Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Wichita, KS

579 
WWUS53 KICT 082108
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
408 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

KSC001-082118-
/O.EXP.KICT.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-150408T2115Z/
ALLEN KS-
408 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN ALLEN COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 415 PM CDT...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3785 9514 3786 9516 3801 9526 3804 9520
      3804 9508 3787 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 241DEG 31KT 3797 9513 

$$

KETCHAM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
253 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

THIS EVENING-TONIGHT: LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN SURFACE
BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST TO THE SE OF ICT METRO...MAINLY FROM EUREKA TO
MULVANE TO WELLINGTON.  THE INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS ALREADY
BEGUN OVER SRN KS...WITH MULTICELL STORMS PRODUCING MAINLY HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  THIS INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS WILL STAY IN THE WARM
SECTOR ACROSS SE KS FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE MAIN
CONCERN FROM THIS ROUND BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN
THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE BULK SHEAR.

LATEST SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BOUNDARY
RETROGRADING BACK TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING BETWEEN 21Z-02Z...
WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL CAPE BACK TOWARDS THE KICT
METRO. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR FROM THE
INCOMING DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE A
SCENARIO VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRY LINE AS IT SHARPENS FOR AREAS TO THE WEST AND SW OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KS.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A SECOND POSSIBLY MORE SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE OF STORMS FOR LATER THIS EVENING WELL AFTER DARK. LATEST HI-
RES MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW 0-8KM SHEAR IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE LONG TRACK TORNADOES. INCREASED MLCAPE TO
2000-2500 J/KG AND LOWERING LCL LEVELS WOULD ALSO SUGGEST A
STRONG TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. SO THIS SETUP WOULD STILL LEAD TO
HIGH LIKELYHOOD OF THE TORNADO THREAT CONTINUING WELL AFTER DARK
FOR AREAS AREAS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...MAINLY ALONG OR SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 54/400.

EXPECT THE SEVERE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH PROGRESSION OF THE STORMS TO THE EAST INTO THE FLINT
HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO WANE SOME AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY SHIFT THE SEVERE WEATHER MODE TO MORE
OF A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND CHANCE.

THU: COULD SEE SOME LINGERING STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
KS IN THE MORNING HOURS AS THE DRY LINE/BOUNDARY SURGES EAST INTO
WRN MO. IT NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT
SOME LINGERING STRONG STORMS WILL BE OVER SE KS...BUT THIS CHANCE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED. EXPECT THE THU AFTERNOON SEVERE THREAT TO
OVER EXTREME SE KS AND MAINLY IN SW MO. WITH THE REST OF THE
REGION SEEING NICE WEATHER RETURN TO THE AREA...WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA.

FRI-EARLY SAT: A COUPLE OF NICE DAY EXPECTED FOR FRI AND EARLY SAT
AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
SRN PLAINS.  THIS WILL LEAD TO NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES
IN MOST LOCATIONS.  AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RAPIDLY RETURN TO THE AREA FOR AREAS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
SAT AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA AND POSSIBLY MOVE INTO SOME OF THE WRN PORTIONS OF
COUNTY WARNING AREA BY SAT EVENING.

SAT NIGHT: ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE WRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SAT NIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASING ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA FOR SAT NIGHT.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO DIFFER SOME ON HOW SUN AND MON WILL PLAY OUT.
BUT BOT MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE ECMWF LOOKS TO
CLEAR THINGS OUT ON MON...WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS A BOUNDARY MAY BE
STATIONARY ACROSS SRN KS FOR MON.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING OVER OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
THE AIRSPACE AND CONTINUE WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS THROUGH 6Z. THIS
WILL AFFECT ALL AIRPORTS AND FIELDS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF KSLN-
KVNX. THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE AND SHOULD BE AVOIDED.

FOG...WHICH CONTINUES TO AFFECT KHUT...KRSL...KSLN HAS BEEN SLOW
TO BURN OFF. THINK IT SHOULD BE GONE BY 21Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 03Z...WITH FOG REDEVELOPMENT THERE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 12Z.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY 14Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK TO ON THURSDAY.

EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL
BE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS DUE TO GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY LOOKS TO BE THU. THIS IS
WHEN STRONG NW WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG
WITH RH'S IN THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE. WIND SPEEDS THU AFTERNOON
WILL BE IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    56  71  38  68 /  30  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      52  67  37  68 /  20  10   0   0
NEWTON          54  67  38  67 /  30  10   0   0
ELDORADO        60  69  40  68 /  40  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   61  72  41  68 /  30  10   0   0
RUSSELL         46  63  35  67 /  20  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      46  64  35  67 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          50  65  35  68 /  30  20  10   0
MCPHERSON       51  66  36  67 /  30  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     65  76  43  68 /  40  30  10   0
CHANUTE         64  73  41  68 /  50  30  10   0
IOLA            63  72  40  67 /  50  30  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    64  74  42  68 /  50  30  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
329 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-092030-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
329 PM CDT WED APR 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. VERY LARGE HAIL TO BASEBALLS AND
WINDS TO 75 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
EVENING BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM. THESE WILL OCCUR AS CONDITIONS BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG. THESE
STORMS WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND
70 MPH WINDS. THIS TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE WELL AFTER DARK
AS THE STORMS MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS
INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY
WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

VERY HIGH TO POSSIBLY EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

LAWSON/KETCHAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
314 PM CDT WED APR 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 S BUXTON              37.42N 95.92W
04/08/2015  E60 MPH          WILSON             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
327 PM CDT WED APR 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     TSTM WND GST     CHANUTE                 37.67N 95.46W
04/08/2015  M67 MPH          NEOSHO             KS   ASOS

&&

JAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
330 PM CDT WED APR 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 PM     TSTM WND GST     CHANUTE                 37.67N 95.46W
04/08/2015  M67.00 MPH       NEOSHO             KS   ASOS

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
332 PM CDT WED APR 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 PM     HAIL             YATES CENTER            37.87N 95.74W
04/08/2015  E0.75 INCH       WOODSON            KS   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED VIA TWITTER OF DIME SIZED HAIL.

0325 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 SSW IOLA              37.83N 95.45W
04/08/2015  E60.00 MPH       ALLEN              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
347 PM CDT WED APR 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0341 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSE IOLA              37.92N 95.40W
04/08/2015  E60 MPH          ALLEN              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
358 PM CDT WED APR 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             4 NE YATES CENTER       37.91N 95.69W
04/08/2015  M1.50 INCH       WOODSON            KS   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS VIA TWITTER PIC OF PING PONG BALL SIZED
            HAIL. TIME IS APPROXIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

VJP