Severe Thunderstorm Warning 143, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
754 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK
INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LINGERING STORMS ARE FIRING IN A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY BEHIND THE
LARGE SWATH OF STORMS THAT WERE OVER THE REGION EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR PORTSMOUTH AND WEST OF
COLUMBUS AND HAVE A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK. MORE STORMS UPSTREAM OF
THE REGION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FIRE ON THE BOUNDARY THAT
EXISTS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. THE UPSTREAM
STORMS ARE CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF INDIANAPOLIS AND MAY PERSIST AND
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO LATE THIS
EVENING...THEN DIVE SOUTHWARD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STILL IN A
STATE OF FLUX WITH HOW THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION EVOLVES OVERNIGHT
BUT FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN HEAVILY TOWARDS THE HRRR MODEL.

IF THE LINE DEVELOPS...THE OVERNIGHT THREAT WILL PRIMARILY BE A
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AND COULD CONTAIN SOME DAMAGING WINDS IN
SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL BE A LULL OR A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE
MORNING DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FA. A DISTURBANCE WILL
WORK THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP IN AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE A THREAT AND
HAVE ADDED SEVERE MENTION INTO THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE A THREAT AS WELL AND HAVE HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN THE
FORECAST...HWO...AND HAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OUT ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GET QUITE WARM ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN ADDITION DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE NEAR 70.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NEAR 100 ACROSS EXTREME SW PORTIONS OF THE
FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH TUESDAY/S SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND RAPIDLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT ATOP BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. IT APPEARS WE/LL ACTUALLY GET A COUPLE OF
DAYS WITHOUT THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THOUGH IT
WOULDN/T BE TOO MUCH OF A SURPRISE IF A LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPED OVER
CENTRAL OHIO ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE EJECTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL BE THE COOL DAYS OF THE
WEEK...WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY CLIMBING BY FRIDAY AS THE RETURN FLOW
BEGINS TO SET UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT
SLIDES INTO THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY.

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT  A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY...DRAGGING A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON - BUT THE BULK
OF THE DAY LOOKS DRY AS FORCING IS WEAK. THE WEAK LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH ILL-DEFINED SURFACE FEATURES
WASHING OUT A BIT. TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY BE WARMER THAN WE/VE SEEN
FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY SOME PRETTY STEAMY AIR COMES WITH IT - SO IT
WILL BE MUGGY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
TROUGHING TRIES TO REASSERT ITSELF OVER THE ERN SEABOARD...AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SEEMS ENOUGH
THERE WITH THE WARM/MUGGY AIR THAT LOOSELY ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE TAF SITES WILL BRING REDUCED
VSBYS...CIGS...WIND GUSTS...AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER THIS MOVES THROUGH THERE WILL BE A
LULL AT TAF SITES EXCEPT KCVG AND KLUK WHERE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.

OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...

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