Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
515 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THEN A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL SWING EAST THROUGH KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LINE OF CONVECTION IS ARCING FROM EXTREME SE INDIANA ACROSS NRN
KENTUCKY AND ACROSS TO SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOP BACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST
IN SRN INDIANA. 18Z HRRR HAD THE CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BUBBLE
UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND POSSIBLY DRIFTING INTO THE FA.
IN ADDITION SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL MOVE IN FROM NW INDIANA
INTO THE WEST CENTRAL COUNTIES.

OVERALL...CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN BY MIDNIGHT. AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN.

LOWS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE NW...AND THE LOWER
60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THE NORTH DRY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE STALLED...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACT TO HELP
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS KENTUCKY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IT WILL SWING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY.
AHEAD OF IT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND WILL AFFECT
KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN OHIO. KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN KY
INTO SRN OHIO AS THE SYSTEM SLIPS BY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH RESIDING OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE REGION. LACK OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION UNTIL A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MAY DEVELOP MAINLY IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF A
STALLED BOUNDARY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY WHEN A RATHER LARGE SURGE OF MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
ON A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION
MONDAY WHEN MODELS INDICATE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY.

WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE 500 MB HEIGHTS AND THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS
AND PRECIP COUPLED WITH A LACK OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 80 EACH DAY...COMPARED TO NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH THE END OF DAYTIME HEATING. BKN VFR TO
OCCASIONALLY MVFR CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING WITH FOG
DEVELOPING TOWARDS DAYBREAK ALONG WITH SOME LIFR CIGS AT KCVG/KLUK
AND POSSIBLY KILN.

SKIES SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER TOMORROW MORNING IN A LESS FAVORABLE
AIRMASS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FRANKS/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...FRANKS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
801 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-011215-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
801 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH A CHANCE FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
458 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

KYZ095>097-302130-
PENDLETON KY-BRACKEN KY-GRANT KY-
458 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL GRANT...SOUTHWESTERN
BRACKEN AND SOUTHERN PENDLETON COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

AT 456 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
WILLIAMSTOWN LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...
ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...FALMOUTH.

ALSO...KNOXVILLE...CAMP NORTHWARD...GOFORTH...MARCUS...GENE SNYDER
AIRPORT...MORGAN...BROWNING CORNER...MCKINNEYSBURG...NEAVE AND
MILFORD ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3863 8469 3877 8458 3866 8412 3855 8417
      3855 8421 3856 8422 3858 8421 3856 8438
      3856 8441 3853 8443 3853 8446

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
503 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

OHZ034-035-302145-
AUGLAIZE OH-MERCER OH-
503 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MERCER AND NORTHWESTERN
AUGLAIZE COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

AT 501 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TAMA...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...
ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...CELINA AND ST. MARYS.

ALSO...TAMA...MENDON...NEPTUNE...BULKHEAD...KOSSUTH AND MONTEZUMA ARE
NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. WATER WILL
POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

LAT...LON 4065 8430 4043 8445 4060 8479 4074 8470
      4073 8460

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
515 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0151 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NNE NEW MARION          39.01N 85.36W
06/30/2015                   RIPLEY             IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE LARGE TREE BRANCHES DOWN NEAR THE NEW MARION
            VOLUNTEER FIRE DEPT.

&&

KC

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