Severe Thunderstorm Warning 143, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
348 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TONIGHT:
FRONT HALFWAY THROUGH FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME...AND EXPECTED
TO REACH SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
FILL IN/EXPAND WITH VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF FRONT.
MAIN THREATS WILL BE WET MICROBURSTS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM
THE TORRENTIAL/TROPICAL RAINFALL RATES. ANTICIPATE WIND THREAT
WILL BE HIGHLY ISOLATED GIVEN UNFAVORABLE 700MB FLOW. WILL
CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN VERY MOIST COLUMN.

TUE-THU:
LATEST MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF POSITIONS OF FRONT THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD...WITH GFS ONCE AGAIN STRONGEST WITH THE SURFACE
WAVE. OPTED FOR A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH WHICH WAS CLOSE TO
THE NAM EARLY ON...BUT NAM SEEMS A BIT SLOW LATER IN THIS PERIOD.
FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD TONIGHT...BUT NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC ON
SECOND HALF OF FLOOD WATCH...EXCEPT IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST
CORNER. HOWEVER GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE WATCH STATUS QUO.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED OVER MOST OF AREA DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH SOME CLEARING IN FAR
NORTHWEST SECTIONS...TEMPERATURES THERE WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN REST OF THE AREA ON TUE-WED. CHANCES OF RAIN BY THU
WILL START TO SHIFT BACK NORTH AS BOUNDARY RETREATS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRIER WEATHER AND
INCREASING TEMPERATURES. FRONT MAY FLIRT WITH NORTHERN SECTIONS BY
SUN-MON...BUT GIVEN COMBO OF CAPPING AND UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES MAYBE A BIT CONSERVATIVE
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SURFACE LAYER DRIES OUT -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

STRONG COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL KS AND
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST KS INTO THE OK PANHANDLE.
SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALONG THIS FEATURE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AND MORE INTENSE AS THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH KSLN IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AND KICT AFTER 21Z. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
PRODUCE VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WET
MICROBURSTS. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END OVER CENTRAL KS(KRSL-
KSLN) AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z...IT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  72  62  75 / 100  40  50  30
HUTCHINSON      63  72  60  77 / 100  30  30  20
NEWTON          63  73  61  74 / 100  40  50  30
ELDORADO        64  73  61  73 /  90  50  70  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  74  63  74 /  90  60  70  30
RUSSELL         62  77  58  80 /  50  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      62  76  58  79 /  50  10  10  10
SALINA          63  75  60  77 /  70  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       63  74  60  77 /  90  20  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     69  73  66  74 /  80  80  90  60
CHANUTE         66  73  64  73 /  90  80  90  60
IOLA            65  73  64  73 /  90  70  90  60
PARSONS-KPPF    68  73  65  74 /  80  80  90  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ069>072-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
424 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-072130-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
424 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT. TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
AT LEAST TEMPORARY STREET FLOODING...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF ONE
TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY. A FEW MICROBURSTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN ISOLATED GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST ON
TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...RENEWING THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. THIS COULD LEAD TO MORE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND/OR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.

HEAT INDICES WILL BE NEAR 100 OVER MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

HOWERTON

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
621 PM CDT MON JUL 06 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     HEAVY RAIN       NORTHEAST WICHITA       37.75N 97.22W
07/06/2015  M3.10 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT VIA FACEBOOK OF 3.10 INCHES AT HIGHWAY 254
            AND HILLSIDE.

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
625 PM CDT MON JUL 06 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     HEAVY RAIN       EAST WICHITA            37.68N 97.26W
07/06/2015  M3.60 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER MEASURES 3.6 INCHES IN THE LAST 2 HOURS
            AT KELLOGG AND HILLSIDE.

&&

VJP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
629 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

KSZ091-092-070000-
HARPER KS-SUMNER KS-
629 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL HARPER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHERN SUMNER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 628 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ATLANTA TO GEUDA SPRINGS TO
  NEAR CALDWELL...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CALDWELL...OXFORD...SOUTH HAVEN...GEUDA SPRINGS AND PERTH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR
MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3701 9781 3713 9787 3727 9733 3737 9715
      3701 9715
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 289DEG 25KT 3739 9669 3713 9713 3704 9767

BILLINGS WRIGHT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
632 PM CDT MON JUL 06 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     LIGHTNING        EAST WICHITA            37.68N 97.26W
07/06/2015                   SEDGWICK           KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LIGHTNING STRUCK A HOUSE, STARTING A LARGE FIRE. VIA KWCH
            TV.

&&

BDK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
632 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

KSZ069>072-094>096-070000-
WOODSON KS-ELK KS-WILSON KS-ALLEN KS-GREENWOOD KS-NEOSHO KS-
BUTLER KS-
632 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN WOODSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  ELK COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  NORTHERN WILSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  ALLEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  SOUTHERN GREENWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN NEOSHO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 631 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM NEAR MORAN TO 10 MILES WEST OF HOWARD...AND MOVING
  EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CHANUTE...IOLA...FREDONIA...HUMBOLDT...YATES CENTER...HOWARD...LA
  HARPE...GAS...MORAN...MOLINE...TORONTO...SEVERY...BUFFALO...
  GRENOLA...FALL RIVER...LATHAM...SAVONBURG...ELSMORE...BENEDICT AND
  CLIMAX.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR
MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3775 9509 3730 9648 3731 9652 3748 9652
      3748 9695 3768 9642 3803 9537 3804 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 286DEG 25KT 3797 9515 3751 9644

BILLINGS WRIGHT