Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
710 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

MAIN SUPERCELL ACROSS BARBER COUNTY SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN EVENT
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS ON RADAR AND NWP. LOOKING AT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS OKLAHOMA...THEY HAVE BEEN HEADING
DOWNWARD...AS IS EVEN THE CASE IN THE BARBER/COMANCHE STORM.

LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN INCREASING WHICH HAS BEEN SUPPORTING
BRIEF TORNADOES WITH THAT STORM WITH INCREASED LOCAL HELICITY.
EXTRAPOLATING THE CURRENT MOVEMENT WOULD BRING IT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA /KINGMAN COUNTY/ ABOUT 01Z.

SPC ANALYSIS/LAPS ANALYSIS AND RAP FORECASTS FOR THE LAST 3 RUNS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A TRANSITION OF THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR
TORNADOES TO HAVE SHIFTED WEST. THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY AREA
REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRIPLE
POINT.

MOREOVER...SEEMS THAT AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST THEY GET INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT HAS DECREASED HELICITY AND IS JUST NOT AS
FAVORABLE GIVEN THAT THE EARLIER CONVECTION MAY HAVE ALTERED THE
ENVIRONMENT ENOUGH TO DECREASE THE THREAT.

IN SUMMARY...THINK THE STORM THAT IS ONGOING IS THE MAIN THREAT AS
ARE SOME OF THE STORMS COMING FROM OKLAHOMA.
OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE
THREAT FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

KRC

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

THIS EVENING-TONIGHT: LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN SURFACE
BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST TO THE SE OF ICT METRO...MAINLY FROM EUREKA TO
MULVANE TO WELLINGTON.  THE INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS ALREADY
BEGUN OVER SRN KS...WITH MULTICELL STORMS PRODUCING MAINLY HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  THIS INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS WILL STAY IN THE WARM
SECTOR ACROSS SE KS FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE MAIN
CONCERN FROM THIS ROUND BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN
THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR.

LATEST SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BOUNDARY
RETROGRADING BACK TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING BETWEEN 21Z-02Z...
WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL CAPE BACK TOWARDS THE KICT
METRO. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR FROM THE
INCOMING DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE A
SCENARIO VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRY LINE AS IT SHARPENS FOR AREAS TO THE WEST AND SW OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KS.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A SECOND POSSIBLY MORE SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE OF STORMS FOR LATER THIS EVENING WELL AFTER DARK. LATEST HI-
RES MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW 0-8KM SHEAR IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE LONG TRACK TORNADOES. INCREASED MLCAPE TO
2000-2500 J/KG AND LOWERING LCL LEVELS WOULD ALSO SUGGEST A
STRONG TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. SO THIS SETUP WOULD STILL LEAD TO
HIGH LIKELYHOOD OF THE TORNADO THREAT CONTINUING WELL AFTER DARK
FOR AREAS AREAS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...MAINLY ALONG OR SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 54/400.

EXPECT THE SEVERE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH PROGRESSION OF THE STORMS TO THE EAST INTO THE FLINT
HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO WANE SOME AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY SHIFT THE SEVERE WEATHER MODE TO MORE
OF A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND CHANCE.

THU: COULD SEE SOME LINGERING STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
KS IN THE MORNING HOURS AS THE DRY LINE/BOUNDARY SURGES EAST INTO
WRN MO. IT NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME LINGERING STRONG STORMS WILL BE OVER SE KS...BUT THIS CHANCE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED. EXPECT THE THU AFTERNOON SEVERE THREAT TO
OVER EXTREME SE KS AND MAINLY IN SW MO. WITH THE REST OF THE
REGION SEEING NICE WEATHER RETURN TO THE AREA...WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA.

FRI-EARLY SAT: A COUPLE OF NICE DAY EXPECTED FOR FRI AND EARLY SAT
AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
SRN PLAINS.  THIS WILL LEAD TO NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES
IN MOST LOCATIONS.  AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RAPIDLY RETURN TO THE AREA FOR AREAS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
SAT AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA AND POSSIBLY MOVE INTO SOME OF THE WRN PORTIONS OF
COUNTY WARNING AREA BY SAT EVENING.

SAT NIGHT: ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE WRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SAT NIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASING ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA FOR SAT NIGHT.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO DIFFER SOME ON HOW SUN AND MON WILL PLAY OUT.
BUT BOT MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE ECMWF LOOKS TO
CLEAR THINGS OUT ON MON...WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS A BOUNDARY MAY BE
STATIONARY ACROSS SRN KS FOR MON.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING OVER OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
THE AIRSPACE AND CONTINUE WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS THROUGH 6Z. THIS
WILL AFFECT ALL AIRPORTS AND FIELDS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF KSLN-
KVNX. THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE AND SHOULD BE AVOIDED.

FOG...WHICH CONTINUES TO AFFECT KHUT...KRSL...KSLN HAS BEEN SLOW
TO BURN OFF. THINK IT SHOULD BE GONE BY 21Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 03Z...WITH FOG REDEVELOPMENT THERE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 12Z.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY 14Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK TO ON THURSDAY.

EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL
BE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS DUE TO GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY LOOKS TO BE THU. THIS IS
WHEN STRONG NW WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG
WITH RH'S IN THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE. WIND SPEEDS THU AFTERNOON
WILL BE IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    56  71  39  68 /  60  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      52  67  37  68 /  40  10   0   0
NEWTON          54  67  38  67 /  50  10   0   0
ELDORADO        60  69  39  68 /  70  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   61  72  40  68 /  80  10   0   0
RUSSELL         46  63  35  67 /  20  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      46  64  35  67 /  20  10   0   0
SALINA          50  65  35  68 /  30  20  10   0
MCPHERSON       51  66  36  67 /  40  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     65  76  42  68 /  90  30  10   0
CHANUTE         64  73  41  68 /  90  30  10   0
IOLA            63  72  40  67 /  90  30  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    64  74  41  68 /  90  30  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
535 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-092245-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
535 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS THIS EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. VERY LARGE HAIL TO
BASEBALLS AND WINDS TO 75 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING. THESE WILL OCCUR AS CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR BASEBALL SIZED
HAIL AND 70 MPH WINDS. THIS TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE WELL
AFTER DARK AS THE STORMS MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON
THURSDAY...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE QUITE STRONG. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

VERY HIGH TO POSSIBLY EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
843 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

KSZ052-053-069-070-090215-
CHASE KS-GREENWOOD KS-MARION KS-BUTLER KS-
843 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CHASE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN GREENWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  NORTHERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 840 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FLORENCE...
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PEABODY...COTTONWOOD FALLS...STRONG CITY...FLORENCE...POTWIN...
  ELBING...BURNS...CASSODAY...BAZAAR...ELMDALE...MATFIELD GREEN...
  CEDAR POINT...WONSEVU...TALLGRASS PRAIRIE PRESERVE AND TALLGRASS
  PRAIRIE.

LAT...LON 3822 9635 3817 9636 3817 9632 3812 9629
      3788 9708 3812 9716 3817 9715 3818 9718
      3825 9720 3848 9651
TIME...MOT...LOC 0140Z 240DEG 32KT 3818 9683

BILLINGS WRIGHT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
844 PM CDT WED APR 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     TORNADO          6 NW GODDARD            37.72N 97.65W
04/08/2015                   SEDGWICK           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROPE TORNADO ALONG WITH A CONE FUNNEL.

&&

RBL

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