Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Lincoln, IL

019 
WGUS73 KILX 191629
FFSILX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1129 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

ILC029-041-139-173-191637-
/O.EXP.KILX.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-150619T1630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COLES-MOULTRIE-DOUGLAS-SHELBY-
1129 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR COLES...MOULTRIE...SOUTHERN DOUGLAS
AND CENTRAL SHELBY COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1130 AM CDT...

THE HEAVIES RAIN HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THIS AREA. PLEASE CONTINUE TO 
HEED ALL ROAD CLOSURES AND SOME ROADS ARE STILL CLOSED IN PARTS OF 
MOULTRIE AND SHELBY COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THIS 
AREA THE REST OF TODAY AND MORE FLOODING COULD DEVELOP AGAIN. 

LAT...LON 3954 8797 3933 8901 3961 8901 3980 8796

$$

07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
311 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN
INDIANA TO CENTRAL MISSOURI...GENERALLY ALONG A KANKAKEE...TO
BLOOMINGTON...TO QUINCY LINE.  MEANWHILE...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM BILL ARE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. COLD
FRONT SINKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WILL TEND TO SHUNT BILL TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.  00Z JUNE 19 MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM FROM THE OZARKS THIS
MORNING TO FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA BY SATURDAY.  WITH THIS PARTICULAR
TRACK...AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TODAY.  WILL HOWEVER NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR
IMAGERY...AS A BAND OF RAIN FURTHER FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW COULD
POTENTIALLY COME NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND ESSENTIALLY
STALL AS THE SYSTEM PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD.  AT THIS POINT...NO MODEL
SOLUTION SUPPORTS THIS...ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING A
SOLID RAIN BAND ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI CERTAINLY SUGGESTS IT.  ITS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THE RAIN BAND WILL EVENTUALLY
END UP...BUT BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THINK IT WILL BE NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE I-72 CORRIDOR.  HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH LIKELY
TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM I-72 SOUTHWARD.  FURTHER NORTH...HAVE GONE
WITH A DRY FORECAST NORTH OF A CANTON TO BLOOMINGTON LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

RAIN WILL CONTINUE ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF A CHAMPAIGN TO SPRINGFIELD
LINE THIS EVENING...THEN WILL SLOWLY PULL EASTWARD AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.  ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOW
SHOWING A MORE COMPACT AREA OF PRECIP WITH THE LOW AND ALL SHIFT IT
EASTWARD INTO INDIANA/KENTUCKY BY 18Z SATURDAY.  AS A RESULT...WILL
ONLY CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA SATURDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.  MODEL CONSENSUS
TAKES THE FRONT TO NEAR I-55 BY 12Z SUN...SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE
SE CWA DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THAT...BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THROUGH MIDWEEK
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.  MODELS ARE
STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE EXACT STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...BUT IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT IT WILL NEVER BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE
FRONT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA.  THIS WILL MEAN A CONTINUATION OF
AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  WEDNESDAY STILL
LOOKS LIKE A RELATIVELY DRY DAY AS THE RIDGE REACHES ITS MAXIMUM
STRENGTH BEFORE GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY...AS HIGH TEMPS REACH THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS
RISE WELL INTO THE 70S NEXT WEEK.  THERE ARE HOWEVER SIGNS THAT THE
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ILLINOIS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

SUSTAINED FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF
BILL ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AREA S OF I-72 THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF
SPI, DEC AND POSSIBLY CMI. PIA AND BMI HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
REMAINING DRY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS THEY RESIDE NORTH OF THE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

INITIAL CONCERNS OVERNIGHT WILL BE CEILINGS DROPPING TO IFR BELOW
1K FEET, AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG. WE DON'T EXPECT WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG DUE TO A BLANKET OF CLOUDS, BUT MVFR FOG LOOKS LIKELY
BASED ON THE SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIGHT WINDS ALREADY IN
PLACE.

IFR CEILINGS COULD LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING, BUT THEN SHOULD
LIFT TO MVFR AS VIS IMPROVES ABOVE MVFR AS WELL.

PRECIP CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FRIDAY EVENING,
SO WE DID NOT MENTION ANY RAIN AFTER 00Z/7PM.

WINDS HAVE BECOME EAST AT ALL BUT CMI, WHERE WINDS WENT SOUTHEAST
UNDER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW, SO WIND DIRECTIONS WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH FROM TONIGHT.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ILZ066>068-071>073.

&&

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...SHIMON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
333 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>051-191100-
CASS-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-
MORGAN-PEORIA-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
333 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TONIGHT...A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.

MODERATE FLOODING...WITH A FORECAST OF MAJOR FLOODING AT HAVANA
THIS WEEKEND...WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER...WHILE
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE SANGAMON AND SPOON RIVERS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW OF THE STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT MAY
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74.
OTHERWISE...THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS...ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH...OR ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

ILZ044>046-052>057-061>063-191100-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-COLES-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-MACON-
MOULTRIE-PIATT-SHELBY-VERMILION-
333 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING UNTIL SUNSET WITH PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE SANGAMON...WABASH AND
LITTLE WABASH BASINS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW OF THE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS...
ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH...OR ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

ILZ066>068-071>073-191100-
CLAY-CRAWFORD-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
333 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN AN HOUR IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO WILL THE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TOTALS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...IN OUR
AREA...WE COULD EASILY SEE FROM 2 INCHES TO 2.5 INCHES BY THE
TIME THE SYSTEM SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ENHANCING THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING.

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WORK WEEK. A FEW OF THE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS...HOWEVER... THE
GREATER THREAT WILL BE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH...OR ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1159 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N MACKINAW            40.55N 89.36W
06/18/2015  M1.50 INCH       TAZEWELL           IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            MOST OF THE RAIN FELL OVER THE PAST 45 MINUTES

0700 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CAPITAL AIRPORT         39.84N 89.68W
06/18/2015  M1.34 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   ASOS

            24-HOUR TOTAL

0825 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 N LOUISVILLE          38.84N 88.51W
06/18/2015  M1.51 INCH       CLAY               IL   COCORAHS

            RAINFALL SINCE 7 AM...HEAVY RAIN STILL FALLING

&&

EJL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
521 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S ALLENVILLE          39.54N 88.54W
06/19/2015  M4.50 INCH       MOULTRIE           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OVERNIGHT RAINFALL. 2-DAY TOTAL 6.10.

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
523 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S ALLENVILLE          39.54N 88.54W
06/19/2015                   MOULTRIE           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER OVER ROADS

&&

25