Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
748 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE FA
THIS EVENING. DROPPED THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH AS THE SVR THREAT
HAS MOVED THROUGH THAT AREA. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SVR THREAT
CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE TAPERING OFF. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE SHORT TERM. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA. AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
TAPER OFF ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME
LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
80S AGAIN FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE. A HUMID AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS CIRCULATING AROUND A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY MAINLY OVER
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN A FEW
MORE THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY AIDED BY COOLING ALOFT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO ERODE.

ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD TO ILN BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHEN
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH.

WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. READINGS IN
THE 70S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

MOIST SWRLY FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY. AN
EMBEDDED S/W PIVOTING THRU REGION COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTBY LED
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS LATE THIS AFTN. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE COMING TO AN END.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT. HAVE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN
FOG WITH IFR AT KLUK AND IFR CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT
ALL TAF LOCATIONS. THE FOG/STATUS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NW. AT THIS TIME HAVE A
MENTION OF VCTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
701 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

KYZ097>100-OHZ045-046-054>056-063>065-073-074-079>082-088-272315-
BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-
LICKING-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-ROSS-HOCKING-BROWN-HIGHLAND-
ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
701 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MOST
FAVORABLE TIMING FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE BEFORE 9PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.  SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>096-OHZ026-034-035-042>044-
051>053-060>062-070>072-077-078-272315-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-
CLARK-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-HAMILTON-
CLERMONT-
701 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...MIAMI VALLEY OF
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
756 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

KYZ099-100-OHZ079-081-270030-
LEWIS KY-MASON KY-ADAMS OH-BROWN OH-
756 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN BROWN...ADAMS...
MASON AND NORTHWESTERN LEWIS COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM EDT...

AT 754 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LEWISBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 50 MPH...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...TOLLESBORO...
MAYSVILLE...MANCHESTER...WEST UNION AND SEAMAN.

ALSO...SOMO...RECTORVILLE...GLEN SPRINGS...MORANBURG...ABERDEEN...
RIBOLT...HERRON HILL...CHARTERS...TRINITY AND BRADYSVILLE ARE NEAR
THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3843 8358 3848 8359 3852 8364 3850 8371
      3847 8381 3849 8392 3899 8371 3889 8327
      3881 8326 3841 8353

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
757 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FELICITY                38.84N 84.10W
05/26/2015                   CLERMONT           OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON 133 AND 756.

&&

ANOVAK

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