Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
312 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL OSCILLATE ACROSS THE COAST INTO THURSDAY WHILE
GRADUALLY LOSING IDENTITY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO
THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION HAS YET TO EVOLVE AS ROBUSTLY
AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT STILL APPEARS TO
BE RIPE FOR TSTMS THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT.

STATIONARY FRONT ALIGNED VERY NEAR THE COAST IS SLOWLY BEING
ABSORBED/COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZE WHICH IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP. THIS LATE START TO HEATING IS DUE TO THE PRONOUNCED CLOUD
COVER FROM THIS MORNING (POST FRONTAL STRATUS AND ANVIL DEBRIS) THAT
ONLY RECENTLY ERODED. WHILE HEATING HAS BEEN SLOW...IT IS STILL VERY
UNSTABLE OUTSIDE WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING 2000-3000 J/KG OF
SBCAPE ALONG THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THIS IS HIGHLY UNSTABLE...SO ANY
UPDRAFTS FORCED BY SURFACE BASED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE...FRONT...OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES...ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO RISE QUICKLY INTO TSTMS. ADDITIONALLY...A SHORTWAVE
EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY LIFTING NE FROM THE GULF COAST WILL COMBINE
WITH ENHANCING DIFFLUENCE AT 300 MB TO PROVIDE UPPER SUPPORT. IN
OTHER WORDS...ALL SIGNS STILL POINT TO CONVECTION BLOSSOMING THIS
EVENING...AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE...WHILE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS EARLIER
STILL SHOWS SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HAVE TRIMMED POP BACK TO HIGH CHC FROM THE EARLIER
LIKELY...BUT MANY PLACES STILL FACE THE RISK OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
WITH ISOLATED FLOODING...SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING...AND MAYBE AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST.

POP WILL WANE SLOWLY AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT THE
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER FEATURES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MAINTAIN
CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH IN A WEAKER AND
LESS WIDESPREAD FASHION.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL SLOWLY AS CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS EAST OF
THE FRONT MAINTAIN A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. A SIGNIFICANT TEMP
GRADIENT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CWA FOR MINS...DROPPING TO AROUND 69
WELL INLAND...BUT STAYING AS WARM AS 75 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM WEDNESDAY...LOCAL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL INTERIOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A WAVERING BUT DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE LAND-SEA INTERFACE. TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN DEEPEST OFFSHORE BUT RICH ENOUGH TO SERVE AS
FUEL IN LATE AUGUST HEATING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. EXPECTATION
OF SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE MAY VERY WELL CO-MINGLE WITH THE
DETERIORATING FRONT TO ADD ADDITIONAL UPDRAFT FOCUS BY THE
AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS. TIME HEIGHT DEPICTIONS OF RH IN THE COLUMN
SUGGEST GRADUAL DRYING AND ANTICYCLONIC TURNING OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE SE FRIDAY...AND COULD REDUCE
POP POTENTIAL FRIDAY COMPARED TO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES OF MAX/MIN
WILL HOLD CLOSE TO NORMALS FOR LATE AUGUST BOTH DAYS...ALTHOUGH
CLOUD COVER AND WEAK POST FRONTAL AIR MAY RESULT IN MIDDLE 80S
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM WEDNESDAY...BY SATURDAY ERIKA...OR REMNANTS OF...MAY
BE MOVING INTO THE FAR EASTERN BAHAMAS. CURRENT MODEL SPREADS BY
DAY 5 MONDAY BECOME HIGHLY DIVERGENT...PLACING ERIKA ANYWHERE FROM
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF
FLORIDA. IN LIGHT OF THE PRESENT UNCERTAINTY...COUPLED WITH A
DECENT CONSENSUS THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN INTO THE
CAROLINAS...THE EXTENDED FORECAST DOES NOT REFLECT ANY DIRECT
IMPACTS FROM ERIKA. EXCEPTION POTENTIALLY COULD BE ARRIVAL OF
SWELL WAVE ENERGY...PROVIDED ERIKA INTENSIFIES AS DEPICTED BY THE
OFFICIAL NHC TRACKS...THOUGH EVEN THIS PARAMETER CARRIES LIMITED
CONFIDENCE. AS A RESULT...FORECAST IN DAYS 4-7 REPRESENTS NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS FOR LATE AUGUST WITH MAXIMUMS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...MINIMUMS IN THE LOW 70S...DOTTED WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. A LOCAL ELEVATED RIP
CURRENT THREAT COULD ARRIVE ON OUR BEACHES BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH KFLO/KLBT EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS NO CONVECTION ALONG IT ATTM. CONFIDENCE
IS LOWERING FOR CONVECTION AT KILM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LACK
OF HEATING AND ONSHORE WINDS...BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT AT KILM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER IMPULSE
APPROACHES...CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS BECOME ONSHORE. DO NOT
FEEL IT WILL BE AS WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER THOUGHT. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH
AT KLBT THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE AT KFLO/KMYR/KCRE. MVFR LIKELY WITH ANY ACTIVITY...WITH TEMPO
IFR IF A CELL MOVES DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL.

THE PASSAGE OF THE IMPULSE THIS EVENING SHOULD END PRECIPITATION. A
MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS AT KFLO/KLBT. SOME SHOWERS MAY
RE-DEVELOP IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THUS MVFR
CIGS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING
BECOMING NE OVERNIGHT. VFR CIGS AFTER SUNRISE WITH NE WINDS AND SHOWERS
MAINLY NEAR KMYR/KCRE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT/SEA BREEZE HYBRID IS SLOWLY
LIFTING  BACK TO THE NW...WITH A WEAK GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE ACROSS THE
WATERS...BUT ARE TURNING TO A PREDOMINANT SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION...STRONGEST WITHIN THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WHERE
SPEEDS MAY REACH UP TO 15 KTS...10 KTS ELSEWHERE. LATEST BUOY OBS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN 10-11 SEC PERIOD SE SWELL AS THE DOMINANT WAVE
GROUP...AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
REMAINING AROUND 2-3 FT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 PM WEDNESDAY...MANAGEABLE MARINE CONDITIONS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH ONSHORE E-SE WINDS 10-15 KT BOTH DAYS OUTSIDE OF
TSTMS. SEA SPECTRUM WILL CONSIST OF ESE WAVE 2-3 FEET EVERY 10
SECONDS ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE DIRECTED CHOP.
TSTMS WILL BE SCATTERED OVER THE 0-20 NM WATERS AND MARINERS
SHOULD GET A RADAR UPDATE BEFORE HEADING OUT...AS SOME STORMS
BECOME STRONG AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MORNING WATER SPOUTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 312 PM WEDNESDAY...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY THERE APPEARS
AGREEMENT AMONG GFS/ECMWF PLOTS THAT DESPITE THE SPECIFIC
ARRANGEMENT OR CONFIGURATION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT/PATTERN WILL BE A FLAT ONE. THIS SUGGEST
LIGHT WINDS. SEAS HOWEVER DEPENDING ON HOW ERIKA INTENSITY
TRENDS PAN-OUT...MAY BE LACED WITH AN UNDERLYING LONG PERIOD
SWELL THAT COULD ACCOMPANY THE LIGHT WIND-WAVES. THIS MAY INDUCE
ENHANCED SHOALING PROCESSES IN SHALLOW WATER AREAS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL REMAIN IN THE EXTENDED MARINE
FORECAST BASED ON EXPECTED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...MRR/JDW

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
227 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSE ELIZABETHTOWN     34.56N  78.59W
08/26/2015                   BLADEN             NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF LIFTED OFF OF STORAGE BUILDING AND DEPOSITED 75
            YARDS AWAY. EMPTY 25 FT TALL SILO BLOWN OVER. ESTIMATED
            WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH.

0300 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSE ELIZABETHTOWN     34.57N  78.58W
08/26/2015                   BLADEN             NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS LARGE LIMBS DOWN FROM PECAN AND PINE TREES. A
            FEW PINE TREES UP TO 8 INCH DIAMETER WERE SNAPPED
            SEVERAL FEET OFF THE GROUND AT THE INTERSECTION OF COLEY
            RD AND ROSINDALE RD. ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1500297
EVENT NUMBER ILM1500298

CRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
321 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

SCZ053-054-262000-
INLAND HORRY-COASTAL HORRY-
321 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN HORRY
COUNTY...

AT 321 PM EDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS NEAR MYRTLE
BEACH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MYRTLE BEACH...NORTH MYRTLE BEACH...NORTH MYRTLE BEACH AIRPORT...RED
HILL...LITTLE RIVER...MYRTLE BEACH AIRPORT...LITTLE RIVER ENTRANCE...
SOCASTEE...BAREFOOT LANDING AREA OF NORTH MYRTLE BEACH...
FORESTBROOK...HAND...LONGS...WAMPEE...COASTAL CAROLINA UNIVERSITY...
HORRY GEORGETOWN TECHNICAL COLLEGE CONWAY CAMPUS...HAMMOND...
BROOKSVILLE...NIXONVILLE...BRIARCLIFFE ACRES AND ATLANTIC BEACH.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 SC HIGHWAY 31 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 5 AND 24.
 SC HIGHWAY 22 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 18 AND 26.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3377 7905 3403 7875 3385 7854 3384 7862
      3380 7872 3374 7882 3364 7894
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 237DEG 22KT 3377 7889

SHK