Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
912 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND WEAKENS. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND...WITH HEAT
INDICES BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 900 PM TUESDAY...IT IS AN ACTIVE NIGHT WITH NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE AND
VIRTUALLY ALL OF SE NORTH CAROLINA. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FREQUENT DEADLY
LIGHTING. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF FLOODING AND DAMAGE DUE TO
WINDS AND LIGHTNING. FURTHER SOUTH...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
ISOLATED.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA...FROM BBP TO EYF...BUT A SLOW DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS THE
ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN LARGELY WORKED OVER AND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
STABILIZE.

WARMER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE BETTER FIT FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...WE WILL SEE A TYPICAL LATE SPRING/EARLY
SUMMER TIME PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE AS IT ENTERS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE NW EARLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
SHORT TERM A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN OFFSHORE AND A
PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH INLAND WILL COMBINE WITH A DEEPLY
MOIST COLUMN TO KEEP IN THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AS P/W
CONTENTS WILL BE THE HIGHEST...APPROACHING 2 INCHES...AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ROILED BY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES. WEAK UPPER
RIDGING AND LOWER P/W CONTENTS WILL MAKE FOR LESSER POPS ON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE WEAKEST ON FRI...PROVIDING AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. CONVECTION WILL BE AIDED BY
LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES FRI...AND PRESENCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION WILL INCREASE DURING THE WEEKEND AS 5H
RIDGE GRADUALLY GAINS STRENGTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 2 INCHES SO DESPITE THE SUBSIDENCE AND
DOWNSLOPE FLOW THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE. AS SUCH WILL
RETAIN INHERITED SILENT DIURNAL POP. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SUN TO
BE MORE ACTIVE IF WEAK COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO SAG SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE A LONG SHOT AT
BEST...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND
THE TIME OF YEAR. 5H RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND/STRENGTHEN MON BUT
AS IS THE CASE OVER THE WEEKEND ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX
VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG A BOUNDARY FROM N
OF FLORENCE TO NEAR KILM. TEMPO THUNDERSTORMS AND IFR WILL MOST
LIKELY OCCUR AT KLBT/KFLO EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO THE
KILM/KCRE/KMYR TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD BE WEAKER
WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE SE AND TAPER
OFF 04-06Z PER HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS.

EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL COVER THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD INHIBIT FOG FORMATION BUT STILL FEEL TEMPO MVFR COULD AT
LEAST OCCUR WITH LIGHT WINDS...MOIST SOILS AND SUBSIDENCE. AFTER
SUNRISE VFR EXPECTED WITH LIGHT SW-W WINDS...BECOMING S-SW LATE
MORNING. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS/TEMPO MVFR
EACH DAY...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 900 PM TUESDAY...A TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM OF THE
WATERS...KEEPING SW WINDS IN PLACE. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 15
TO 20 KT THROUGH LATE EVE AND THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
THE TROUGH GETS A LITTLE CLOSER AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
FURTHER. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE...WITH SOME 5 FT
SEAS ACROSS THE MAINLY NORTHERN WATERS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...BERMUDA-STYLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
A MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...WITH SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT
RANGE. BIGGEST THREAT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH WILL BE PRESENT ON BOTH DAYS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD MAINTAINING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE WATERS. PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED WHICH
WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DAYTIME WIND SPEEDS. WEAK FRONT
TRIES TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. HAVE
DOUBTS THE FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA BUT IT WILL TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT A BIT RESULTING IN A SLIGHT BUMP IN WIND SPEEDS SAT
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WITHIN THE 10 TO 15 KT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD
THOUGH AN INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT. SEAS 2 TO
3 FT FRI BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT LATER SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MRR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
610 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056-102215-
ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-COASTAL PENDER-
INLAND NEW HANOVER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-INLAND BRUNSWICK-
COASTAL BRUNSWICK-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-
WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY-COASTAL HORRY-INLAND GEORGETOWN-
COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
610 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH 100 DEGREES FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

AMZ250-252-254-256-102215-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
610 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RJD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
837 PM EDT TUE JUN 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW DARLINGTON        34.32N  79.88W
06/09/2015                   DARLINGTON         SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN LAWSON RD AND SPRING ST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1500138

ROSS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
845 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

NCZ096-100130-
BLADEN-
845 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BLADEN COUNTY...

AT 844 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR
ELIZABETHTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELIZABETHTOWN...ROWAN...LAGOON...COUNCIL...RUSKIN...WHITE OAK...
ABBOTTSBURG...KELLY...AMMON...ELKTON...CARVERS...LISBON...EMERSON...
JEROME...BLADEN COMMUNITY COLLEGE...CLARKTON...WHITE LAKE...EAST
ARCADIA...DUBLIN AND BLADEN COUNTY HOSPITAL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3480 7844 3477 7843 3475 7839 3473 7839
      3472 7838 3470 7837 3467 7832 3461 7831
      3455 7825 3454 7827 3450 7825 3446 7818
      3440 7826 3437 7833 3437 7840 3439 7848
      3451 7876 3485 7875 3485 7852 3486 7850
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 286DEG 27KT 3460 7851

JDW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
856 PM EDT TUE JUN 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0759 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S FLOYD               34.33N  79.91W
06/09/2015                   DARLINGTON         SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE IN ROADWAY MCCOWNS MILLPOND RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1500139

ROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
858 PM EDT TUE JUN 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0759 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSW FLOYD             34.33N  79.91W
06/09/2015                   DARLINGTON         SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE IN ROADWAT TISH DR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1500140

ROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
859 PM EDT TUE JUN 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0759 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSW FLOYD             34.33N  79.91W
06/09/2015                   DARLINGTON         SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE IN ROADWAY TISH DR.

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER ILM1500140

ROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
909 PM EDT TUE JUN 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSW MONT CLARE        34.36N  79.83W
06/09/2015                   DARLINGTON         SC   MEDIA

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON HOUSE ON ELISSA DR. OCCUPANTS INSIDE
            UNHARMED. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1500141

ROSS