Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
627 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
WORK WEEK...BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

NW TO WEST WINDS HAVE LED TO SOME DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALLOWING MORE SUNSHINE TO HELP DRY THINGS
OUT. HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND THUS BETTER INSTABILITY LIES TO
THE SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A
WEAK IMPULSE IN THE SW-W FLOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
OF OK AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS IMPULSE TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER AND THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THINK SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY54/400 LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER NRN OK...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER.  CERTAINLY NOT
EXPECTING AS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AS YESTERDAY...BUT COULD SEE A FEW
SLOW MOVING STORMS TO ADD TO SOME OF THE RAIN TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST KS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE WEAK BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THE DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH ON WED.  THIS WILL LEAD TO THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR INCREASING ACROSS KS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS JUST WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  COULD ACTUALLY SEE A
DRY DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS WED EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING INSTABILITY...AS SOME WARMING ALOFT ACTUALLY KEEP THINGS
CAPPED OFF.  THINK CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BEGIN OVER WRN KS FOR
WED AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE PUSHES INTO WRN KS.   EASTWARD
PROPAGATION OF THE STORMS WILL BRING THIS CONVECTION WED
EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SOME SORT OF
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (MCS).  THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...BUT MARGINAL SHEAR
PRECLUDES A WIDESPREAD SEVERE CHANCE.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THU WILL PLAY OUT...AS OVERNIGHT MCS ON THU
MAY EFFECTIVELY PUSH ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WILL STILL SEE LOTS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA....SO THINK THE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON THU WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN....MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING....WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FOR THU
NIGHT.  HIGH LEVELS OF INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO SOME STRONG STORMS TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS FOR FOR THU EVENING.

THE UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRI...AS A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH PLAINS.  THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH A FAIRLY STOUT COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.  A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...BUT BULK
SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS.

SO MAINLY THINKING A STRONG TO SEVERE CHANCE AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS DAY...AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS...WHERE THE STORMS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS EAST OVER THE PLAINS...AND COOLER/DRIER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS
MID/UPPER FLOW FLATTENING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT INCREASING EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION...AS HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY ROLLS EAST.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
KS EARLY THIS EVENING...ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE WHERE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE SUPPORTIVE. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT ICT AND CNU TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTY WINDS, HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE, AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COULD LEAD TO AT
LEAST AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

JMC

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PERIODIC EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY THIS
WEEKEND...WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD SATURATED GROUND AND MANY RIVERS/STREAMS RUNNING AT
BANKFUL...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDITIONAL
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. AM HOLDING OFF FOR NOW GIVEN THE RATHER
DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLY BETTER ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FOR
FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  82  65  80 /  30  30  50  40
HUTCHINSON      58  82  64  80 /  20  30  60  40
NEWTON          58  81  64  78 /  30  30  50  40
ELDORADO        60  81  64  80 /  30  20  50  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  82  65  80 /  40  30  50  40
RUSSELL         56  82  63  81 /  10  20  60  40
GREAT BEND      56  81  63  79 /  20  30  60  40
SALINA          57  83  64  80 /  20  20  60  40
MCPHERSON       57  82  64  79 /  20  20  60  40
COFFEYVILLE     60  83  65  80 /  60  30  30  40
CHANUTE         60  82  65  80 /  40  20  30  40
IOLA            61  82  64  79 /  40  20  30  40
PARSONS-KPPF    61  82  65  80 /  40  20  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
415 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-272115-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
415 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

DUE TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS...A HANDFUL OF COUNTY AND RIVER
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND
STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WHILE ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL...50 TO 60 MPH WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY FESTER MUCH OF THE
NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

RIVER FLOODING WILL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD
WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
WEEKEND...WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING THE AREA...MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
RENEWED FLOODING CONCERNS. ADDITIONALLY...WHILE ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...A HANDFUL OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 135.

THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THROUGH THIS WEEK SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH PLANS ALONG
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

ADK/KETCHAM

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