Areal Flood Warning 8, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1237 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AT THIS POINT IS
BEGINNING TO SETTLE SOUTH OF OF THE REGION, WHERE THE WARM FRONT
HAS BEEN NUDGED A BIT SOUTH DUE TO EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO FIRE FOR AT LEAST
A LITTLE LONGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE, ALTHOUGH A
DOWNWARD TREND SHOULD BE NOTED AS INSTABILITY WANES AND AS A SHORT
WAVE THAT HELPED TO DRIVE THE STORMS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST WITH CELLS PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST INTO A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
FLANK OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE CLUSTER OF STORMS
TO PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST AND BE BASICALLY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH BY
02Z/9PM. THEN THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND ANY NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED
ON THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL AND 18Z NAM...IT APPEARS
THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE WITH THE AFTERNOON STORMS WITH
THE HI-RES/CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE GFS DOES SHOW DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH...IN AREAS THAT CAN NOT TAKE
ANY MORE RAINFALL (ROUGHLY NORTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TO SPRINGFIELD
TO CHAMPAIGN LINE). WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN AREAS THAT HAVE THE LOWEST
FLASH FLOOD GUID VALUES. KNOX COUNTY HAS ALREADY RECEIVED FROM 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY WITH AREAS FURTHER EAST NOW SEEING THE
RAINFALL...SO ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL POSE A
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

SEVERAL STORM COMPLEXES/MCS AND POSSIBLE BOW ECHO LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING AS MODELS DEPICT
AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 3000-3500 ON
SUNDAY ACROSS THE WEST WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING 4000 J/KG
MIXED LAYER CAPES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 35-45KTS. EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION THIS FAR OUT TOUGH
TO PIN DOWN BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A SWATH OF WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE THREAT ON SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE MORE WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS FROM STORM CLUSTERS THE FORM TO OUR NORTHWEST AND SWEEP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SUGGEST THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A COOL FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA TEMPORARILY PUTTING AN END TO THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THRU
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA LATE WED
INTO THU ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN OUR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CWA WIDE ON MONDAY WHEN VALUES
WILL RANGE FROM 100-105.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NORTH OF A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM WEST-CENTRAL IL TO SOUTHEAST
IL...WITH A HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL IL TAF SITES AS OF 05Z.
SHORT-TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE KSPI MAY BE
AFFECTED NEXT FEW HOURS BY THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE MAIN WEATHER
IMPACT WILL BE AREAS OF FOG/HAZE OVERNIGHT...MOST LIKELY KPIA-
KBMI-KCMI. THIS FOG WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR VSBY THROUGH
EARLY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL
THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS AS ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX APPROACHES
FROM NW. TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT HAVE REINTRODUCED VCTS
STARTING 00Z FOR POTENTIAL STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW
EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY S-SW 5-10 KTS BUT
STRONG...GUSTY...VARIABLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>043-047-048.

&&

UPDATE...BAK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...ONTON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
409 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047-048-121100-
CASS-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-
PEORIA-SCHUYLER-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
409 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT MAY BE HEAVY...
INCREASING THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON THE ILLINOIS RIVER...AND PORTIONS OF
THE SANGAMON RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF PETERSBURG...AS WELL AS SALT
CREEK. HOWEVER...FLOODING ON THE MACKINAW RIVER MAY SUBSIDE LATER
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH
THE WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY...AS A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS SPREADS OVER THE REGION.

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...WITH MAXIMUM HEAT
INDEX VALUES 95 TO 100 DEGREES. THIS HEAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX
REACHING 100 TO 105 ON MONDAY.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON THE ILLINOIS RIVER...AND THE WESTERN
END OF THE SANGAMON RIVER...MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
HOWEVER...FLOODING ON THE SALT CREEK SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT...HOWEVER...REPORTS
OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS AND FLOODING WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

ILZ044>046-049>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-121100-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-
EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MACON-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PIATT-
RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SCOTT-SHELBY-VERMILION-
409 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. ALSO...SOME OF THE STORMS OVERNIGHT
MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH
THE WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY...AS A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS SPREADS OVER THE REGION.

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...WITH MAXIMUM HEAT
INDEX VALUES 95 TO 100 DEGREES. THIS HEAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX
REACHING 100 TO 105 ON MONDAY.

FLOODING ON THE EAST END OF THE SANGAMON RIVER SHOULD SUBSIDE ON
MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED EARLY THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...
REPORTS OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OR FLOODING WOULD BE
APPRECIATED.

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1023 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FORSYTH                 39.92N 88.96W
07/11/2015                   MACON              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES BLOWN DOWN

&&

EJL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1053 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     HEAVY RAIN       KNOXVILLE               40.91N 90.29W
07/11/2015  M2.15 INCH       KNOX               IL   MESONET

            MEASURED 2.15 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE 9 AM...SWOP REPORT.

&&

EJL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1105 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ASTORIA                 40.23N 90.36W
07/11/2015  M1.52 INCH       FULTON             IL   MESONET

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL TODAY...SWOP REPORT

1045 PM     HEAVY RAIN       PEORIA                  40.74N 89.61W
07/11/2015  M1.48 INCH       PEORIA             IL   MESONET

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL TODAY...RAIN HAS ENDED...SWOP REPORT

&&

EJL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1122 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NW PEORIA             40.80N 89.68W
07/11/2015  M1.43 INCH       PEORIA             IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            MEASURED 1.43 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE 7 AM.

&&

EJL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1215 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W HOOPESTON           40.47N 87.69W
07/11/2015  M1.28 INCH       VERMILION          IL   COCORAHS

            RAINFALL THE PAST 30 MINUTES

1130 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SW PEORIA             40.72N 89.64W
07/11/2015  M2.07 INCH       PEORIA             IL   MESONET

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL TODAY...SWOP REPORT

&&

EJL

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