Severe Thunderstorm Warning 127, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
328 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
INTERACTING WITH A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE HAS RESULTED IN
NUMEROUS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN POOR LAPSE RATES
AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL
BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS AND PEA SIZE HAIL...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME GIVEN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATERS. FURTHERMORE...CANNOT RULE
OUT A BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD OR WEAK ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN GOOD LOW-
LEVEL INSTABILITY AND BACKGROUND VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING MID/UPPER WAVE. HOWEVER...ANY TORNADO OR FUNNEL CLOUD
WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AND WEAK.

AFTER A LIKELY BREAK THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...MORE
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS...AS DEEP
MOISTURE TRANSPORT COMMENCES AHEAD OF A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL VORT
LOBE...AND A FRONTAL ZONE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD
LIKELIHOOD ONCE AGAIN MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
QUARTER OF KS...AS MODEL CONSENSUS SLOWLY LIFTS THE UPPER WAVE
EAST...AND THE FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH OVER
KS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BY THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN
VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
STRONG/SEVERE STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF SOME
SURFACE HEATING CAN MATERIALIZE IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST KS MONDAY
NIGHT IN VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.

MODEL CONSENSUS BEGINS TO EXIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES EAST OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH NAM IS THE SLOWER SOLUTION KEEPING THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH FURTHER WEST...WHICH WOULD ALLOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO CONTINUE AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL KS. UNSURE WHICH
SOLUTION TO FOLLOW AT THIS POINT...SO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE.
ANOTHER FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL ENERGY
CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO PROGRESS
NORTH/NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN OVER
FAR SOUTHEAST KS ANYTIME LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS POOR AT THIS TIME SURROUNDING THIS
SCENARIO.

ALL-IN-ALL...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCES AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH IT'S CONCEIVABLE
LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONTEMPLATE THIS.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE HEARTLAND SHOULD FINALLY
GET SHUNTED EAST OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD END THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUILDING THICKNESS AND MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND INTO THE 90S FOR MANY AREAS BY LATE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. POSSIBILITY FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY-
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN STORM CHANCES POSSIBLY RE-ENTERING THE
FORECAST FROM THE NORTH.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

A WIDE VARIETY OF WEATHER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS WILL VARY FROM VFR TO IFR WITH
INTERMITTENT INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWER CIGS
WILL WILL GENERALLY OCCUR FROM AN 08 TO 13Z TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  81  68  81 /  70  60  60  40
HUTCHINSON      68  79  65  81 /  70  60  50  30
NEWTON          68  79  66  80 /  70  70  50  40
ELDORADO        68  80  67  79 /  70  70  60  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  81  68  81 /  70  60  60  50
RUSSELL         66  79  64  81 /  50  50  20  20
GREAT BEND      65  79  64  81 /  60  50  20  20
SALINA          68  78  66  80 /  70  70  30  30
MCPHERSON       68  79  65  81 /  70  60  40  30
COFFEYVILLE     71  83  69  81 /  70  70  70  70
CHANUTE         70  82  68  79 /  70  70  70  60
IOLA            70  81  68  79 /  70  70  70  60
PARSONS-KPPF    71  82  69  81 /  70  70  70  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

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