS RIVER
WITH MINOR FLOODING FORECAST ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SPOON RIVER
BASIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ038-042>046-051>057-061-181100-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-COLES-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-LOGAN-MACON-
MCLEAN-MOULTRIE-PIATT-SANGAMON-SHELBY-VERMILION-
530 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TODAY. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO
105 DEGREES.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ALTHOUGH NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED...A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 103 TO 108 DEGREES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FOR LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-181100-
CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
530 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS TODAY. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE
FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.
ALTHOUGH NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...A FEW OF THE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 103 TO 108 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATER SUNDAY...AND LINGER
INTO MONDAY. SOME OF THESE MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WABASH RIVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
807 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       YATES CITY              40.78N 90.01W
07/17/2015  M1.92 INCH       KNOX               IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
825 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NW PEORIA             40.80N 89.68W
07/17/2015  M1.00 INCH       PEORIA             IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MORTON                  40.61N 89.47W
07/17/2015  M1.34 INCH       TAZEWELL           IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
836 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       KNOXVILLE               40.91N 90.29W
07/17/2015  M2.47 INCH       KNOX               IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
837 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CANTON                  40.56N 90.04W
07/17/2015  M1.48 INCH       FULTON             IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

0603 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PEORIA                  40.74N 89.61W
07/17/2015  M1.25 INCH       PEORIA             IL   MESONET

0636 AM     HEAVY RAIN       KNOXVILLE               40.91N 90.29W
07/17/2015  M2.64 INCH       KNOX               IL   MESONET

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N MACKINAW            40.55N 89.36W
07/17/2015  M1.04 INCH       TAZEWELL           IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       GALESBURG               40.95N 90.38W
07/17/2015  M3.04 INCH       KNOX               IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 SSW AVON              40.60N 90.47W
07/17/2015  M2.34 INCH       MCDONOUGH          IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MORTON                  40.61N 89.47W
07/17/2015  M1.34 INCH       TAZEWELL           IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

0721 AM     HEAVY RAIN       SE DUNLAP               40.86N 89.68W
07/17/2015  M1.56 INCH       PEORIA             IL   MESONET

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       KNOXVILLE               40.91N 90.29W
07/17/2015  M2.47 INCH       KNOX               IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       YATES CITY              40.78N 90.01W
07/17/2015  M1.92 INCH       KNOX               IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NW PEORIA             40.80N 89.68W
07/17/2015  M1.00 INCH       PEORIA             IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
932 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 AM     HEAVY RAIN       EUREKA                  40.72N 89.28W
07/17/2015  M1.04 INCH       WOODFORD           IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JRP

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