Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
142 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE DISSIPATING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...AND
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY
WARM FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WARM...MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS SIMILAR TO THAT OF
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PUSH UP INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH GOOD INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL
FORCING SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW
ALOFT...ANY STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW MOVING...LEADING TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE THIS EVENING...LEAVING
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHEAR AND EVENTUALLY LOSE ITS
IDENTITY BY SATURDAY EVENING AS MID LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD
INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST AND EAST. WE SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DAY
FOR A THREAT OF A SHOWER/STORM DURING PEAK HEATING...BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD  BE LESS THAN TODAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR.

FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS INDICATE THAT MID
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD AND EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION THEN INTO NEW ENGLAND. INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH A LITTLE BIT DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST SHOULD
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S
TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE FA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE DRY HOWEVER A FEW STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

ON WEDNESDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.  THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FEATURE MOVES OUT
AND WHETHER OR NOT A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE
FRONT AND LINGERS PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION.

THE ECMWF FAVORS THE SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. DECIDED TO LINGER THE PRECIPITATION LONGER THAN THE GFS
HOWEVER NOT AS LONG AS THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION AROUND THE REGION AND ON THURSDAY
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP ACROSS
THE AREA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE CONTINUED WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. EXPECT TO SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS WE CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE. TOUGH TO TIME
THE STORMS IN TO ANY OF THE TAF SITES THOUGH SO WILL STICK WITH
THE TREND OF COVERING THE THREAT WITH A VCTS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND CU TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR BR/FG RESTRICTIONS LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AT KLUK. WITH THE SAME AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
403 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
080-082-050900-
WAYNE-FAYETTE-UNION-FRANKLIN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-
LOGAN-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-LICKING-PREBLE-
MONTGOMERY-GREENE-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-
HOCKING-HIGHLAND-PIKE-
403 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR INDIANA...CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PENNY SIZED
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MILES AN HOUR. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WHICH COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING.
STORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ077>079-081-088-050900-
RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-
CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HAMILTON-
CLERMONT-BROWN-ADAMS-SCIOTO-
403 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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