Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Lincoln, IL

036 
WGUS73 KILX 110052
FFSILX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
752 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

ILC123-110230-
/O.CON.KILX.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-150611T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARSHALL-
752 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR
MARSHALL COUNTY...

AT 750 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MARSHALL COUNTY. ROUTE 26...6 MILES NORTH 
OF LACON...HAS BEEN WASHED OUT DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN.  RADAR 
ESTIMATES SHOW OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE AFFECTED 
AREA...IN LESS THAN 2 HOURS. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE...AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO RE-DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
LACON...HENRY...TOLUCA...SPARLAND...VARNA...HOPEWELL...LA ROSE...
MARSHALL COUNTY AIRPORT AND LAKE WILDWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT ENTER OR CROSS FLOWING WATER OR WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. 

&&

LAT...LON 4114 8935 4111 8936 4110 8910 4094 8910
      4099 8958 4112 8958

$$

25

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
303 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

COLD FRONT SLOWLY EDGING TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN
A MUGGY AIRMASS.  LAPS DATA SHOWING 4000-5000 J/KG AVAILABLE ENERGY
BUT SO FAR, CONVECTION HAS NOT YET STARTED.  HOWEVER, CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS INTO ILX NORTHERN TIER.
ADVANCEMENT OF THE FRONT IN THE OVERNIGHT IS LIMITED WITH STRONG WAA
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TO
REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN TIER AT LEAST IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM.  CAPE
WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT ONCE THE SUN SETS AND THE DIURNAL INFLUENCE
IS LOST.  THAT BEING SAID, STILL ENOUGH OF A HUMID AND HOT AIRMASS
TO PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY HAVANA TO DANVILLE. EVEN WITH PWS IN
EXCESS OF 1.5-2"...THE HRRR AND RAP/RUC IS SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THAT BEING SAID, THE
NORTHERN TIER OF ILX IS STILL IN A SLIGHT RISK THROUGH THE
EVENING...AND WITH AMPLE CAPE, EVEN WITHOUT A LOT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR, STORMS CAN EASILY DEVELOP SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

THE 12Z MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING NORTHWARD IN THE
MORNING, IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL CREATE A HOT AND
HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE IL. STORM CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO
THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT NORTHWARD, SO AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
RUSHVILLE TO LINCOLN TO BLOOMINGTON WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES.
SPC INCREASED OUR SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK IN
THAT GENERAL AREA, WITH ELEVATED CAPES OF 2-2500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR
OF 20-25KTS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. SO DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FOR THURS AFTN/EVE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL SLIDE EAST
ACROSS IOWA. A BREAK IN THE STORMS APPEARS LIKELY, UNTIL AROUND
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW REACHES CLOSE TO NW IL. STORM CHANCES
WILL EXPAND TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR
NORTH AND IT DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE
FRONT WILL TRIGGER STORMS, SOME POSSIBLE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND WIND.
SPC HAS US IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WE FOLLOWED
THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
LIKELY POPS, FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL SHOW THE COLD FRONT STALLING OUT ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE FOCUS FOR STORMS
SOUTH OF PEORIA TO BLOOMINGTON. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
HELP LOWER HIGH TEMPS NORTH OF THE FRONT INTO THE LOWER 80S, BUT
HUMIDITY WILL NOT IMPROVE MUCH AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN MID TO UPPER 60S.

THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH
STORM CHANCES INCREASING TO LIKELY ON SUNDAY WEST OF A LINE FROM
EFFINGHAM TO DANVILLE...AS A COUPLE OF STRONG SHORTWAVES TRIGGER
PERIODIC STORMS. LIKELY CHANCES OF RAIN LINGER NORTH OF PEORIA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MORE LIKELY POPS APPEAR EVIDENT IN THE EXTENDED
MODELS FOR TUESDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES FROM KANSAS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

ONE MAIN THEME THROUGHOUT THE 7 DAY FORECAST IS HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE AIRMASS, AND INSTABILITY EVERYDAY. SHEAR PARAMETERS
GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 25KTS, WHICH LENDS TOWARD SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. FLASH FLOODING
COULD BECOME A REAL CONCERN IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED STORM TRACKS
OVER THE NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL RATES OVER SHORT PERIODS OF TIME COULD
EASILY CLIMB AS HIGH AS 3 INCHES PER HOUR...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REPEATEDLY CLIMB TOWARD 2 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
MESSY FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH PERIODIC THUNDER
CHANCES. HAVE OPTED FOR A TEMPO INVOF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS DOMINATE OTHER TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VCTS IS ENOUGH TO COVER SPI AND DEC
THROUGH THIS EVENING. BREAKING FROM VCTS TO VCSH TO LEAVE A BIT OF
A GAP IN THE THUNDER COVERAGE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. SCT
AC ON SAT IMAGERY AND OBS CURRENTLY, SOME MORE SFC BASED CU
EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND LINGERING
SCT LLVL CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY BKN HIGH FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS, ALTHOUGH MODEL TIME HEIGHTS ARE VERY DIFFUSE
WITH THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN AS WELL.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...SHIMON
AVIATION...HJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
315 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>046-111100-
CHAMPAIGN-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-PEORIA-
PIATT-SCHUYLER-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-WOODFORD-
315 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HAIL TO AROUND ONE INCH
DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. AREAS OF RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ON
PORTIONS OF THE ILLINOIS AND SANGAMON RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. AREAS OF
RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK ON PORTIONS
OF THE ILLINOIS AND SANGAMON RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ILZ047>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-111100-
CASS-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-
EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MACON-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-RICHLAND-
SANGAMON-SCOTT-SHELBY-
315 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AREAS OF RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ON PORTIONS OF THE
LITTLE WABASH AND EMBARRAS RIVERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM I-70 NORTHWARD...HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
AREAS OF RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK ON
PORTIONS OF THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

HJS