River Flood Warning 24, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
708 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL WORK INTO THE AREA
ON SATURDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE ON HOW HEAVY THE RAINFALL WILL BE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THIS MORNING. HAVE SOME
CONCERN WITH A BAND OF PRECIPITATION SETTING NEAR AND NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY. THIS IS ALREADY STARTING TO BE EVIDENT ON RADAR
WITH A BAND SETTING UP IN ILLINOIS AND INTO INDIANA.

SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR WITH MORE THUNDER EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. THERE IS ALSO AN
ISOLATED SEVERE RISK ACROSS THIS AREA WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE PRIMARY THREAT.

DECIDED TO GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA TO ACCOUNT FOR LOWER FFG VALUES AND ALSO TO ACCOUNT FOR
WEST TO EAST BAND SETTING UP OVER THE AREA. RAINFALL VALUES ACROSS
THE AREA OF AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE WHAT
COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WILL
LIMIT TEMPERATURES TODAY. WENT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING LEAVING
MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN PLACE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS. WILL HIGHLIGHT
THIS IN THE HWO.

ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY. THE GREATER COVERAGE IN
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA.

WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL IMPACTING THE AREA ON SATURDAY EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THIS RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. IN ADDITION GUSTY WINDS AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. HAVE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL MENTIONED IN
THE HWO. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE AREA BRIEFLY
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON SUNDAY... LOWER PWAT AIR THEN FILTERS IN BEHIND A WEAK FRONT.
THE EURO AND GFS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HERE. THE EURO FORMS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST THEN MOVES IT FURTHER EAST TOWARDS US
BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS SLOWER BUILDING THE
RIDGE IN. BOTH SOLUTIONS SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE TERMINALS
AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BUT SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER WELL THROUGH THE
DAY. HAVE EVENTUALLY TAPERED PRECIPITATION OFF TO VCSH ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF IMPACTING THE TAF SITES. WITH THE
PRECIPITATION THE CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR FROM KDAY TO
KCMH/KLCK AND MVFR ELSEWHERE. WHERE IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING THEY
WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. OTHER
SITES SHOULD SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE LATE IN THE DAY WITH ONLY HIGHER
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MIST/FOG TO
DEVELOP WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY THURSDAY
MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-042>046-051>056-065.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
406 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-065-180815-
HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-FAIRFIELD-
406 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY
OF OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT PRECIPITATION VALUES TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ060>064-070>074-077>082-
088-180815-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-
FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-
CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
406 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO
AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING ISSUES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT PRECIPITATION VALUES TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND ON
THURSDAY.

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