Alert archive / Kansas / Special Weather Statements in 2015

Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

June 15, 2015Neosho County, Kansas

NWS Wichita, KS issued this special weather statement at Jun 15, 2015, 4:42 PM CDT for Neosho County, Kansas. It was in force for 48 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 15, 2015, 4:42 PM CDT (21:42 UTC)
Expired: Jun 15, 2015, 5:30 PM CDT
In force: 48 min
Issued by: NWS Wichita, KS

County Neosho County, KS

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 137 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 12:00Z, 9.7 hours before the alert went out and 177 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 13 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -265 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1262 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 39 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 36 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Wichita, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jun 15, 3:16 PM CDT, 1 hour 26 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 15, 3:16 PM CDT, 1 hour 26 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
316 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WHILE A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION OF
THE NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE...WILL CONTINUE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWEST
TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WASHING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOMALOUSLY
RICH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS (~1.75 IN.) WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS AND WILL HAVE RELATIVELY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN
THOSE AREAS...WHERE WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS POSSIBLE UNDER
WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT. LATEST SPC HRRR VERSION PUSHES CURRENT
CONVECTION OUT OF SOUTHEAST KS BY MID EVENING...WITH A SIGNFICANT
LULL THEREAFTER. WOULD THINK EVEN IF THIS HAPPENS...THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SHEAR AXIS EMANATING FROM WEST TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD...COULD
IGNITE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ~4KM OR
GREATER AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS FAVOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES. IN ADDITION...SOUNDING PROFILES WOULD ALSO SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED WET MICROBURST OR TWO.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:
WITH REGARD TO THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HEADING
INTO SOUTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM-WRF OFFER
VASTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THIS SYSTEM
COULD IMPACT FAR SOUTHEAST KS SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IF THE GFS AND NAM ARE MORE CORRECT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM
APPEARS TOO FAST WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. THE ECMWF
INDICATES ANY IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST KS WOULD NOT COME UNTIL FRIDAY-
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/TRACK OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS LOW AT THIS JUNCTURE.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BUT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING
THIS ENTIRE PERIOD.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ARE PROGGED TO PUSH WELL
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE A FAIRLY
STRONG/AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF WAS STRONGER WITH THE
AMPLIFCATION...DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. IT HAS AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THE GFS DID NOT AMPLIFY THE SHORTWAVE AS MUCH...AND AS A
RESULT BRINGS THE FRONT TO CENTRAL KS NEAR I-70 BEFORE STALLING THE
BOUNDARY. A COMPROMISE OF THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING THE FRONT INTO
THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES RATHER WARM...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE IN
THE FORECAST...COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH KCNU DURING THE NIGHT. HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ARE AT KCNU...WITH RAIN SHOWERS FLIRTING WITH
KICT AT THE START OF THE FORECAST. VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOIST/UPSLOPE AIRMASS NORTH
OF FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE LOW CLOUDS...PROBABLY
MVFR...PSBLY IFR...TOWARDS DAYBREAK AT MOST LOCATIONS. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    68  83  69  86 /  40  50  20  20
HUTCHINSON      66  83  67  87 /  30  20  20  20
NEWTON          67  82  68  85 /  40  40  20  20
ELDORADO        68  82  69  85 /  50  60  30  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  83  70  85 /  50  60  40  40
RUSSELL         63  83  66  88 /  20  10  20  10
GREAT BEND      64  83  66  88 /  20  20  20  10
SALINA          66  83  68  87 /  20  20  20  20
MCPHERSON       66  83  68  87 /  30  20  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     70  82  71  82 /  70  70  60  60
CHANUTE         69  82  70  83 /  70  60  60  60
IOLA            69  82  69  83 /  70  60  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    70  82  71  83 /  70  70  60  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 15, 3:41 PM CDT, 1 hour 1 minute before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
341 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-162045-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
341 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CHASE...MARION AND HARVEY
COUNTIES...AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE COWSKIN CREEK
IN WEST WICHITA. PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WARNING STATEMENTS FOR
DETAILS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
KANSAS TURNPIKE. AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE
LIKELY WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ALONG THE
COWSKIN CREEK IN WEST WICHITA. PLEASE REFER TO THE FLOOD WARNING
STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

PERIODIC EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WHILE ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE
WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY
HEAVY RAIN...WHICH MAY PRODUCE FLOODING OF TYPICAL FLOOD PRONE
AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 15, 3:31 PM CDT, 1 hour 11 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
331 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

KSZ072-095-096-152100-
WILSON KS-ALLEN KS-NEOSHO KS-
331 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTERN WILSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  ALLEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  NEOSHO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 329 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
  TRACKING THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM NEAR LA HARPE TO 6 MILES WEST OF NEODESHA...AND
  MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS ALONG
WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFAL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CHANUTE...IOLA...NEODESHA...HUMBOLDT...ERIE...ST. PAUL...LA
  HARPE...GAS...MORAN...THAYER...ALTOONA...GALESBURG...SAVONBURG...
  ELSMORE...STARK...EARLTON...BASSETT...PETROLIA...LAKE PARSONS AND
  IOLA AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR
MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3755 9511 3739 9536 3740 9588 3773 9557
      3773 9553 3778 9553 3802 9530 3802 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 260DEG 28KT 3795 9526 3742 9580

DARMOFAL

Special weather statement, Jun 15, 4:42 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
442 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

KSZ094>096-098>100-152230-
CHAUTAUQUA KS-ELK KS-WILSON KS-NEOSHO KS-LABETTE KS-MONTGOMERY KS-
442 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN ELK COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  SOUTHERN WILSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  NEOSHO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  NORTHERN LABETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  NORTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 440 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
  TRACKING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
  ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF ERIE TO 6 MILES SOUTH
  OF LONGTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS ALONG
WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PARSONS...INDEPENDENCE...NEODESHA...CHERRYVALE...ERIE...ST. PAUL...
  THAYER...ALTOONA...ELK CITY...GALESBURG...SYCAMORE...STARK...
  EARLTON...PARSONS TRI CITY AIRPORT...LAKE PARSONS...ELK CITY
  LAKE...BIG HILL LAKE...DENNIS...SOUTH MOUND AND ELK CITY STATE
  PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR
MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3734 9510 3724 9561 3726 9616 3732 9613
      3737 9605 3740 9597 3769 9528 3769 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 270DEG 28KT 3765 9524 3729 9604

DARMOFAL

The office that day

Everything else NWS Wichita, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 14, 7:10 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ICT	Marion	20 min
Jun 14, 7:24 PM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	ICT	Marion	3 hr
Jun 14, 9:23 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ICT	Kingman	37 min
Jun 14, 9:53 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ICT	Kingman	22 min
Jun 14, 10:28 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ICT	Reno	32 min
Jun 14, 11:03 PM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	ICT	Harvey, McPherson, Marion, Reno	4 hr
Jun 14, 11:54 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	ICT	Marion	3 hr
Jun 15, 12:58 AM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	ICT	Butler, Chase, Harvey, Marion, Reno, Sedgwick	8 hr
Jun 15, 1:37 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	ICT	Harvey	7 hr
Jun 15, 2:18 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	ICT	Sedgwick	6 hr
Jun 15, 3:03 AM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	ICT	Harvey, McPherson, Marion	8 hr
Jun 15, 7:32 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	ICT	Sedgwick	4 hr
Jun 15, 7:58 AM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	ICT	Harvey	35 hr
Jun 15, 8:11 AM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	ICT	Chase, Marion	25 hr
Jun 15, 8:29 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	ICT	Sedgwick	47 hr
Jun 15, 9:00 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	ICT	Marion	48 hr
Jun 15, 3:31 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ICT	Allen, Neosho	29 min
Jun 15, 5:37 PM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	ICT	Labette, Montgomery, Neosho, Wilson	4 hr
Jun 15, 6:34 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	ICT	Sedgwick	26 hr
Jun 15, 6:46 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ICT	Labette	44 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Kansas, 2015 Every special weather statement in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.