Severe Thunderstorm Warning 212, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
303 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT
MON SEP 7 2015

A SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER TROUGH WAS DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS MANITOBA
WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AREA SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES CONTINUED TO DAMPEN AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS MIXING SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN KS
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A SLOW MOVING DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS
DRIFTING SSW ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
A FEW STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THIS
DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHILE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KS WHERE HIGHER
POPS WERE MAINTAINED. SHEAR/INSTABILITY PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT A FEW
STRONG OR PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS ALTHOUGH HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION TO MUCH OF THE REGION. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40+ KNOTS
COMBINED WITH MLCAPE OF 2000+ J/KG WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS
BUT LOW CINH MAY RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD EARLY CONVECTION LIMITING
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. A VERY MOIST COLUMN IS ALSO PROGGED WITH PWATS
RISING INTO THE 2.25+ RANGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS MAY EXCEED 4500 METERS. WHEN COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM
MOTIONS AND SHORT MBE VELOCITY VECTORS...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
MAY ALSO BE A CONCERN ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AFTER 06Z ON
TUE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

WED...A DRY POST-FRONTAL REGIME WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
ANTICIPATED ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S.

THU-FRI...A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATE THU BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
THU-FRI. IN ADDITION...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR IS ALSO
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ON FRI-SAT STRUGGLING TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 70S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON
SEP 7 2015

DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES SPRAWLS EASTWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. RISING HEIGHTS
AND A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD.

THE COLD FRONT THAT CREPT INTO CENTRAL KS LAST NIGHT IS STARTING
TO LIFT NORTH AND WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY.
THE ISO-SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE EAST/NORTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA ARE THE RESULT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
310-315K LAYER AND LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTHWEST AND NOW
STRETCHES FROM SW OF KSLN TO SOUTH OF KCNU. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY
HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS STORMS DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALSO POSSIBLE IN
BASICALLY THE SAME AREAS AS LAST EVENING...IN THE WELL MIXED
AIRMASS OVER SW KS/PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL.

BETTER STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH WITH THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT WITH KRSL AND KSLN HAVING A GOOD CHANCE TO SEE STORMS NEAR
OR AFTER 12Z TUE.

LAWSON
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  90  67  85 /  20  60  50  10
HUTCHINSON      74  88  64  84 /  30  60  40  10
NEWTON          73  87  65  83 /  30  60  50  10
ELDORADO        74  90  66  84 /  20  60  70  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   75  92  68  85 /  10  50  70  10
RUSSELL         69  85  61  84 /  30  40  20  10
GREAT BEND      71  86  62  84 /  30  40  20  10
SALINA          73  86  63  84 /  50  60  30  10
MCPHERSON       73  87  64  84 /  30  60  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     75  91  68  84 /  10  50  80  30
CHANUTE         74  90  68  84 /  20  60  80  20
IOLA            74  88  67  83 /  20  60  80  20
PARSONS-KPPF    75  90  68  84 /  10  50  80  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
309 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015

KSZ032-072045-
RUSSELL KS-
309 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN RUSSELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 307 PM CDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
  DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
  7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DORRANCE...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RUSSELL...
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  DORRANCE...BUNKER HILL...WILSON LAKE AND WILSON STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3897 9849 3870 9849 3870 9874 3882 9884
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 235DEG 17KT 3879 9870

LAWSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
352 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015

KSZ033-048-072115-
ELLSWORTH KS-LINCOLN KS-
352 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN ELLSWORTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 349 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF WILSON...MOVING
  EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WILSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3905 9820 3881 9810 3877 9848 3887 9849
      3896 9848
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 258DEG 28KT 3887 9835

LAWSON

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