Severe Thunderstorm Warning 132, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
656 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM
NORTHERN MISSOURI...TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. A FAIRLY
DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH A WEAKER VORT LOBE OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. IF VERY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS/CAPPING CAN BE OVERCOME...
INITIAL SURFACE BASED STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TOWARD EARLY THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY AIDED BY THE COLORADO
VORT MAX...AND A COMBINATION OF HEATING/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. OTHER
SURFACE-BASED STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD...AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGEST UPPER SUPPORT IS PROGGED JUST NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL
KANSAS TONIGHT...ANTICIPATING A CLUSTER OR TWO OF STORMS TO
TRAVERSE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ON THE WEAK-MARGINAL
SIDE (20-30 KTS) AND BETTER JUST TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...A STRONG
MLCAPE AXIS OF 2500-3500 J/KG WILL BE IN PLACE THIS EVENING IN
CENTRAL KS...WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...A FEW STRONG-
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN CENTRAL KS...WITH WIND GUSTS
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT...AND PERHAPS HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR
SIZE.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY LATE TONIGHT...AND
WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY...WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
PUSH IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY-SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH PASSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
EASTERN KS. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY MARGINAL AND THERE
WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER IN
SOUTHEAST KS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK TO SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PATTERN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/MIDWEST REGION AROUND MIDWEEK...WITH AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH KANSAS. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS BETTER GULF MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

AT TAF ISSUANCE A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM CNTRL MO...THRU CNTRL
KS...TO EXTREME SE CO. AS EXPECTED SCT STG-SVR TSRA ERUPTED ALONG
THE FRONT WITH THE CLOSEST TSRA STRADDLING THE RUSSELL/BARTON
COUNTY LINE. WITH THE COLD FRONT VENTURING SLOWLY SE TOWARD...THEN
ACRS...SC & SE KS LATE TNGT & EARLY FRI MRNG THE AXIS OF STG TSRA
WOULD LIKEWISE SHIFT SE DURING THESE PERIODS. CIGS & VSBYS ARE
SURE TO DETERIORATE IN TSRA WITH CIGS PERHAPS AS LOW AS 800-1000FT
& 2-3SM VSBYS. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE ONLY SLGT IMPROVEMENT SHOULD
OCCUR WITH CIGS LIFTING TO ~1500-2000FT 15Z-18Z ALTHO VSBYS ACRS
CNTRL KS WOULD IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY AS NLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCRG
TO 10-15KTS ADVECT DRIER LWR-DECK AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  85  63  85 /  40  40  10   0
HUTCHINSON      71  83  63  85 /  60  40   0   0
NEWTON          71  83  62  85 /  50  40  10   0
ELDORADO        73  84  62  84 /  50  40  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  86  63  86 /  40  40  10   0
RUSSELL         67  83  61  86 /  60  20   0  10
GREAT BEND      69  83  61  86 /  60  30   0   0
SALINA          70  82  63  85 /  60  30   0  10
MCPHERSON       70  83  62  85 /  60  40   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     74  85  64  84 /  50  60  20  10
CHANUTE         73  83  62  83 /  50  60  10  10
IOLA            72  83  62  82 /  50  60  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    73  84  63  83 /  50  60  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
329 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-262030-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
329 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HEAT INDICES WILL BE AROUND 100 DEGREES UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. A
FEW STRONG STORMS MAY REDEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT THE AREA AGAIN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS FOR
THIS EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
617 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

KSZ032-047-252345-
RUSSELL KS-BARTON KS-
617 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN RUSSELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  NORTHEASTERN BARTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 614 PM CDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
  DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
  NEAR MILBERGER...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF HOISINGTON...MOVING EAST AT
  20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SUSANK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3874 9890 3884 9851 3857 9850 3864 9890
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 268DEG 17KT 3870 9881

MCGUIRE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
705 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 PM     HAIL             5 S ALBERT              38.38N 99.01W
06/25/2015  E0.88 INCH       BARTON             KS   PUBLIC

            INDIVIDUAL REPORTS VIA TWITTER OF MARBLE TO NICKEL SIZED
            HAIL WHICH IS STARTING TO ACCUMULATE.

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
727 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 NW GREAT BEND         38.43N 98.90W
06/25/2015  E70.00 MPH       BARTON             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS WITH TREE
            LIMBS BREAKING IN HEIZER.

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
735 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0734 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HOISINGTON              38.52N 98.78W
06/25/2015                   BARTON             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS TREE LIMBS AND SEVERAL SCATTERED
            TRAMPOLINES. SPOTTER ALSO REPORTED DIME SIZED HAIL.

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
752 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     HAIL             5 N HOISINGTON          38.59N 98.78W
06/25/2015  E2.50 INCH       BARTON             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS GOLF BALL TO TENNIS BALL SIZED
            HAIL. TIME IS ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

VJP

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