Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
417 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES...WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AND MORE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR THE OHIO
VALLEY...WITH A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ON THE EDGE
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE. HOWEVER...THIS PATTERN WILL FINALLY
BREAK DOWN IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THE FIRST SIGN OF THIS IS
OCCURRING TODAY. AS STRONG (AND DRIER) SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH
INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. IN THE REGIME AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY...THERE IS SOME GENERAL CONVERGENCE HEADING INTO THE
CWA...THOUGH NOTHING TO SUPPORT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF LARGE-SCALE
ORGANIZATION. EITHER WAY...THE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY THAT
HAS DEVELOPED (1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE) WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT...SHIFTING GENERALLY WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE AFTERNOON STARTED OFF QUICKLY...AS SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT
IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH SHEAR THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON WAS ABLE TO BECOME
ORGANIZED...WITH SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES AND EVEN SOME STORM
SPLITS. THE KILN VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS THAT WESTERLY FLOW OF 40
KNOTS IS HELPING TO PROVIDE RESPECTABLE SHEAR THROUGH THE 0-3KM
LAYER...THOUGH WITH A MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL ORIENTATION. THIS MAY
VERY WELL OCCUR AGAIN AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...THOUGH IT IS
LIKELY THAT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ONLY REALLY BE POSSIBLE
EARLY IN THE LIFECYCLE OF THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS. WITH
TIME...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME FORWARD PROPAGATING
STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS...PRECIPITATION WILL SIMPLY BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AND LESS FOCUSED. THERE WILL REMAIN SOME CONCERN
ABOUT HEAVY OR PERSISTENT RAINFALL...THOUGH THIS SEEMS MORE LIKELY
TO BE FOCUSED IN LOCATIONS SOUTH OF WHERE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED.

PRECIPITATION TRENDS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A FAIRLY WET FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL ARE GOING TO BE MOVING VERY
SLOWLY...IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SOON SHUNT OFF FROM
THE REMNANTS IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WORKING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY
TO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH MOTIONS GENERALLY TOWARD THE ENE. THERE IS STILL A LOT
OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON EXACTLY HOW THIS WILL SET UP...AND IF
THERE WILL BE A CONTRIBUTION FROM A LOW-LEVEL JET. WHAT APPEARS
CERTAIN IS THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT...WITH A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN. WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY IN A MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE...AND WEAK WIND FLOW
THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE...THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW.

ANOTHER BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HEAVIER RAINS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE REMNANTS OF BILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY WILL START TO WASH OUT SATURDAY AS
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL MOVES INTO THE AREA. PWATS
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR 2.25" AND OMEGA VALUES ARE
SHOWING A BULLS EYE JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE ALSO RATHER IMPRESSIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VALUES ON BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING GREATER THAN 30 KTS IN PLACES. TOWARDS
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS 0- 3 KM SRH VALUES ARE OVER 200 IN PLACES AS
WELL. THESE VALUES WOULD SUPPORT SOME STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING
SEVERE. EXTREMELY HIGH PWAT VALUES WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. DUE TO THE MENTIONED ABOVE SPC HAS PART OF THE
AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3 AND WPC ALSO HAS PART OF THE AREA
IN SLIGHT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

ON SUNDAY THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL PASS EAST OF US WITH MOST OF
THE AREA REMAINING ON THE DIVERGENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AT THE
SAME TIME A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
AREA. CAPE VALUES REMAIN VERY IMPRESSIVE ON THE GFS FOR SUNDAY. SOME
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING VALUES ABOVE 3000 J/KG. THERE IS ALSO
SOME VERY WARM 850 TEMPERATURES FORECASTED FOR SUNDAY. THE GFS IS
SHOWING VALUES ABOVE 20 DEGREES C. THIS MEANS THAT STORMS WILL BE
FIGHTING A CAP SUNDAY. LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE CAP ARE GOOD AS WELL (7
- 8 DEGREES C/KM). ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG TO SEVERE.

ON MONDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH STRONG
INSTABILITY VALUES AGAIN FORECASTED. THE GFS IS SHOWING VALUES
AROUND 2000 J/KG. 0 - 6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO
BE AROUND 40 KTS. SFC DELTA THETA-E VALUES ARE ALSO AROUND -30. HIGH
INSTABILITY... PWATS VALUES AROUND 1.8"... AND GOOD FLOW ALL POINT
TO ANOTHER DAY OF POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING A FRONT DIVING SOUTH AND
STALLING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CWA. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST UNITED STATES WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHEAST.
LATEST SUITE OF MODEL RUNS SHOW THE RIDGE BEING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN IN THE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SE ACRS
THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS ACRS KCVG/KLUK
WHERE BEST INSTBY EXISTS. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS HERE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN HEAVY RAIN DOWNPOURS.

FURTHER NORTH HAVE OPTED FOR VCTS MENTION DUE TO MORE LIMITED
COVERAGE.

CHANCE OF STORMS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH VERY LATE TONIGHT AND WASH OUT OVER CENTRAL
OHIO. HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KDAY/KCMH/KLCK.

AT THE SAME TIME MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BILL WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW LATE TONIGHT. HAVE MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP WITH A MENTION OF VCTS TOWARD SUNRISE OVER THE SW TAF
SITES. HAVE LIMITED MENTION TO VCSH ACRS THE NRN TAF SITES DUE TO
LIMITED INSTBY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTN. MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
439 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-190845-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
439 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. MORE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. FLOODING THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
TIME THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND PRECIPITATION VALUES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
553 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0437 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW EATON             39.74N 84.67W
06/18/2015                   PREBLE             OH   AMATEUR RADIO

            12 POWER POLES SNAPPED ALONG STATE ROUTE 122. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

HATZOS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
554 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

OHZ026-035-043-044-182230-
AUGLAIZE OH-HARDIN OH-LOGAN OH-SHELBY OH-
554 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN SHELBY...
NORTHWESTERN LOGAN...WESTERN HARDIN AND AUGLAIZE COUNTIES THROUGH 630
PM EDT...

AT 551 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF KOSSUTH TO STATE ROUTE 116 AT
STATE ROUTE 197 TO MCCARTYVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 45 MPH...

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...BOTKINS...WAPAKONETA...
CRIDERSVILLE...RUSSELLS POINT...BELLEFONTAINE AND ADA.

ALSO...NEW KNOXVILLE...KOSSUTH...MOULTON...MCCARTYVILLE...
KETTLERSVILLE...SWANDERS...BUCKLAND...ANNA...PORT JEFFERSON AND
FRYBURG ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 4068 8375 4035 8370 4031 8431 4058 8441
      4069 8442 4069 8423 4066 8422 4066 8411
      4065 8410 4065 8389 4082 8389 4082 8376

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
603 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N EATON               39.76N 84.63W
06/18/2015  M53.00 MPH       PREBLE             OH   PUBLIC

0500 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 ESE LEWISBURG         39.84N 84.51W
06/18/2015  M50.00 MPH       PREBLE             OH   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

&&

HATZOS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
608 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNW DOWNTOWN DAYTON   39.81N 84.22W
06/18/2015                   MONTGOMERY         OH   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE LIMB DOWN.

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
614 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N FAIRBORN            39.81N 84.02W
06/18/2015                   GREENE             OH   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS DOWN, INCLUDING A LIMB THROUGH A CAR
            WINDOW. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

KC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
621 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

OHZ063>065-073-074-080-082-182245-
FAIRFIELD OH-FAYETTE OH-HOCKING OH-PICKAWAY OH-PIKE OH-ROSS OH-
HIGHLAND OH-
621 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN HIGHLAND...ROSS...
NORTHEASTERN PIKE...SOUTHERN PICKAWAY...WESTERN HOCKING...EASTERN
FAYETTE AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN FAIRFIELD COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM
EDT...

AT 619 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PLANO...
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...
PEA SIZE HAIL...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...BAINBRIDGE...
CIRCLEVILLE...CHILLICOTHE...KINGSTON...PIKETON...WAVERLY AND HOCKING
HILLS STATE PARK.

ALSO...AUSTIN...LATTAVILLE...CLARKSBURG...FRANKFORT...WILLIAMSPORT...
PIKE LAKE...BOURNEVILLE...KNOCKEMSTIFF...SUMMITHILL AND BUCHANAN ARE
NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3939 8241 3939 8250 3937 8252 3936 8274
      3918 8276 3916 8278 3895 8281 3927 8360
      3966 8338 3953 8236