Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
340 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

TODAY & TONIGHT:
THE STAR OF THE SHOW CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SURGE SE ACROSS KS. A SHARP UPPER-DECK SHORT WAVE THAT IS SITUATED
OVER MT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PUSHES SE. AS THE
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE DAKOTAS TODAY THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PLAINS & SURGE SE. THE FRONT SHOULD CURVE
FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THRU NORTHWEST KS...TO EASTERN CO THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE UPPER-DECK SHORTWAVE UNDERGOING RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE DUE E OVER THE MN/SW ONTARIO
BORDER LATE TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL RECEIVE A SWIFT KICK SE
ACROSS CENTRAL KS TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT LIKELY TO VENTURE INTO
CENTRAL & NORTHEAST OK EARLY SUN MORNING. PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTS
ARRIVAL...VERY HIGH OCTANE FUEL WILL SURGE N/NE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 70S ARE LIKELY OVER MOST OF CENTRAL & EASTERN KS THIS
AFTERNOON & WITH SKIES CLEARING...THE AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE
QUICKLY. MLCAPES ARE LIKELY TO SKY-ROCKET INTO THE 3500-5000 J/KG
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST PRONOUNCED UPPER-DECK DYNAMICS WILL
BE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT WITH THE COLD FRONT
SURGING SE...COUPLED WITH DEEPENING & INCREASING SHEAR (6-KM BULK
SHEARS FROM 30-40 KTS ARE LIKELY OVER PRIMARILY CENTRAL KS THIS
AFTERNOON & THIS EVENING) SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO
SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL KS & PERHAPS TO THE KS TURNPIKE. LARGE HAIL
UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER NOW APPEAR POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL
KS EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT SURGES SE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS JUMPING
INTO THE 2.0 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE OVER EASTERN KS LATE TONIGHT VERY
HEAVY RAINS ARE SURE TO OCCUR...SO NO DOUBT FLOODING WILL BECOME
AN INCREASING CONCERN AS WELL.

SUN-MON:
AS THE AFORE-MENTIONED CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS A SHARPENING NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER RIDGE PUNCHING NW FROM QUEBEC TO HUDSON BAY THE
CYCLONE WOULD OCCLUDE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO SUN & SUN NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD PUSH THE FRONT WELL INTO OK...ENABLING THE RAIN TO QUICKLY
END EARLY SUN MORNING. A MASSIVE MID-UPPER DECK RIDGE SPREADING E
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS INSURES NICE WEATHER TO START THE WORK
WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

WITH THE MASSIVE MID-UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE WESTERN & CENTRAL
THIRDS OF THE U.S. CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK ARE VERY SLIM FOR
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A MID-LEVEL TROF IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
OVER KS THU NIGHT & MAY INDUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  ADVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO LEAD TO MVFR CIGS
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN KS....WITH EVEN SOME IFR CIGS NEAR KHUT.
THINK THE MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THE LONGEST NEAR KSLN/KHUT AND
KICT...POSSIBLY ALL NIGHT. WILL SEE THE MVFR CIGS DISSIPATE
ELSEWHERE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME IFR CIGS TO LINGER NEAR KHUT
AND POSSIBLY KICT.

A SMALL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST
ACROSS NRN OK OVERNIGHT...STAYING TO THE SOUTH OF THE KS/OK
BORDER. THERE IS STILL A CONCERN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING
WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOIST WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS...MAINLY WEST OF I-135. THINK
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSRA FOR AREAS SW OF THE KICT TAF...SO WILL REMOVE ANY
MENTION OF VCTS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A STORM POSSIBLY IN CLOSE TO
THE KICT TAF SITE...BUT WILL NOT MENTION IT IN THE TAF FOR NOW.

AFTER THE MORNING SHOWER/STORM THREAT ENDS...EXPECT SOUTHERLY
BREEZES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS NEAR THE
KCNU TAF SITE.

FOCUS AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TURNS TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN KS INTO CENTRAL KS LATE SAT
AFTERNOON/SAT EVENING.  WILL INSERT A VCTS FOR THE KRSL AND KSLN
TAFS BY AROUND 22-23Z/SAT...AS THE FRONT WILL BE LAYING ACROSS
CENTRAL KS WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR A TSRA CHANCE.  EXPECT
THIS FRONT TO RAPIDLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA ON
SAT EVENING WITH A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE OF STORMS DROPPING SOUTH
INTO KICT/KHUT AFTER 03-04Z/SUN.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  67  80  59 /  10  70  10   0
HUTCHINSON      92  64  79  56 /  10  80  10   0
NEWTON          91  63  78  58 /  10  80  10   0
ELDORADO        90  66  79  57 /  10  80  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  68  80  60 /  10  80  20   0
RUSSELL         94  59  79  56 /  20  70   0   0
GREAT BEND      93  61  79  56 /  20  70  10   0
SALINA          93  62  80  56 /  20  80  10   0
MCPHERSON       91  63  79  56 /  10  80  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     88  69  81  59 /  30  80  20   0
CHANUTE         88  67  79  58 /  20  80  20   0
IOLA            88  67  78  57 /  10  80  20   0
PARSONS-KPPF    88  68  80  58 /  30  80  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
453 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-231000-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
453 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...THAT MAY PRODUCE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS...SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS UNTIL MID-MORNING.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
AS A STRONG SOUTHEAST-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THEN INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AS THEY SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL AND
WINDS AROUND 70 MPH. IN CENTRAL KANSAS...THE HAIL MAY REACH AROUND
2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. LATER TONIGHT...DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY
RAINS WOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY THREATS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST
KANSAS WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS SUNDAY
MORNING BUT WOULD BE NEITHER STRONG NOR SEVERE.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS WEST OF I-135 WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SMALL HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

ES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
335 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

KSZ091-092-220915-
HARPER KS-SUMNER KS-
335 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN HARPER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHWESTERN SUMNER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 415 AM CDT

* AT 334 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF ARGONIA...OR 12
  MILES EAST OF ANTHONY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CALDWELL...ARGONIA...MILAN...DANVILLE AND FREEPORT.

LAT...LON 3700 9782 3727 9794 3734 9772 3701 9752
      3700 9769
TIME...MOT...LOC 0834Z 245DEG 16KT 3715 9781

CARUSO

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