Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
619 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

TONIGHT:
FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST AFTER INTIAL GOOD
PROGRESS. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION BOTH
PERSISTING IN THE VICINITY OF SLOWING FRONT AND ALSO DEVELOPING
LATER TONIGHT WITH ELEVATED FRONT AIDED BY UPPER JET/UPPER TROUGH.

WED:
COMBO OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE/UPPER SUPPORT WILL KEEP DECENT
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS GOING OVER MOST OF THE AREA...BUT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY. THE
COMBO OF PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT
IN MAXES WELL BELOW NORMALS.

WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT:
RIDGE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS AREA WED NIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING ON THU. AFTER COOL NIGHT WED NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO REBOUND ON THU...BUT WITH HIGHS STILL WELL BELOW
NORMALS. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL BE MILDER...WITH LIGHT SOUTH FLOW
DURING THE NIGHT.

FRI-FRI NIGHT:
THIS PERIOD IS A BIT MORE CHALLENGING. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL HAVE
DIFFERENT IDEAS ON WHEN/HOW RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. BY 1800 UTC FRI
GFS/0000 UTC ECMWF HAVE BROKE OUT PRECIPITATION ALONG EDGE/JUST
WEST OF FORECAST AREA...WITH NAM CONCURRING BY AFTERNOON. ECMWF
BREAKS OUT MORE PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHEAST KS IN THE AFTERNOON.
NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ON CHANCES DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE LIKELY
PREMATURE MOISTURE RETURN...BUT SYNOPTIC PATTERN WOULD FAVOR
PRECIPITATION FRI NIGHT VERY ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF I-35. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER ON SAT MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FLINT HILLS AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM MORE ON SAT WITH INCREASING SOUTH FLOW. 0000 UTC ECMWF
CONTINUES TO RUN ALMOST 6 HOURS FASTER WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
MAINLY ON SAT EVENING...WHILE 1200 UTC GFS HAS PASSAGE ON SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR REMAINDER OF
THIS PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURE REBOUNDING ON MON/TUE. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

A CLUSTER OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WILL SWEEP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KS JUST
AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE CNU TERMINAL
WILL BE HIT WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...INTENSE LIGHTNING...AND
POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS TO 40-45 KNOTS AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH.
EXPECT BRIEF...BUT SHARP VISIBILITY/CEILING RESTRICTIONS AS THAT
STORM CLUSTER MOVES THROUGH. THE MAIN COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH
ICT TERMINAL BY ISSUANCE TIME...AND CLEARING FAR SOUTHEAST KS BY
LATE EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...WHILE GETTING GUSTIER OVERNIGHT. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS
WITH PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER SHOULD AFFECT SOUTHERN KS
LATE TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTENING/LIFT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS WITH THIS POST-FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  73  55  81 /  40  30   0   0
HUTCHINSON      57  75  54  82 /  20  30   0   0
NEWTON          56  73  54  81 /  20  30   0   0
ELDORADO        57  72  53  81 /  50  40   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  72  54  81 /  80  40   0   0
RUSSELL         56  75  54  84 /  20  20   0   0
GREAT BEND      56  75  54  83 /  20  20   0   0
SALINA          57  76  54  84 /  20  20   0   0
MCPHERSON       57  75  54  82 /  20  20   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     61  69  52  81 /  70  60  10   0
CHANUTE         59  70  52  81 /  80  50  10   0
IOLA            58  70  52  80 /  70  50  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    60  69  52  81 /  80  60  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
710 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-200015-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
710 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THROUGH MID EVENING...BEFORE PUSHING EAST OUT
OF THE AREA. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE...AND LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES AND FLOODING. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY
LATE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  A
FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MOST LIKELY ON SATURDAY EVENING
WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...HOWEVER
REPORTS OF FLOODING OR RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF AN INCH WOULD BE
APPRECIATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
741 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E CHERRYVALE          37.27N 95.53W
08/18/2015                   MONTGOMERY         KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TWO FOOT DIAMETER TREES DOWN WITH SOME STRUCTURES
            DAMAGED.

&&

KRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
750 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0713 PM     TSTM WND GST     PARSONS TRI CITY AIRPOR 37.33N 95.52W
08/18/2015  M59.00 MPH       LABETTE            KS   ASOS

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHERRYVALE              37.27N 95.55W
08/18/2015                   MONTGOMERY         KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER POLES DOWN. ESTIMATED 65 MPH WIND.

0725 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E CHERRYVALE          37.27N 95.53W
08/18/2015                   MONTGOMERY         KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TWO FOOT DIAMETER TREES DOWN WITH SOME STRUCTURES
            DAMAGED.

&&

KRC

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