Severe Thunderstorm Warning 222, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
620 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST AND HAS BEGUN INTERACTING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION...EXPECT COVERAGE TO
RAMP UP AND INCREASE AS THE EVENING HOURS PROGRESS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH INSTABILITIES APPROACHING 2500-4000 J/KG AND
40+ KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR...EXPECT STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. A
FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY BEFORE GROWING UPSCALE
INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATER THIS EVENING AND DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A FEW POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AROUND DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY AS
MID-LEVEL BAROCLINICITY LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON FRIDAY...A DRY AND COOL POST FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION BRINGING UNSEASONABLE COOL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

JMR

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
TUESDAY. NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AS LEE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...BRINGING BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT.

JMR

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS...WITH A
SECONDARY AREA OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE STORMS ALONG
THE FRONT EVENTUALLY CATCHING UP AND MOVING THROUGH THE WHOLE
FORECAST AREA. KRSL/KSLN WILL HAVE THE TREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WITH THE
HEAVIEST/STRONGEST STORMS. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST 06
HOURS OF THE FORECAST. THE MAIN THREAT WILL THEN TRANSITION TO
KHUT/KICT/KCNU FOR THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN
THREAT THEN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. EXPECT THE MAIN LINE OF
CONVECTION TO EXIT THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE...AS THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES...BUT THE NAM DOES KEEP SOME
LINGERING PRECIP AROUND OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AFTER 12Z. SOMETHING
TO WATCH FOR LATER ISSUANCES.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    63  75  52  73 /  70  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      60  75  52  73 /  70  20  10  10
NEWTON          60  74  51  71 /  70  20  10   0
ELDORADO        62  74  50  71 /  70  20   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   64  76  51  73 /  70  30  10   0
RUSSELL         56  74  51  75 /  60  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      58  74  52  75 /  60  10  10  10
SALINA          58  74  50  73 /  70  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       60  74  51  73 /  70  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     64  74  49  72 /  70  40   0   0
CHANUTE         63  73  49  71 /  70  30   0   0
IOLA            62  73  49  71 /  70  30   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    64  73  48  71 /  70  40   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
430 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-112130-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
430 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. CENTRAL KANSAS WILL SEE THE GREATEST
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AFTER 5PM WHERE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 75 MPH.

AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND STORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS...THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A LINEAR COMPLEX OF STORMS AS
THEY APPROACH SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 65 MPH AND 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO POSE A MINOR FLOODING
THREAT THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY
IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR LOCATIONS NEAR
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON THURSDAY. ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM KINGMAN TO WICHITA TO PARSONS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
758 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0758 PM     HAIL             1 S HOLYROOD            38.57N 98.41W
09/10/2015  M0.50 INCH       ELLSWORTH          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A LOT OF PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL.

&&

JMR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
802 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 PM     HAIL             SW HOLYROOD             38.59N 98.41W
09/10/2015  M0.25 INCH       ELLSWORTH          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JMR

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>