Small Craft Advisory 43, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
721 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM THURSDAY...THUS FAR CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. APPEARS THE MARGINAL MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED INSTABILITY ARE HELPING TO PREVENT ANY
DEEPER CONVECTION. FARTHER SOUTH...WHERE ML CAPE HAS EXCEEDED 2000
J/KG...STORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH PINNED CLOSE TO THE COAST. STORMS MAY TRY AND SPREAD NORTH
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BUT FOR THE TIME BEING WILL FIND THE MID LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE. THERE IS ALSO SOME POST WAVE
SUBSIDENCE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SOMETHING WHICH HANGS
AROUND INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO WITHOUT MID LEVEL SUPPORT
NOT SURE A LOT OF DEEPER CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND
MAINTAIN ITSELF. BEST CHANCES APPEARS TO BE INLAND AS THE STORMS
DOWNSTREAM...CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN GA/WESTERN SC...MOVE INTO THE
REGION. CURRENT TIMING HAS THIS ACTIVITY REACHING THE AREA IN THE
4PM TO 6PM TIME FRAME.

THINK BETTER EVENT WILL BE LATE TONIGHT. THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. HOWEVER THERE IS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE
AREA AS THE PERIOD ENDS. IF AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IS LIMITED THIS
WAVE WOULD HAVE SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE
TO TAP INTO. IN FACT THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DEPICTS LIMITED PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING WITH AN INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION
GIVEN RECENT RADAR TRENDS COMBINED WITH 12Z GUIDANCE. WORTH NOTING
THAT EITHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WOULD HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...THOUGH THE RISK REMAINS QUITE
LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY OVERNIGHT WITH A LOT DEPENDING ON HOW
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PLAYS OUT.
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A BROADLY CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WILL THE BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND THERMAL
TROUGH PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. TO OUR NORTH A FRONT WILL REMAIN
STALLED ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. COMBINE THESE FACTORS WITH A VERY
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE USUAL SUSPECTS
WILL BE IN PLAY AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION GOES...DIURNAL
HEATING...THE SEA BREEZE FRONT...THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH...OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THIS LATTER
FACTOR WILL BRING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CYCLE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. EXACT TIMING OF THESE UPPER FEATURES IS...AS ALWAYS...AN
IFFY PROPOSITION...BUT A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SHOWS ONE SUCH
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...IN GENERAL...COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN
IN A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH. THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
WILL PUSH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY MAY NEVER REACH INTO
OUR LOCAL AREA IT MAY ACT TO SHIFT LEE SIDE TROUGH FARTHER EAST.
THEREFORE SHOULD SEE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOL SOUTH
AND EAST OF THIS FRONT IN WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL ACT TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. THE GFS ACTUALLY SHOWS A
BROAD CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
MONDAY WHICH SEEMS TO OPEN UP BY TUES AND FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT BY TUES INTO WED BUT LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL STILL
REMAIN ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS AND MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TO FOLLOW BY THURS. OVERALL...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN
WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS AND THE SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGES
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WILL WILL MAKE THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE EACH DAY IN TERMS OF BEHAVIOR OF SEA BREEZE
FRONT AND PIEDMONT TROUGH AND OVERALL POTENTIAL AND FOCUS OF
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

LATEST RADAR DEPICTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...CURRENTLY CREATING MVFR AT KFLO. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING...DECREASING IN STRENGTH AS WE LOOSE DAYTIME HEATING.
WILL MAINLY SEE VCSH/-SHRA FOR KLBT...WHILE THE COASTAL TERMINALS
COULD SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15
KTS AND GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS. ANTICIPATE VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH VCSH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS. ON
FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST...WITH SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS
TODAY WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KT. GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP
A BIT THIS EVENING...PUSHING SPEEDS CLOSE TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH SEAS...CURRENTLY RUNNING 3 TO 4 FT...TO 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS
OUTER EDGES OF ALL ZONES EXCEPT AMZ256 WHERE WIND COMPONENT WILL
BE MORE OFFSHORE. AS SUCH THE SCA CONTINUES UNALTERED STARTING
THIS EVENING THROUGH ROUGHLY DAYBREAK FRI.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...BERMUDA HIGH/INLAND TROUGH PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...CONTINUING A SW FLOW IN THE 15 TO
20 KT RANGE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILD
INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAY SEE THE
GRADIENT GET PINCHED AT TIMES AS LEE SIDE TROUGH MIGRATES CLOSER
TO THE COAST OR GETS ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...BUT
OVERALL EXPECT A WEAKENING SFC FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
WILL SPIKE UP AND BACK SLIGHTLY IN SEA BREEZE NEAR SHORE EACH
AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT WINDS MAINLY 10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING OUT 2 TO 4 FT BUT
DROPPING DOWN TO 3 FT OR LESS MON THROUGH TUES. A LONGER PERIOD SE
SWELL UP TO 9 SEC WILL DOMINATE COME SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHORTER
PERIOD WIND WAVES DIMINISH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254.

&&

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
402 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109-032015-
ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-INLAND NEW HANOVER-
INLAND BRUNSWICK-
402 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED.

NCZ106-108-032015-
COASTAL PENDER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-
402 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
   BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED.

SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055-032015-
MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY-
INLAND GEORGETOWN-
402 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 385 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUIRED.

SCZ056-032015-
COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
402 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 385 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT.
   MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUIRED.

SCZ054-032015-
COASTAL HORRY-
402 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 385 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
   BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUIRED.

NCZ110-032015-
COASTAL BRUNSWICK-
402 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED.

AMZ256-032015-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
402 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED.

AMZ250-252-254-032015-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
402 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED.

27