Winter Storm Warning 5, NWS Wilmington, OH

119 
WWUS41 KILN 011454
WSWILN

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
954 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>093-OHZ077-078-011600-
/O.EXP.KILN.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-150301T1500Z/
RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-
CAMPBELL-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VERSAILLES...LAWRENCEBURG...
RISING SUN...VEVAY...CARROLLTON...WARSAW...BURLINGTON...
INDEPENDENCE...ALEXANDRIA...CINCINNATI...MILFORD
954 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP THIS MORNING AND ANY FUTURE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY RAIN...THOUGH A FEW FLAKES...OR SLEET...OR
PATCHY FREEZING RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY THROUGH ABOUT
NOON.

$$

INZ050-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>053-012300-
/O.CON.KILN.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-150302T0300Z/
WAYNE-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-
MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...KENTON...CELINA...
WAPAKONETA...GREENVILLE...SIDNEY...BELLEFONTAINE...MARYSVILLE...
DELAWARE...PIQUA...URBANA...SPRINGFIELD
954 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 7 INCHES IS EXPECTED.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
  EXPERIENCE SOME BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON...ENDING THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO 
  REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS.
ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA
FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN
EMERGENCY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE
SOURCE OF INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ILN...AS WELL AS ON OUR
FACEBOOK AND TWITTER PAGES.

&&

$$

INZ058-059-OHZ054>056-060>062-012300-
/O.CON.KILN.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-150302T0300Z/
FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-
GREENE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY...LONDON...
COLUMBUS...NEWARK...EATON...DAYTON...XENIA
954 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IS 
  EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A TRACE OF ICE.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. BREAKS IN
  THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SOME SLEET
  OR FREEZING RAIN COULD MIX IN AT TIMES. SNOW WILL END THIS
  EVENING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO REDUCED 
  VISIBILITIES AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...
SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE
PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE
CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR
FAVORITE SOURCE OF INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL
DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ILN...AS WELL AS ON
OUR FACEBOOK AND TWITTER PAGES.

&&

$$

INZ066-OHZ063>065-070>072-074-012000-
/O.CON.KILN.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-150301T2000Z/
FRANKLIN IN-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-
HOCKING-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BROOKVILLE...WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE...
CIRCLEVILLE...LANCASTER...HAMILTON...LEBANON...WILMINGTON...LOGAN
954 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS
  EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A GLAZE OF ICE.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL MIX WITH SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS
  MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE SPORADIC. ANY LINGERING
  SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW AND ICE 
  ACCUMULATIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...
SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE
PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE
CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR
FAVORITE SOURCE OF INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL
DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ILN...AS WELL AS ON
OUR FACEBOOK AND TWITTER PAGES.

&&

$$

707 
WWUS41 KILN 011933
WSWILN

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
233 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

INZ050-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>053-020300-
/O.CON.KILN.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-150302T0300Z/
WAYNE-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-
MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...KENTON...CELINA...
WAPAKONETA...GREENVILLE...SIDNEY...BELLEFONTAINE...MARYSVILLE...
DELAWARE...PIQUA...URBANA...SPRINGFIELD
233 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE
  POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
  5 TO 8 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE COMING TO
  AN END THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO 
  REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS.
ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA
FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN
EMERGENCY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE
SOURCE OF INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ILN...AS WELL AS ON OUR
FACEBOOK AND TWITTER PAGES.

&&

$$

INZ066-OHZ063>065-070>072-074-012300-
/O.EXT.KILN.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-150301T2300Z/
FRANKLIN IN-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-
HOCKING-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BROOKVILLE...WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE...
CIRCLEVILLE...LANCASTER...HAMILTON...LEBANON...WILMINGTON...LOGAN
233 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE
  POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
  2 TO 4 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE COMING TO
  AN END THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW AND ICE 
  ACCUMULATIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...
SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE
PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE
CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR
FAVORITE SOURCE OF INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL
DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ILN...AS WELL AS ON
OUR FACEBOOK AND TWITTER PAGES.

&&

$$

INZ058-059-OHZ054>056-060>062-020300-
/O.CON.KILN.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-150302T0300Z/
FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-
GREENE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY...LONDON...
COLUMBUS...NEWARK...EATON...DAYTON...XENIA
233 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE
  POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
  4 TO 6 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE COMING TO
  AN END THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO REDUCED 
  VISIBILITIES AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...
SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE
PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE
CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR
FAVORITE SOURCE OF INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL
DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ILN...AS WELL AS ON
OUR FACEBOOK AND TWITTER PAGES.

&&

$$

HATZOS

171 
WWUS41 KILN 012215
WSWILN

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
515 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

INZ050-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>053-012315-
/O.CAN.KILN.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-150302T0300Z/
WAYNE-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-
MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...KENTON...CELINA...
WAPAKONETA...GREENVILLE...SIDNEY...BELLEFONTAINE...MARYSVILLE...
DELAWARE...PIQUA...URBANA...SPRINGFIELD
515 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING.

THE THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED...AND THUS THE WINTER
STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

INZ058-059-OHZ054>056-060>062-012315-
/O.CAN.KILN.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-150302T0300Z/
FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-
GREENE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY...LONDON...
COLUMBUS...NEWARK...EATON...DAYTON...XENIA
515 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

THE THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED...AND THUS THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

INZ066-OHZ063>065-070>072-074-012315-
/O.CAN.KILN.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-150301T2300Z/
FRANKLIN IN-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-
HOCKING-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BROOKVILLE...WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE...
CIRCLEVILLE...LANCASTER...HAMILTON...LEBANON...WILMINGTON...LOGAN
515 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

THE THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED...AND THUS THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

HATZOS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
125 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY...WITH
SNOW AND RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. A STRONGER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AREA OF SNOW IS ALREADY WORKING NE ACROSS INDIANA AND WILL LIFT INTO
THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. BACKED OFF ON
THE BEGINNING OF THE SNOW BY A COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON THE RADAR
TREND. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING THAT THIS INITIAL
SHOT WILL LIFT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH LEAVING NRN KY DRY. TRENDED
THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT ALLOWED FOR THE PCPN TO FILL
IN ACROSS THE SOUTH BETWEEN 09-12Z.

TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN A LITTLE THIS EVENING AND MAY HOLD STEADY
FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY BEGINNING
TO RISE BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE ILN FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE
STEADY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING FAIRLY
MOIST. ON SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SATURATION OR NEAR-SATURATION FROM THE SURFACE ALL THE
WAY THROUGH 10KFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 0.5
TO 0.8 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND YET IT IS SNOW THAT
REMAINS THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM OF THE FORECAST.

THOUGH THE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE HIGH...OVERALL THE FORCING
INVOLVED WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND
UNFOCUSED. IT IS CLEAR THAT THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL SET UP THROUGH (OR JUST NORTH OF) THE MIDDLE OF THE ILN
FORECAST AREA...AND THAT THE EVENTUAL NORTHERNMOST EXTENT OF THE
RAIN-TO-SNOW TRANSITION WILL ALSO EXIST SOMEWHERE IN THIS
VICINITY. THE MODEL SPREAD IN THIS AREA OF TEMPERATURE TRANSITION
IS ACTUALLY NOT ALL THAT LARGE...AND THE NORTHERNMOST EXTREMES
AMONG THE SOLUTIONS ARE NOT AS FAR NORTH AS MIGHT BE EXPECTED WHEN
CONSIDERING OTHER WEATHER EVENTS OF THIS NATURE. THUS...THERE IS
CONFIDENCE THAT MIXED RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT NO
FURTHER NORTH THAN A LINE FROM ABOUT FRANKLIN COUNTY IN TO LICKING
COUNTY OH...AND THAT ANYWHERE NEAR THAT LINE WILL EXPERIENCE
MAINLY SNOW. THUS...THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
FORECAST JUST NORTH OF THAT LINE...ROUGHLY FROM RICHMOND IN TO
DELAWARE OH...WITH A SOLID SWATH OF 5 INCHES IN THE GRIDS.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL...AND THUS QPF AMOUNTS ARE SOMEWHAT
HEAVY GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING...SNOW RATIOS WILL BE TOWARD THE LOW
END OF THE SCALE. IN FACT...GUIDANCE NUMBERS FROM WPC (12:1 TO
14:1) MAY WELL BE TOO HIGH. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CONTRIBUTION FROM
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WHICH WILL BE RESIDING SOMEWHERE
AROUND 15KFT AND ABOVE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE. WHAT THIS
EVENT HAS GOING FOR IT IS DURATION...WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO FALL
ACROSS A PERIOD OF AROUND 18 HOURS. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE
SOME ISOTHERM COMPACTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ILN CWA ON
SUNDAY MORNING (ESPECIALLY IN THE 925MB-850MB LAYER)...WITH WEAK
FRONTOGENETIC SIGNATURES ON A FEW OF THE MODELS. THUS...SOME 6
INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH A LONG ENOUGH DURATION
THAT HAZARDS WORTHY OF A WARNING DO NOT SEEM LIKELY.

THE TRANSITION BETWEEN SNOW AND RAIN WILL UNDOUBTEDLY LEAD TO A
LITTLE LESS CERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...WHERE
SNOW FORECAST TOTALS RANGE FROM 4 INCHES TO 1 INCH ACROSS A
STRETCH OF ONLY 30 MILES. OF ADDITIONAL CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR ICE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THERE IS A CLEAR SIGNAL FOR A
WARM LAYER NEAR 900MB PUSHING ABOVE THE COLDER AIR AT THE
SURFACE...GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 07Z AND 13Z. HOWEVER...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS LAYER TO
BE OF A FAIRLY SMALL MAGNITUDE...AND UNSATURATED. THIS IS NOT
TERRIBLY SUPPORTIVE OF A WHOLE LOT OF FULL HYDROMETEOR
MELTING...FAVORING A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THIS SEEMS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA...WHERE A
TIER OF COUNTIES WAS ADDED TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THIS
ADDITION WAS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF SNOW AMOUNTS (AROUND AN
INCH) AND ICE POTENTIAL (PERHAPS UP TO FIVE HUNDREDTHS).5

TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK OUT IN THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME...MATCHING
THE NORTHERNMOST EXTENT OF THE RAIN-SNOW LINE. AFTER THIS...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WNW AND ALLOW COLD ADVECTION TO TAKE
OVER...QUICKLY CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO SNOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW TENTHS (WITH PERHAPS
ANOTHER INCH IN CENTRAL OHIO) WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE SNOW COMES
TO AN END ON SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
COOL FROM NW TO SE...AS SKIES ALSO BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT. IGNORING
THE RAW GFS NUMBERS...SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER
20S.

ON MONDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE. WARM...MOIST ASCENT WILL
INCREASE TO OUR WEST DURING THE EVENING AND WILL SHIFT
EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. THUS...AS PCPN
INITIALLY BEGINS AND BEFORE SATURATION...SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
WILL OCCUR. AS SATURATION INCREASES...AND MAX TEMPS ALOFT
INCREASE...MORE AND MORE OF THE REGION WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ALOFT
AND IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD CHANGE
THE WINTRY PCPN TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. PRELIMINARY AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF ICING AND LESS THAN AN INCH
OF SNOW/SLEET.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A MID LEVEL S/WV WILL EJECT NE FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS...A FAIRLY STRONG LLJ OF 60 TO 70
KNOTS ALONG WITH A DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL PUMP ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PWATS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY.  THESE VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1.20 TO 1.40 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 300
PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. THIS SCENARIO WILL BRING RAIN
TO THE REGION...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY. THERE WILL BE A CONCERN
FOR FLOODING GIVEN MOIST CONDITIONS AND SNOW PACK/STORED SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT FROM SUNDAYS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MOST STREAMS/RIVERS ARE
RUNNING LOW ATTM...SNOW MELT AND MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN
RAPID RISES. IN ADDITION...THE PROLONGED COLD HAS ALLOWED ICE TO
FORM ON MANY RIVERS...CREEKS AND STREAMS...SOME THICK IN SPOTS.
WATER FLOWING INTO FAIRLY ICE COVERED BASINS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
DRAINING WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING AND/OR ICE JAMS. ANOTHER
CONCERN...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ATTM...WILL BE WHETHER A LOW
TOPPED QLCS (MAYBE A LINE OF FOCUSED SHOWERS WITH LITTLE TO NO
THUNDER) GETS GOING ALONG THE FRONT IN A REGIME OF HIGH SHEAR/LOW
CAPE ALONG WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. TO ADD TO THE
COMPLEXITY...WHERE SNOW COVER CAN HOLD ON...IT MAY ADD A SHALLOW
STABLE LAYER TO ANY QLCS DEVELOPMENT. ATTM...THE BEST CHANCE FOR A
POTENTIAL QLCS TO HAVE AN AFFECT SEEMS MORE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WILL OCCUR
TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF FRONT AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S AND
50S. A FEW LOWER 60S MAY OCCUR IN OUR FAR SE COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION THE WINTRY AND FLOOD THREATS IN THE HWO. WILL HOLD OFF ON
THE MENTION OF THE QLCS POTENTIAL ATTM. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A FEW MORE
RUNS AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS.

A COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL ENERGY/SFC LOW WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED EVENTUALLY BY AN ARCTIC FRONT. MODELS
ARE NOW HEDGING ON WHETHER OR NOT ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A SECONDARY SURGE OF
PRECIPITATION NORTH INTO OUR REGION LATER ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT
SOME CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR A HIGHER
CHANCE FOR PCPN FOR POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. PCPN
IN THE CAA WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE
ON SECONDARY SURGE...PINPOINTING POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS ATTM WOULD NOT
BE PRUDENT.

THE ENTIRE SYSTEM FINALLY GETS SHUNTED FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR
PRECIPITATION TO END WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS BUT A RETURN TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT APPEARS MOISTURE STARVED.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY BUT
WILL STILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
ON SUNDAY. SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN AT TIMES LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND THROUGH THE DAYTIME MORNING HOURS AT KCVG AND KLUK.
PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT DURING
THIS TIME SOME DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL AREA TAF SITES
EXCEPT FOR KDAY. KDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE
EVENT. DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS A BAND OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES. AFTER THIS
MOVES THROUGH THE TAF SITES EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF. VSBYS
WILL BE REDUCED FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION.
CIGS WILL RANGE FROM THE GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS LIKELY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ063>065-070>072-077.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ078.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     KYZ089>093.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ050-058-059.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     INZ066-073-074.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...NOVAK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
423 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062-012130-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-
UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-
PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-
423 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM
EST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL START AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
BECOMING RAIN. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH A MELTING SNOW
PACK WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FLOODING DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

INZ066-073-074-OHZ063>065-070>072-077-012130-
FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-
WARREN-CLINTON-HAMILTON-
423 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM
EST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...CENTRAL
OHIO AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL START AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
BECOMING RAIN. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH A MELTING SNOW
PACK WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FLOODING DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

INZ075-080-KYZ089>093-OHZ078-012130-
OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-CLERMONT-
423 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL START AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
BECOMING RAIN. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH A MELTING SNOW PACK
WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FLOODING DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

KYZ094>100-OHZ073-074-079>082-088-012130-
OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-ROSS-HOCKING-
BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
423 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
UNDER AN INCH...WITH TRACE AMOUNTS OF ICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL START AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
BECOMING RAIN. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH A MELTING SNOW
PACK WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FLOODING DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

HATZOS/HICKMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
338 AM EST SUN MAR 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 AM     SNOW             2 SSE WILMINGTON        39.42N  83.82W
03/01/2015  M0.8 INCH        CLINTON            OH   NWS OFFICE

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILN1501603

NOVAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
341 AM EST SUN MAR 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 AM     SNOW             WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE  39.54N  83.43W
03/01/2015  M1.5 INCH        FAYETTE            OH   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILN1501604

NOVAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
342 AM EST SUN MAR 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 AM     SNOW             TROTWOOD                39.80N  84.30W
03/01/2015  E2.0 INCH        MONTGOMERY         OH   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILN1501605

NOVAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
344 AM EST SUN MAR 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 AM     SNOW             3 E MIAMISBURG          39.64N  84.22W
03/01/2015  E1.0 INCH        MONTGOMERY         OH   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILN1501606

NOVAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
402 AM EST SUN MAR 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0346 AM     SNOW             1 WSW WEST UNION        38.79N  83.56W
03/01/2015  M0.5 INCH        ADAMS              OH   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILN1501607

NOVAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
403 AM EST SUN MAR 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 AM     SNOW             3 NW CHILLICOTHE        39.37N  83.02W
03/01/2015  M0.5 INCH        ROSS               OH   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILN1501609

NOVAK