Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
505 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INITIAL WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL VORT MAX
IS SHIFTING OFF TO OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS WE GET ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS...EXPECT AT LEAST SOME LULL IN THE PCPN THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES
JUST TO OUR SOUTH HAVE PUSHED WELL INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON. AS
A RESULT...SOME GOOD SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE JUST TO
OUR SOUTH AND THIS WILL LIKELY WORK UP INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WE ARE SEEING SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND THINK SOME OF THIS
COULD MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN FA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. AS A RESULT...WILL PLAN ON KEEPING SVR WATCH #40 UP IN
OUR AREA AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO SEE HOW THINGS
PROGRESS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR
AREA. SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY WE WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT.
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A WEAKENING TREND IN THE STORMS AS THEY WORK
THEIR WAY EAST TOWARD OUR AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BOTH 0-1 KM AND
0-3 KM SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS TO
MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA ASSUMING WE ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN
ENOUGH INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A
POSSIBILITY AS PWS REMAIN IN THE 1.25 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH FFA THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WE COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR
EAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. IN SOME CAA...EXPECT HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL
PIVOT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WORKING DOWN INTO OUR AREA.
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED...BUT SUPPOSE WE COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY. TEMPS COULD DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S BOTH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND/OR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. &&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST SUNDAY ALLOWING CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE TO START THEIR RETURN TO THE AREA. ON MONDAY ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH TO THE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BRINGING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MOISTURE LEVELS CLIMB TO NEAR 1.40" ON THE GFS WITH THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO THE NORTH (AS SUPPORTED BY OMEGA FIELD).
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE VALUES STILL LOOK GOOD ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY MOVE
INTO THE AREA ALLOWING FOR TUESDAY TO DRY OUT A BIT. WEDNESDAY
MORNING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING THE
CHANCE OF RAIN BACK TO THE AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS
WILL KEEP THE PATTERN ACTIVE THROUGH THURSDAY AS MULTIPLE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
IN WARM SECTOR THIS AFTN. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. HAVE CIGS AND VSBYS DROPPING INTO MVFR
CATEGORY IN THESE STORMS BUT IF A STRONG CORE GOES OVER ANY
AIRPORT THEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED. EXPECT A GENERAL LULL
IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT.
A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT IN
LOW LEVEL CAA

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 26 KTS THIS AFTN. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TOWARDS 00Z WITH A LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 28 KTS FRIDAY.
.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
413 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-101200-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
413 PM EDT THU APR 9 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN
ADDITION...SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

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